It’s finally over. The political advertising may have ended a month ago, but just recently California’s General Election was officially certified. At the same time, UC Irvine School of Social Ecology released the results of its Orange County voter sentiment survey, shedding light on electoral trends in the county.

The election results and the survey make one thing clear: the days when Orange County was a formidable Republican stronghold are gone. Instead, as evidenced by the past three presidential elections, Orange County is emerging as a swing county and political bellwether — reflecting national voter sentiment.

For decades, Orange County was synonymous with Reagan-style conservatism, consistently supporting Republican candidates. The county was characterized by its affluent suburbs, pro-business policies and a deeply rooted sense of traditional values, earning a reputation as a conservative heartland amid the broader liberal trends of the state.

However, demographic shifts, changing social attitudes and evolving political priorities have reshaped the political landscape.

A growing and diverse population, particularly among Latino, Asian American and younger voters, has contributed to a more moderate or even progressive tilt in recent years. These shifts culminated in a significant turning point during the 2016 presidential election when Orange County voted for a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time in over 80 years, favoring Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, while simultaneously voting for the Republican candidate in four of the county’s seven Congressional districts.

The trend continued in subsequent elections. In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in Orange County by nine points, but the congressional margin only favored Democrats by six points. Two years later during the mid-term election, Orange County swung back toward the right — giving Republicans a two-point margin in congressional elections. And in 2024, Democrats’ margin on the presidential ballot was only 2.6 points, a one-point margin for congressional races, and a two-point defeat in the U.S. Senate race in Orange County.

In partisan races, Orange County has become a politically dynamic region, with competitive elections reflecting its status as a microcosm of broader national political trends. As a result, Orange County voters were inundated with political advertising, particularly in Congressional Districts 45 and 47, which accounted for more than $60 million in political spending. This past election also saw significant realignment of party loyalties nationally and in Orange County, with President Trump making gains among low- and middle-income voters and Latinos.

However, on non-partisan issues like ballot measures, Orange County voters still lean much further to the right.

Take for example Proposition 32, which proposed an $18 minimum wage increase, had the closest margin in the state, narrowly lost by just one point statewide — but in Orange County, it was defeated by a 23-point margin. Similarly, Proposition 5, which would have made it easier to pass local bonds, was defeated by 10 points statewide, but in Orange County the margin was again 23 points. These results underscore Orange County’s conservative leanings on economic issues, highlighting a clear distinction between its partisan voting trends and its preferences on fiscal policy.

Orange County is a pivotal region reflecting broader national trends, including the complexities of political realignment. With its position as a swing county firmly ensconced, we can expect competitive congressional and legislative races for the foreseeable future. This means only a brief respite before Orange County voters are once again inundated with political advertising.

Tom Ross is the president and CEO of Swing Strategies. He has advised Orange County businesses, nonprofits and political campaigns for more than 30 years.