Recent wildfires not only brought lose and heartache to the residents of the Los Angeles area, they also scorched state, city and county politics. While the initial voting in the races for California governor and Los Angeles mayor is more than a year away memories of how politicians dealt with the fires and its aftermath will linger.
With Governor Gavin Newsom term limited from pursing another four years, already a half-dozen individuals have declared their candidacy for governor while a handful of other potential and well-known politicians are considering a run.
California was set to be an anti-Trump state with a slew of lawsuits projected to be filed against the 47th president’s new administration, much as occurred when Trump was the 45th president. Newsom set the pace for such action by calling for a special session of the legislature days after Trump was elected to “Trump-proof” the state. The governor asked legislators for funds to power lawsuits against potential actions offered by the new administration.
Then came the fires.
Newsom has since softened his tone toward Trump as he seeks federal help in confronting the need for dollars and resources to rebuild. What path will others who want to follow Newsom as governor take considering the need for federal aid for the fire victims? Attorney General Rob Bonta, who is rumored to be considering a gubernatorial run, has already filed a lawsuit against Trump. How aggressive will he be in pulling the trigger on other lawsuits? Will other gubernatorial candidates modify strident appeals for California resistance to the administration?
Prior to the wildfires there was no sense that Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass’s effort for a second term would face formidable obstacles. Not now. Bass has already taken a beating from residents and commentators about her actions around the fires. Bass has been questioned for being out of the country while the threat of fire was on the horizon as well as reducing the budget for the fire department. The publisher of the Los Angeles Times expressed public regret that his newspaper’s editorial board had endorsed Bass for mayor.
Bass has the chance to re-shape her tattered image as she drives the efforts to rebuild in the fire’s aftermath, but the fires have suddenly created high hurdles to a second term.
One who could be helped politically because of the wildfire is former L.A. mayoral candidate Rick Caruso. Caruso was out front criticizing Mayor Bass’s fire response. More, he’s a builder and developer, attributes that will come in handy as sections of the city seek to rebuild.
Political prognosticators have suggested Caruso might be one of the possible gubernatorial candidates. He is positioned better for another try as mayor of Los Angeles. He has name recognition already in L.A., something that would come at a high cost statewide should he seek the governorship. He has issues to exploit against the incumbent mayor generated by the fire and rebuild.
There’s another election a bit further away that could be affected by the wildfires that scarred different sections of Los Angeles County. By a narrow margin, L.A. County voters last November supported a ballot measure that would expand the County Board of Supervisors and create a position of elected Chief Executive Officer — essentially a county mayor. The first election for the new elected CEO position is in 2028.
Four years from now, the rebuild from the fires will still be ongoing, keeping the memories of the fire’s devastation and elected officials’ responses fresh in mind. Current Supervisor Chair Kathryn Barger, whose district contains the burned down town of Altadena, has been visible in leading the county effort in confronting the fire. Her term-limited time in office coincidentally ends in 2028 and the new county CEO position may be appealing to her.
Barger opposed the ballot measure that created the elected CEO post. Not true of Third District Supervisor Lindsey Horvath who initiated the proposal. Horvath also received a lot of attention over the fires representing Pacific Palisades. There is little doubt she would be interested in the CEO post backed by her greater visibility to county voters.
The wildfires not only altered the physical landscape; wildfires altered the political landscape as well.
Joel Fox is an adjunct professor at Pepperdine University’s Graduate School of Public Policy