When: Sunday, 1 p.m.
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
TV, radio: CBS, WBZ-FM (98.5)
When the Dolphins run
Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams are splitting the workload now that Jay Ajayi — still the Dolphins’ leading rusher this season — is running wild in Philadelphia. Neither Drake nor Williams is the workhorse type, and the Dolphins have played from behind a ton, limiting their opportunities. Drake (6 feet 1 inch, 211 pounds) is tall and thin but will lean into defenders with deceptive power. He’s a bouncy runner who doesn’t always stick to the script; he sometimes appears to be winging it rather than following the planned path. Drake has good burst to the line but his vision and patience are inconsistent, and he’ll sometimes hit traffic when an open lane is available. When he guesses right, Drake can string moves together and will smoothly slide through the second level before turning on the jets. Williams (5-11, 224) is a thick, muscular back who runs at good pad level and does a solid job sidestepping hits. Like Drake, he lacks patience, but that is offset somewhat by his ability to power through defenders. Center Mike Pouncey is smart, strong, and surly — the optimal qualities you’re looking for at this spot. He can rag-doll his first guy before chopping down linebackers at the second level. Rookie Isaac Asiata, a big, smart, and deceptively athletic player, likely will fill in at right guard for injured veteran Jermon Bushrod. Left guard Ted Larsen is strong but lacks athleticism.
EDGE: Patriots
RUSHING YARDS PER GAME
Miami offense: 80.4 (29th)
New England defense: 119.9 (t-24th)
When the Dolphins pass
Matt Moore is among the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL. He has experience (this is his 11th season), poise, and can carry a team for short periods. Problems surface when he is asked to bear all the responsibilities for an extended amount of time. Moore has good mechanics and decent athleticism. The 6-foot-3-inch, 219-pounder sets up quickly and has a consistent and accurate delivery. He has been around long enough to see it all, yet some of his reads and decisions are suspect. He will try to force balls into tiny windows, and he no longer has the zip to do that with consistent success. Like a lot of QBs, he’s streaky, and it’ll become evident early whether he’s running hot or cold. Moore has lots of quality receiving options. Jarvis Landry is special. The 5-11, 208-pounder is a crisp route runner with excellent hands and body control and a nice fighting spirit; he won’t go down without a battle. Kenny Stills (6-1, 196) has a great first step and will use that and strong hands to gain separation (making up for a lack of speed). DeVante Parker (6-3, 212) is a tough receiver who will compete throughout his route and go after every ball. He has excellent focus and body control but lacks elite speed. Tight end Julius Thomas (6-5, 265) has good size and athleticism and can effectively shield his defender from the ball. He makes spectacular grabs but also has some head-shaking drops.
EDGE: Patriots
PASSING YARDS PER GAME
Miami offense: 211.9 (20th)
New England defense: 282.0 (32d)
When the Patriots run
Dion Lewis has taken the lead role in New England’s ground game. The 5-foot-8-inch, 195-pounder runs bigger than his size and with a great mix of agility, balance, and power. Lewis has super vision, changes directions and speed fluidly, and has a variety of open-field moves. He can run between the tackles but he also can bounce outside and zoom away from defenders. Rex Burkhead (5-10, 210) possesses deceptive quickness and elusiveness and can be an effective inside runner. He shows a good burst to the line of scrimmage and keeps his legs pumping after first and second contact. When he slips through creases at the line of scrimmage, he finds cutback lanes quickly and can evade pursuers with good lateral moves. James White (5-10, 205) has solid size and excellent quickness. He’s fast to the hole and will slide past would-be tacklers with sudden and shifty moves. Mike Gillislee (5-11, 219) may get back in the mix to help wear down Miami’s formidable front. Gillislee is thick and attacks the line of scrimmage hard and will finish his runs with authority. A lack of patience often results in him getting caught up in early traffic, resulting in short gains or losses. Miami tackles Ndamukong Suh (he’s destructive and dirty) and Jordan Phillips (he’s powerful yet nimble) are tone setters up front. Linebackers Kiko Alonso (he’s an instinctive heat seeker) and Lawrence Timmons (he’s wily and tough) will pursue sideline to sideline.
EDGE: Patriots
RUSHING YARDS PER GAME
New England offense: 106.0 (16th)
Miami defense: 109.9 (14th)
When the Patriots pass
Tom Brady has been on one of those Tom Brady runs. You know, the ones where the league’s best quarterback seemingly completes every pass to every receiver in every situation. Brady has a sharp mind, a quick release, and as was evident in Mexico City, a strong arm. Brady has the ultra-quick and speedy Brandin Cooks (17.5 yards per catch on 45 catches) for the chunk plays and ultra-reliable Danny Amendola for the clutch plays (13 conversions on third down). In addition, the Patriots might have the deepest tight end group in the business — when they’re all healthy. Rob Gronkowski attacks defenders and the seam like it’s nobody’s business. Martellus Bennett runs strong routes and has strong hands, but he is dealing with shoulder and hamstring issues. And Dwayne Allen continues to get comfortable in this offense. All three can block their tails off when needed. For the short game, James White, Rex Burkhead, and Dion Lewis are excellent receivers. Despite missing a pair of starters, the offensive line was exceptional against the Raiders. A similar effort will be needed, because the Dolphins can and will attack the pocket from all angles. Cameron Wake is like Flash Gordon off the edge and Ndamukong Suh is like the Incredible Hulk up the middle. Young corners Xavien Howard and Cordrea Tankersley need more polish. Safeties Reshad Jones and T.J. McDonald hit like out-of-control Mack trucks.
EDGE: Patriots
PASSING YARDS PER GAME
New England offense: 304.4 (first)
Miami defense: 229.3 (17th)
Dolphins’ key player: LB Kiko Alonso
An aggressive and competitive player, the Newton-born Alonso chases the ball carrier all over the field until he finds him and punishes him. The 6-foot-3-inch, 239-pounder plays angry, and his motor always is in high gear.
How he beats you: With Kuechly-like anticipation. Alonso has excellent instincts and presnap recognition; it’s hard to fool this guy. He can shoot the A gap and make disruptive plays in the backfield and also can drop into coverage and blanket backs and tight ends.
How to shut him down: By frustrating him. It’s important to create traffic jams along his favorite routes. If you don’t provide a few roadblocks, Alonso will take the most direct path to the ball, and chaos – and pain — ensue.
Dolphins’ keys to victory
1. Fish story: Miami is second in the NFL with 84 accepted penalties, including 33 presnap infractions. Play this sloppy brand of football against the Patriots and they’ll make you pay.
2. Fish wrap: Protect the ball. The Dolphins are a minus-9 in turnover differential and have thrown 13 interceptions. Again, continue this trend and beating the Patriots is impossible.
3. Fish food: Feed the ball to backs Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams and let them attack New England’s front. It takes pressure off the QB and will open up pass options later in the game.
Patriots’ keys to victory
1. Jailbreak: Pressuring the pocket and rattling quarterback Matt Moore is a must. If he finds a rhythm, Miami’s myriad pass catchers will turn in some big plays.
2. Shoot to Thrill: The Tom Brady-to-Brandin Cooks deep ball is a thing of beauty (anyone else have Grogan-to-Morgan flashbacks?), so take a few chances downfield.
3. Thunderstruck: Get a helmet on Cameron Wake and turn him outside to prevent him from crashing the pocket. This allows Brady an extra second or two to step up and deliver strikes.
PREDICTION: Patriots 35, Dolphins 19
Jim McBride can be reached at james.mcbride@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @globejimmcbride.
