Everybody loves a good trade back.

And if that’s what Detroit Lions general manager Brad Holmes decides to do with the 29th pick at next month’s NFL Draft, you probably won’t hear a ton of rational complaints from the fanbase. It’s typically good business.

But the reality about picking late in the first round is that it inspires far more dreams of trading up. Draft picks are like money — no matter what you have, you always envy the people just ahead of you.

Holmes has dipped his toes into both waters during the first round of his first three drafts. He traded the No. 6 pick (offensive tackle Paris Johnson) to Arizona for Nos. 12 (running back Jahmyr Gibbs), 34 (tight end Sam LaPorta) and 168, the last of which was eventually traded. The year prior, he traded up 20 spots with the Minnesota Vikings for wide receiver Jameson Williams.

We know Holmes will not be drafting for need, but we do suspect — based on past references to character and such — that the Lions are more strict about who they deem draftable players, making it all the more unsurprising when Holmes goes up and gets his guy.In trades involving first-round pick swaps over the last three years, the average movement has been 6.1 spots, so naturally, teams picking in the twenties are going to have a better case than ones picking in the teens. But looking at a a combination of factors — including a team’s recent draft-day trade activity, roster construction, urgency to win and current distance from the 29th pick — we explored the situations of teams picking 10-28 in the hopes of finding potential trade-up partners for the Lions.

10. New York Jets

The Jets haven’t traded back since Holmes became an NFL GM, and as one of the few non-QB-needy teams in this range, they stand to benefit from being surrounded by desperation. The Jets certainly could trade back, but given their desire to quickly make the most of Aaron Rodgers’ presence, going all the way back to 29 seems like a no-win situation for New York.

11. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are poised to trade up for a QB, but under other circumstances, they’d absolutely be a potential trade target. GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has been very active with draft-day trades, particularly with Holmes.

12. Denver Broncos

George Paton hasn’t had a first-round pick in either of his last two drafts, so he hasn’t had much opportunity to trade them for future picks. Like many teams in this range, the Broncos would benefit from getting a top quarterback prospect in the door, but unlike the Vikings, they probably don’t have the firepower to do it. Plus, the Vikings have a good roster, while the Broncos (who also have no second-round pick) need help everywhere. It’d require some heavy lifting for the Lions to get to 12, but it’s easy to see how that could be worth Denver’s time.

13. Las Vegas Raiders

New Raiders GM Tom Telesco made not one draft-day move over the last three years during his tenure as Chargers GM. It’s hard to imagine he goes from that to moving down 16 spots with his first pick at his new job, but hey, stranger things have happened.

14. New Orleans Saints

Organizational familiarity between the Lions and Saints has played out more in the free-agent market than via trade. Is this the year we see some synergy between the two? Unlikely. The Saints have little historical precedent of trading back in the first round and seem destined to make the short-term play until the sun explodes.

15. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have not been wont to move back from their position on Day 1 in recent years, and as a team on the rise with a QB in place, they’ll be able to sit back, watch the fireworks ahead of them, and likely find great value at the midway point of the round. We don’t suspect the Colts will be motivated to move back, let alone all the way back to 29.

16. Seattle Seahawks

After narrowly missing what would have been consecutive playoff appearances — and with a new, defensive-minded head coach in place — the Seahawks find themselves in a similar position to Indy (ready to steal a good defensive player in the mid-teens). GM John Schneider hasn’t been active in the first round in recent years, so it’s hard to label them a “clear” trade target.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars

In what was supposed to be a Super Bowl-contending season, the Jaguars blew it and missed the playoffs. They traded back in the twenties — twice — in 2023 but one has to wonder if they have the luxury of getting cute by trying to move down 12 spots. Or, maybe they’ll just keep doin’ their Jacksonville thing. They’re probably worth a call.

18. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals haven’t been first-round movers since taking Joe Burrow first overall in 2020. While their season sank with Burrow’s health, it has afforded them a pretty valuable pick. What makes them different from the teams picking slightly ahead of them is that they have a legit excuse for missing the playoffs, so they might be more likely to jump on good value if it’s there. Putting aside the complexities of nearing an extension with Amon-Ra St. Brown, the situation with Bengals receiver Tee Higgins could present a different kind of draft-day trade scenario in which the Lions give up pick No. 29 for a player they already know is good. For recent precedent, wide receiver A.J. Brown was traded from the Titans to the Eagles for a first- and third-pick in 2022.

19. Los Angeles Rams

For the first time since selecting Jared Goff with the No. 1 selection in 2016, the Rams in 2024 have a first-round pick. Would they be willing to trade back? We don’t see why not. Holmes and Rams GM Les Snead haven’t done a whole lot of business since the blockbuster Goff-Matthew Stafford trade, but L.A. did engage in six draft-day trades last year and has more high-end capital than it has in a long time.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers made two bigger moves in the draft last year, moving up three spots in the middle of the first round for offensive line help and then moving back 13 spots on Day 2 in a trade with Carolina. It’s impossible to know where Holmes will eye a trade without knowing who he wants, but this feels like a comfortable distance to start projecting more trade scenarios. The Steelers’ needs closely align with Detroit’s, however, so it’s possible a trade might not satisfy both teams.

21. Miami Dolphins

Dolphins GM Chris Grier was ultra-active in the 2021 draft, trading back (with the 49ers, who took quarterback Trey Lance) and then up in the top 10 (with the Eagles to take receiver Jaylen Waddle). All told, most of the teams picking in this range are going to be potential trade partners.

22. Philadelphia Eagles

No team in this range feels like a better potential trade partner than the Eagles and GM Howie Roseman. Roseman, a premier purveyor of the analytically savvy move, traded back twice in 2021, dealing his first-rounder for Brown in 2022 and traded one spot up for Jalen Carter in 2023. The Eagles’ phone is always on.

23. Minnesota Vikings (from Cleveland through Houston)

If it’s true the Vikings are eyeing a quarterback, this pick is not currently available to the Lions. It could be for sale after the Vikings move it for a top-10 pick, though. If the Patriots, for example, were to get picks 11 and 23 for the third-overall pick, it’s fairly possible the upstart New England regime would be willing to move the second pick for more assets.

24. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys’ “all-in” offseason has begun with a whimper but they’ve got the chance to make up for it with a great draft, and there’s no better way to make your fanbase feel better about your draft than selecting as many players as possible. Historically, the Cowboys haven’t been super active in first-round trade backs but they did move from 10 to 12 in a trade with Philadelphia in 2021. They’re a potential trade partner, but only because they’re so close in the order.

25. Green Bay Packers

Five years ago, this probably would have been a clear no, but Detroit’s trade-up with the Packers for Brian Branch last year — plus Holmes’ activity with the Vikings — would seem to indicate that these teams won’t let a little rivalry stop them from trying to get the most bang for their buck. However, the Packers haven’t traded back in the first round since 2018, when New Orleans came up five spots for new Lions free-agent signing Marcus Davenport.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In addition to being an obvious trade candidate because of their proximity to Detroit, Buccaneers GM Jason Licht actually traded six spots back from the 27th pick in a 2022 deal with Jacksonville.

27. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston)

By the sixth pick last year, Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort had already engaged in two major draft-day trades. Arizona also holds the No. 4 pick in this year’s draft. That might not play into their decision to trade 27, but it could also make them more comfortable with turning current assets into future ones.

28. Buffalo Bills

The Bills haven’t done a lot of moving back recently — they did make trades to move up two spots in consecutive first rounds over the last two years — but this is as simple of a trade as it gets. Given the Lions and Bills both have a need at receiver, though, perhaps Buffalo will be too afraid of their player getting taken to make a deal.