Extending Trump-era tax cuts will be a top priority once the president-elect takes office, but middle- and upper-income Californians are unlikely to get as big a break as people elsewhere.

The problem is that the current Trump tax cuts include limits on the federal income tax deduction for state and local taxes.

President-elect Donald Trump has said he wants to lift that cap, currently $10,000 per return, but that’s going to be difficult in a Congress that has not been enthusiastic about lifting the cap.

Not only would it cost about $1.2 trillion over 10 years, but it’s widely seen as a tax break for the wealthy.

Republicans, who will control the Senate in 2025 for the first time in four years, and will run the House, have said a top goal is to quickly extend the 2017 tax cuts set to expire at the end of next year.

“We will lock in the Trump tax cuts to drive economic growth to protect struggling families from an unprecedented tax hike,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., wrote in a letter to colleagues after Election Day last week.

The letter did not mention the state and local tax deduction, referred to as SALT.

Extending tax cuts

The 2017 tax cut package was one of Trump’s biggest initiatives during his first term. No Democrats voted for the plan.

The legislation dramatically changed the way many individuals and businesses figure taxes.

Gone was the personal exemption, which could be deducted from total income, but the standard deduction was sharply increased, making itemizing deductions less appealing. Individual tax rates were generally lower and the top rate went from 39.6% to 37%.

Here is an analysis from Washington’s Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, a progressive research company, assuming the cap stays intact. Its national data is based on slightly different income averages and is virtually identical to studies from nonpartisan groups. The first tax cut plan figure shown is for California residents. The second figure is the national average.

• Lowest 20% of California incomes, up to $30,500, tax cut plan saves $130. National average is about $110.

• Second 20%, $30,600 to $57,900. Tax cut plan saves $590. National average $510.

• Third 20%, $57,900 to $103,200. Tax cut plan saves $990, same as the national average.

• Fourth 20%, $103,200 to $170,300. Tax cut plan saves $1,000. National average $1,450.

• Next 15%, $170,300 to $438,800. Tax cut plan saves $1,920. National average, $2,750.

• Next 4%, $438,800 to $1.09 million. Tax cut plan saves $11,770. National average, $11,440.

• Top 1%. $1.09 million and above. Tax cut plan savings $6,890. National average $45,790.

Even in California and New York, most high-income households got a big tax cut,” said Richard Auxier, principal policy associate at the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center in Washington.

But, he said,the inability to deduct all state and local taxes in high-income states such as California meant people in lower tax states got a bigger break.

“Take the cap out and that gap goes away,” Auxier said.

Impact on Sacramento, Valley

Average state and local taxes per itemized taxpayers were $16,235 in Sacramento County, according to a Tax Foundation study using information from 2020 tax returns.

Other area taxpayers also found they lost deductions. State and local taxes in El Dorado County averaged $22,607. Averages were $17,419 in Fresno County, $19,484 in San Luis Obispo County, $13,220 in Merced County and $15,898 in Stanislaus County.

The highest average deductions in California were in San Mateo County, $81,508, and San Francisco County, $77,313.

Miklos Ringbauer, founder and principal of MiklosCPA Inc., a Southern California accounting company, had hope that repealing the SALT cap “is probably going to happen.” Trump is taking office with a mandate for change, particularly on the economy, and repeal was one of his proposals during the campaign. And, said Ringbauer, repeal could happen “purely because his own donors are in the same situation and hurting.”

Doing away with the SALT cap has been discussed for years, particularly among lawmakers from California and high tax states, but has gone nowhere. One of the big obstacles is the price, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Another big reason is that many Democrats recoil at the idea of backing a break whose chief beneficiaries are the wealthy.

But Republicans will control the Senate, and the House.

They’re expected to use a parliamentary maneuver that would allow a tax cut to pass the Senate with 51 votes, instead of the 60 usually needed to stop unlimited debate.

Anticipate “the entire tax code is going to be reviewed,” said Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, who’s expected to chair the tax-writing Finance Committee.