Hurricane season is almost over — the Atlantic season technically ends on Nov. 30 — but we’re not at the finish line yet. While November historically accounts for just 6 percent of average Atlantic hurricane activity, a new storm might be brewing. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting 40 percent odds that a named storm will form in the western Caribbean within the next week.

The next storm name on the list is “Patty.” Still, it’s unclear whether anything will form, and it’s too early to speculate on potential strength, timing or impacts. But if it does form, it could be a threat to land.

Weather models indicate any hypothetical storm system would drift north or northeast, potentially moving near Jamaica or Cuba or even meandering into the Gulf of Mexico.

The United States has only been hit by four November hurricanes dating to 1851. One of them was Category 1 Nicole, which made landfall near Vero Beach, Florida, early in the morning on Nov. 10, 2022. In the Caribbean, November storms aren’t very uncommon because the waters remain warm all the way into the autumn.

The season to date has been about 29 percent more active than average. That’s made it a busy season, but far short of the “hyperactive” one that many experts were predicting before the season’s onset.

The United States sustained five hurricane landfalls — Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene and Milton — and Florida was hit four times.

Helene, which killed more than 200 people with disastrous inland flooding, was the deadliest hurricane to make landfall on the U.S. mainland since Katrina.

Where a system could form

Meteorologists are keeping close tabs on the central and western Caribbean. That’s where a broad zone of low pressure, showery weather and spin called the Central American Gyre, or CAG, will evolve in the days ahead.The CAG itself isn’t something to worry about. But any thunderstorm complexes embedded within its large-scale gyre could act to consolidate vorticity, or spin, tightening it into a named storm. That’s how Milton formed.

When a system could develop

Weather models usually struggle with CAGs. We know that the CAG will be present, but we don’t have the ability to simulate individual thunderstorm complexes days in advance. Because of that, we can’t pinpoint where within the envelope of the CAG a system might form.

These situations require forecasting the ingredients for a storm rather than trying to predict the storm itself.

Assuming something does form, the most likely time frame is sometime between Halloween and Nov. 3.

There will also be a broad region of upward-moving air moving over the Atlantic around that time frame. That’s with something called a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave.

It’s a large-scale overturning circulation, and when the enhanced branch, or zone of ascending air, spreads over the Atlantic, it can make it easier for named storms to form.

What else to know

Overarching steering currents would slowly nudge any storm north or northeast if it comes together within that time frame.

Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica should be paying close attention to the status of the system.

It looks like this might be the last obvious opportunity for a storm to form. Barring any random oddities, we might be looking at the final chapter of hurricane season 2024.