By my count there have been over 30 train-related studies by the Santa Cruz Regional Transportation Commission (RTC) including an over-the-hill train to Los Gatos, a trolley to Aptos, a train around the bay, a recreational train, a commuter train … And then the practical studies: who runs freight, value of the tracks, value to salvage the tracks, cost to repair the bridges … Each failed to justify a Santa Cruz passenger train.

The latest study is the $9.2 million Zero-Emission Passenger Rail and Trail Project (ZEPRT) due in spring. It adds the “rail-trail” to the mix. The effect is to contort everything trying to fit a train and trail together into the narrow corridor designed solely for a single railroad track.

ZEPRT’s train portion proposes elevating the train tracks overhead (at $600 million/mile) in some places and moving the tracks entirely off the corridor in others including through residences. This would add $400 million to its already unaffordable $2 billion price tag. Another idea is placing a chain-link fence the full length of the Boardwalk to protect amusement park goers from getting hit by the proposed commuter train passing directly in front of the Boardwalk, effectively blocking off the Boardwalk completely from the street. Finally, ZEPRT recommends no-service to the Westside.

As to the rail-trail, ZEPRT’s marriage to the train forces much of the rail-trail off the rail corridor onto streets including Brommer, Park, Sumner, and San Andreas with speeds up to 45 mph. Almost half (10 of 21 miles) of the “rail-trail” between Santa Cruz and Watsonville would be on streets; no longer a rail-trail but instead a 50-50 mix of bike lanes on busy streets and narrow multiuse paths on the rail corridor.

As long as the train’s frustrating and futile focus remains, rail-trail costs soar. For example, starting south from the Boardwalk to State Park Drive are 6½ miles of rail-trail ready to construct. Originally estimated at $31 million, it’s on hold because the cost has risen to over $171 million. This works out to $26 million/trail-mile. For comparison, our new Highway 1 freeway lanes cost $13 million/lane-mile. Something’s wrong when a trail costs twice that of a freeway lane.

Farther south is worse. The next 11 trail-miles is estimated between $400 million and $500 million. That’s $35 million-$45 million per trail-mile! The 32-mile rail-trail would be well over $700 million if ever completed. Why so high? Because fitting a trail next to tracks into a narrow corridor created for a single train track requires excavation 15-20 feet into the hillsides plus miles of costly retaining walls.

What’s a reasonable cost? $5 million per trail-mile including overhead. The RTC’s original 2015 rail-trail plan had $4 million/trail-mile ($5 million/mile with inflation) prepared with no significant retaining walls, etc. Similarly, Sonoma-Marin recently completed 21 miles of their rail-trail for $4.3 million/trail-mile also including overhead, so it can be done.

The ZEPRT study is expected to be completed this spring, and it will likely uncover additional issues. Predictably, it will recommend yet another study — another train study. Meanwhile, the RTC will continue to promote its progress on the rail-trail, celebrating each new million-dollar grant while downplaying the reality that there are still insufficient funds to complete the project. With every new phase, trail costs will continue to rise, and South County will once again be told to place its rail-trail on the street. The RTC will persist in ignoring the train project’s impracticality while sidestepping the trail’s soaring costs — costs that could have been avoided had the project been completed nearly a decade ago. Ultimately, no Measure D rail-trail funds will be left for South County, as they’ve been spent on retaining walls, all in anticipation of that illusive myth that a train might one day be built if the next study just says so.

Until then we can all chant, “Long live the train studies!”

Carey Pico is a retired materials scientist. He also is co-founder of Trail Now — an organization focused on producing a financially viable and complete trail on the rail corridor.