Reporters have pregame routines, too. When I arrive at an NBA arena outside of Denver, mine includes familiarizing myself with the most optimal route from press row to the visiting coach’s interview room.
It’s not always as simple as descending the steps of the lower seating bowl and going through a court-side tunnel. If you’ve ever tried swimming against a current, it’s not fun. Sometimes there’s a more convenient staircase or elevator located off the main concourse. Sometimes it’s easier to fight traffic. Either way, indecision is not an option. I learned that last year as a rookie on the Nuggets beat, when poor navigation made me late to Michael Malone’s postgame news conferences in Indiana and Milwaukee.
First, my job is to file a game story at the buzzer. As any beat writer covering any sport will tell you, the more dramatic a game’s ending is, the more difficult it is to file quickly. Buzzer beaters, walk-offs and overtime goals demand a couple of extra minutes. No complaints here. The added stress is often worth it. Those moments are why we all love sports. Why I love documenting sports.
But I’ve been sprinting to make it downstairs a lot lately.
This has been the year of the Cardiac Nuggets. In the last three regular seasons, 14.6% of their games were decided by three or fewer points. They played 12 one-possession games last season, 13 the championship campaign and 11 the year before that. Those are consistent, steady numbers.
They’ve already played nine one-possession games (32.1%) in the first third of this season.
That is why I’m declaring that the Nuggets’ 2025 New Year’s resolution should prioritize stress relief. We could all do better at self-care, right? In their case, possible solutions include winning the first, second and third quarters instead of only the fourth.
“I think the key is, maybe we’ve just gotta be up at halftime,” coach Michael Malone said Friday. “We haven’t lost a game where we’re up at half. So if we’re not up at halftime, go home.”
In the meantime, as long as this is the trend, it’s worth a closer examination of how often the Nuggets are in the pressure cooker, and how capably they’ve handled it. Because the nine one-possession games only scratch the surface.
There’s the fact that Denver has won five games after trailing by double digits in the last 10 minutes of the fourth quarter, and that no other team in the league has pulled that off more than twice.
Or that in the last 90 seconds of regulation in Nuggets games, there have been:
• 10 ties
• 18 lead changes (excluding lead changes that occurred in OT)
• 10 winning teams that trailed during the last 1:30
• 6 game-tying or game-winning FGs in the last 10 seconds
There are even more thrilling finishes that aren’t accounted for in those stats, such as Peyton Watson’s buzzer-beating block on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to preserve a win over the Thunder. Denver was protecting the lead for the entirety of the last 90 seconds that night, but the game still came down to the final play.
To make room for moments like those in my assessment of Denver’s late-game theatrics, I thought of a stupid idea to track called GOLP (Game On the Line Possessions). What qualifies as a GOLP, you ask? Possessions during the last 30 seconds of regulation or the last 30 seconds of overtime in which the team with the ball is either tied or trailing by three points or fewer.
Basically, it’s a chance to tie or win the game at a point when you aren’t guaranteed to get the ball back. Gulp.
As I was calculating GOLP for the Nuggets and their opponents so far this season, I admittedly made some judgment calls on what qualifies from a timing standpoint. For instance, when Watson blocked Kyrie Irving’s attempt at a go-ahead 3-pointer on Nov. 10, the 30-second mark occurred during the shot. I didn’t count that, because the majority of the possession had already taken place. I did count Anthony Edwards’ go-ahead floater with 25.7 seconds remaining as a GOLP, however, even though the possession had started with more than 30 seconds. The timing of when he attacked the basket was true to the idea of what we’re evaluating here.
Another example: After Jamal Murray’s game-tying layup with 0.3 seconds left in Toronto, the Raptors were officially credited with getting a full-court heave off before the buzzer. That’s an insufficient opportunity to qualify as a GOLP. But on Nov. 22 against Dallas, Denver needed to go the length of the floor in 3.8 seconds for a game-tying 3, only for Watson to throw away the inbound pass. That did meet my subjective criteria for a possession.
That’s all to say this may be imperfect, but I didn’t want the numbers skewed by technicalities. By my count, 13 of the Nuggets’ first 26 games featured at least one GOLP. So, half of their games through Dec. 22.
In 16 GOLPs, the Nuggets have scored 20 points on 8-of-15 shooting (8 of 12 inside the arc), with a 4-for-6 clip at the foul line and only one turnover. That’s good for a 125.0 offensive rating in those situations (GOLP rating?).
In 15 GOLPs, their opponents are shooting 3 for 16, including 0 for 7 on 3s, totaling only eight points. That’s a 53.3 GOLP rating.
I attempted to devise a formula to measure a team’s success rate on GOLPs, based on the general premise that if you score the necessary points to tie the game or take the lead, that is 100% success, whereas an empty-handed possession is obviously 0%.
The Nuggets, on multiple occasions, have intentionally gone for two when trailing by three on GOLPs. That can’t be considered a flat-out triumphant result because you’re still behind, and the 2-pointer doesn’t guarantee you will accomplish the ultimate goal (which they eventually did, in both Toronto and Brooklyn). I count that as 66.7% success, because you’ve made up two of the three necessary points. If you’re intentionally fouled while down three, it was the opponents’ design to let you make up two of three points — they’re the ones succeeding by giving you 66.7% of the deficit — so converting both free throws counts for 33.3% success in my made-up system. If you’re fouled down three and miss one or both at the line, you’ve effectively failed to extend your chance to win or force overtime, and you need the opponent to make a mistake. That’s 0% success, even if one point was scored.