Free agency is an exciting time on the NFL calendar, with dozens of players signing with new teams and hundreds of millions in contracts being awarded. This year, free agency begins at 4 p.m. on March 14.
But before there are comings, there have to be goings. Dozens of players will be released over the next three weeks, and hundreds of millions of dollars will be wiped away and erased forever. It’s the unfortunate reality of the only sports league where contracts aren’t fully guaranteed.
Let’s take a look at the players who are in danger of becoming salary cap casualties this offseason. All contract numbers are from the NFL Players Association, with an assist from OverTheCap.com:
■ Most of the Legion of Boom. This will be a fascinating situation to watch, because most of Seattle’s key defensive players are getting older and entering the final year of their contracts.
The Seahawks can save $11 million in cash and salary cap on Richard Sherman; $8.5 million cash and cap on Earl Thomas; $7.5 million on pass rusher Cliff Avril; $7.2 million on linebacker K.J. Wright.
Safety Kam Chancellor is signed for two more years, and he has $6.8 million guaranteed for 2018. But it’s guaranteed for injury only now, and doesn’t become fully guaranteed until March 19. Chancellor suffered a season-ending neck injury last year, and it is unclear if he will be able to resume his career.
Not only are these players in danger of being released, but they are also good trade candidates due to their expiring contracts and low amounts of dead salary cap money.
The Seahawks won’t get rid of everyone this offseason — Avril is the only likely cut for now. But only Bobby Wagner and Michael Bennett are feeling any sort of security about where they will play in 2018.
■ Most of the Chiefs’ defense. They already said goodbye to Derrick Johnson, who will not be re-signed in free agency next month. And on Friday they agreed to trade franchise cornerback Marcus Peters to the Rams, a move that is likely more about locker room fit than economics (Peters costs just $1.74 million this year).
Outside linebacker Tamba Hali has also likely played his final snap in KC, as he will save the Chiefs $8 million in cash and $7.7 million in cap space. And defensive end Allen Bailey is also likely gone, as they can save $6 million in cash and cap. But Justin Houston, with his massive $15 million salary and $20.6 million cap number, is likely safe.
■ Eagles wide receiver Torrey Smith and defensive end Vinny Curry. The defending champions are a little tight against the cap and need to do some maneuvering. Two obvious ways to create space are contract extensions for Brandon Graham and Jason Kelce. But Smith ($5 million in cash and cap savings, no dead money) and Curry ($9 million in cash savings, $6 million in cap savings) should be nervous right now.
■ Bills wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin. Buffalo traded third- and seventh-round picks for Benjamin, but his salary shoots up from $1 million last year to $8.459 million this year with his fifth-year option. The Bills can release Benjamin with no salary cap or cash penalty before March 14, at which point his salary becomes fully guaranteed.
■ Dolphins center Mike Pouncey, tight end Julius Thomas, wide receiver Jarvis Landry. A report last week from the Miami Herald expressed optimism that Pouncey will return in 2018, but his situation is unsettled. Pouncey has chronic hip issues and can save the Dolphins $8 million in cash, $6 million in cap space, and carries only $2 million in dead money. Thomas ($6.6 million cash and cap) is as good as gone. And the Dolphins can’t release Landry after giving him the franchise tag last week, but they are reportedly trying to trade him and his $16 million salary.
■ Jets defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson, and running backs Matt Forte and Bilal Powell. Wilkerson is done in New York, and he will be released before March 17, when his $16.75 million salary would become fully guaranteed. The Jets will save $3 million cash and cap on Forte, who could be an interesting option for the Patriots. And Powell will save the Jets $4 million cash and cap.
■ Patriots wide receiver Chris Hogan. He seems like a good value for 2018, with a $3 million salary and $500,000 in game-day bonuses ($31,250 for each game he is active). But Hogan has no guaranteed money this year. He also, curiously, fired his longtime agent before the 2017 season and hired Erik Burkhardt and Andy Ross of Select Sports Group, a higher-profile agency that represents Danny Amendola, Johnny Manziel, and others. Players generally only switch agents when they are preparing to sign a new contract, not two years before they hit free agency. Does Hogan know something?
■ Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant. Jerry Jones wants Bryant back, but director of player personnel Stephen Jones may talk him out of it. Bryant carries $8 million in dead money this year, but the Cowboys can save $12.5 million in cash and $8.5 million off the salary cap by releasing Bryant, who produced some of the worst numbers of his career in 2017 and will be 30 in November.
■ Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib and quarterback Trevor Siemian. Talib is as good as gone, with $11 million in cash and cap savings and only $1 million in dead money.
Siemian is cheap this year ($1.9 million), but a cheap quarterback is a valuable trade asset, and he can fetch the Broncos a nice return, especially if they wait until an injury hits in training camp. Emmanuel Sanders is also a candidate, with $8.1 million in cash savings and $5.56 million in cap savings.
■ Everyone in Chicago. Quarterback Mike Glennon, the darling of last year’s free agent period, offers $10 million in cash savings and $11.5 million in cap savings, so he’s as good as gone. Guard Josh Sitton ($8 million cash and cap) and defensive lineman Pernell McPhee ($7.6 million cash, $7 million cap) have been told they won’t be returning. Tight end Dion Sims can save the Bears $6 million in cash and $5.67 million in cap. Receiver Markus Wheaton can save them $5 million cash and cap. Jerrell Freeman, Willie Young, Marcus Cooper . . . the list goes on. Total housecleaning in Chicago.
■ Packers wide receiver Jordy Nelson. Nelson might survive this offseason, but he’s not long for Green Bay. Nelson had a rough 2017 season with 53 catches for 482 yards and six touchdowns in 15 games. Turning 33 in May, Nelson is entering the last year of his contract, set to make $10.25 million with none of it guaranteed.
■ Others to watch: Steelers cornerback Joe Haden, Redskins cornerback Josh Norman, Giants wide receiver Brandon Marshall, Browns cornerback Jason McCourty, Raiders linebacker Bruce Irvin, Raiders wide receiver Michael Crabtree, Rams defensive tackle Michael Brockers, Rams linebacker Mark Barron, Vikings running back Latavius Murray, Jaguars wide receiver Allen Hurns, Bengals wide receiver Brandon LaFell, and Cardinals running back Adrian Peterson.
TWO-WAY STREET
Garoppolo, 49ers deal is a win-win
The five-year, $137 million deal Jimmy Garoppolo signed with the 49ers earlier this month is a rarity — a big win for both the player and team. It’s also a fascinating portrayal of NFL market trends, and the popularity of the pay-as-you-go approach.
Though it’s a five-year deal, the 49ers structured it in a way that really guarantees Garoppolo just two seasons to prove himself as the starting quarterback. Garoppolo has full guarantees through 2019, and injury-only guarantees for 2020-22. The 49ers also gave him just a $7 million signing bonus, which is prorated for salary cap purposes over five years. If the 49ers want to release him after two seasons, they will only have to carry $4.2 million in dead money.
Why would Garoppolo accept such a contract structure? Because the 49ers gave him a fat wad of cash up front. They’re overpaying him in Year 1, to the tune of $42.6 million cash. That’s from the $7 million signing bonus, $6.2 million base salary, $1.4 million in game-day and workout bonuses, and a $28 million roster bonus due on March 17. Garoppolo will carry a salary cap number of $37 million in 2018. In his second season, Garoppolo will earn $18.6 million cash, to give him $61.2 million over two seasons, or approximately $5 million more than he would have earned with two franchise tags.
The 49ers were happy to do this, of course. They’re flush with $100 million in salary cap space, and still have more than enough to sign whomever they want in free agency. Going big on Garoppolo also helps the 49ers reach their 2017-20 spending requirements.
Garoppolo’s final three, non-guaranteed seasons will pay him $25.2 million, $25.5 million, and $25.6 million. If Garoppolo is great, those numbers will actually be pretty reasonable for a franchise quarterback and fall in line with a rising salary cap. If he’s less than great, the 49ers can get out of the contract with relative ease.
Garoppolo also did well to get a lot of money up front, and not lock himself into too long of a deal, as Aaron Rodgers and J.J. Watt are experiencing now. One prominent NFL agent predicted that this will be the route taken by most of this year’s top free agents. Garoppolo turns 27 in November, and should be 30 or 31, right in his prime, when it’s time to talk about his next contract.
TAKE YOUR PICK
Quarterbacks, start your engines
Seven teams are going to be playing quarterback musical chairs over the next few weeks, and here are one man’s educated guesses on how the seats will get filled:
■ Vikings — Case Keenum and Teddy Bridgewater. It’s mighty tempting to take a run at Kirk Cousins, but he’s going to cost $30-plus million for 2018, and is he really that much of an upgrade over Keenum and Bridgewater? Bridgewater is beloved in Minnesota, and I believe the Vikings will bring him back on a short-term, prove-it deal. Keenum comes back either on the franchise tag or a one-year deal, then Keenum and Bridgewater battle it out for the starting job.
■ Jets — Cousins. The Jets know they need a quarterback, they know rookies need time to develop, and they love the splashy signing. They should have upward of $50 million in cap space, and Cousins can turn this team into an instant playoff contender.
■ Broncos — A.J. McCarron and a rookie. They’ll be keeping Paxton Lynch. McCarron can come in on a one-year deal and keep the seat warm, a la Mike Glennon. And the Broncos can use the No. 5 draft pick on a quarterback.
■ Browns — Rookie. They have to use the No. 1 pick on a quarterback, right? Right???
■ Cardinals — Sam Bradford and a rookie. The Cardinals will trade up from 15 to grab a quarterback, but also sign Bradford, a professional place-holder.
■ Bills — Tyrod Taylor and a rookie. Taylor and his $16 million salary will likely survive one more year in Buffalo, but he’s not the long-term answer. The Bills have enough ammunition to make a big trade up for a quarterback — picks 21 and 22, and two 2s.
■ Eagles — Carson Wentz and Nick Foles. Here’s doubting any team will blow the Eagles away with an offer for Foles, and that they’ll keep him for $7 million as the backup instead of trading him just for the sake of doing it.
ETC.
Polian sees WR in Jackson’s future
Former Colts president turned ESPN analyst Bill Polian got people fired up again last week when he said that Heisman-winning quarterback Lamar Jackson should translate to wide receiver in the NFL.
But while he hurt his credibility by claiming Jackson is “short’’ — he’s listed at 6 feet 3 inches — Polian’s evaluation was not mean-spirited. In fact, it may end up being good advice for Jackson.
“Clearly not the thrower that the other guys are. His accuracy isn’t there,’’ Polian said. “So I would say, don’t wait to make that change, don’t be like the kid from Ohio State [Terrelle Pryor] and be 29 when you make the change.’’
For all we know, Polian might be right about Jackson, an electric athlete who is not a polished pocket passer. And making the switch to receiver now, instead of in the middle of his career, could earn him extra millions. Of course, there’s also nothing wrong with Jackson pursuing his dream and trying to make it as an NFL quarterback. But there was nothing wrong with Polian’s overall message.
Extra points
He will forever be a Patriot, but kicker Adam Vinatieri just signed on for his 13th season in Indianapolis, compared with just 10 in New England. Vinatieri, who turned 45 in December, is just 58 points shy of Morten Andersen for most career points (2,544). “I really wanted to break that record wearing a Colts helmet, where I’ve played the majority of my career,’’ Vinatieri said. “It’s unbelievable to be able to play another season here.’’ He is also six field goals shy of Andersen’s record of 565 . . . Johnny Manziel’s attempted comeback would be a little easier to root for if he didn’t bombard us with #comebackszn hashtags on all of his various social media platforms. Is he trying to get back into football or make a quick buck? Manziel is participating in the new Spring League in Austin, Texas this April, and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats hold his rights in the CFL . . . Talented receiver Josh Gordon will be back with the Browns for another season. Since he played in five games last year, one short of the six needed to get an “accrued’’ season, he will be an exclusive-rights free agent, which means only the Browns can sign him. If they decide to move on, he becomes a free agent . . . The Patriots have six players on their roster in 2018 that would be more expensive to cut instead of keep – Stephon Gilmore, Dont’a Hightower, Marcus Cannon, Kyle Van Noy, Duron Harmon, and Brian Hoyer . . . If Jason McCourty is released by the Browns, the Patriots should take a look. He’d probably be willing to play for peanuts, since he has never played in a postseason game in nine NFL seasons . . . A neat addition to this year’s draft: Any player that attends the first two nights in Dallas will have his high school coach flown to the event, on the NFL’s dime. High school coaches never get enough recognition.
For teams that don’t have new head coaches, the offseason program officially begins on April 16 — also known as Bill Belichick’s 66th birthday.
Ben Volin can be reached at ben.volin@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @BenVolin. Material from interviews, wire services, other beat writers, and league and team sources was used in this report.
