The Patriots have developed a saying over the past 15 years, thanks to their success — the NFL season doesn’t really start until Thanksgiving.
(Of course, when I covered the Dolphins from 2007-12, the NFL season was pretty much over by Thanksgiving. We’re pretty spoiled here in New England.)
So, now the real football begins. Six weeks to determine the playoff field, home-field advantage, the MVP race, and in Cleveland and San Francisco, the race for the No. 1 draft pick.
In today’s Globe, we broke down the AFC playoff race and whether anyone can overcome the Patriots.
In this space, let’s take a look at some other top NFL story lines as we head into the final six-week stretch:
■ Will the Eagles, Saints, or Vikings lose again? The 9-1 Eagles and 8-2 Saints have each won eight games in a row, and the 9-2 Vikings have won seven in a row.
The Eagles look like the class of the NFL, ranked in the top 10 in points scored, points allowed, total offense, and total defense.Carson Wentz has blossomed into a top MVP candidate in just his second NFL season, not only compiling great stats (25 touchdowns to five interceptions) but also displaying impressive toughness and leadership as his Eagles pile up blowout wins. Philly has tough games at the Seahawks and Rams on the docket, but otherwise look like a good bet for the No. 1 playoff seed.
The Saints have been one of the more fascinating turnaround stories this year. After starting 0-2, and allowing 32.5 points per game, the Saints have not lost since their Week 2 defeat to the Patriots and are allowing just 16.4 points per game since then. The Saints still have two games against the Falcons, one against the 7-3 Panthers, and one at the 7-3 Rams. But Drew Brees plus a stingy defense equals a team that no one wants to face right now.
And the Vikings continue to defy logic with journeyman quarterback Case Keenum. Now on his third team in six NFL seasons, Keenum is having a career year with 14 touchdowns, five interceptions, a 66.1 completion percentage, and a 7-2 record in place of Sam Bradford. Of course, the Vikings are still led by a dominant defense that is top five in the league in points allowed and yards allowed. But Keenum and the offense are also top 10 in points scored and total yards, and in the last two weeks racked up impressive wins over the Rams and Lions. Teddy Bridgewater is ready to return, but Keenum has been playing so well that the Vikings are sticking with the hot hand.
The Vikings beat the Saints in Week 1, so they will hold the tiebreaker for the No. 2 playoff seed.
■ Who are the dark horses? In the AFC, look to the Jaguars and Chargers. The Jags have a ferocious defense that can win games on its own, while the Chargers have a terrific pass rush and a savvy veteran quarterback. After thumping the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, the 5-6 Chargers are just a half-game out of the final playoff spot and should be taken very seriously.
In the NFC, the Seahawks have been beset by injuries and have been riding the roller coaster all year, but Russell Wilson is still a fantastic quarterback, and the Seahawks have too many veterans and too much playoff experience to wilt down the homestretch.
The Falcons also looked like they were suffering from the dreaded Super Bowl hangover, but two straight wins have them at 6-4, and Matt Ryan and Co. have the talent and experience needed to make another deep playoff run.
■ Can Green Bay hang on? The Packers have been fading fast since Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone, losing three of four games and falling to 5-5. But the Packers are still only one game behind the Falcons for the final playoff seed. If they can just tread water with Brett Hundley, there’s an outside chance that Rodgers could return for Week 16 or 17, like he did in 2013, when he missed the final seven games of the season but returned for the playoffs.
But the Packers are only scoring 13.4 points per game with Hundley, and the Packers have tough games at Pittsburgh, at Carolina, at Detroit, and vs. Minnesota still on the schedule.
■ The race for the sixth seeds: The playoff race is still wide open in the AFC. The Ravens currently hold the sixth spot with a 5-5 record, but seven other teams are within one game — Buffalo, Miami, Cincinnati, Houston, Oakland, the Jets, and the Chargers (if you haven’t guessed, we’re betting on the Chargers).
The NFC race is just as tight, but with fewer contenders. The Falcons hold the tiebreaker over the Seahawks thanks to their big win over Seattle last week, but Detroit is lurking a half-game back, though it also lost to the Falcons earlier this year. The Packers are also just one game back, but they’re heading in the wrong direction.
■ The MVP race. Not surprisingly, it’s coming down to a three-way battle between the quarterbacks from the three best teams. Tom Brady, who somehow has only won two MVP awards (2007, 2010), is the favorite in Las Vegas, and currently leads the NFL in passer rating, passing yards per game, and TD:INT ratio (22:2).
Wentz is the sentimental favorite (voters tend to favor new blood), and you’d get no argument from us if he ended up winning the award this year (assuming the Eagles keep winning). And while Brees trails Brady in most passing categories, he’s the engine of the NFL’s most surprising team.
■ The hot seat. At the other end of the spectrum, about a quarter of the league’s head coaches aren’t feeling too comfortable right now.
The Browns have been going for the long play with their rebuild, and haven’t given Hue Jackson a competent quarterback. But they should still be better than the 1-25 record they have under Jackson.
The Colts have been a mess all season (really for three years), and Chuck Pagano should probably get his résumé ready, especially because his general manager was ready to replace him last year. Ben McAdoo’s offense has been a complete failure this year, and the Giants might be wise to clean house and start fresh this offseason.
John Fox has done a decent enough job despite the Bears’ woeful offense, but it’s clear that he and the front office aren’t on the same page. The Cardinals are a major disappointment at 4-6, and Bruce Arians has had health scares the last few years. Marvin Lewis is perpetually on the hot seat, and a second straight year missing the playoffs could seal his fate. Jay Gruden has lasted four seasons in Washington — an eternity under Dan Snyder — but a third year that ends with no playoffs could spell doom.
And with the Broncos falling apart at the seams and everyone from John Elway to the 53rd player on the roster pointing fingers, Vance Joseph should be feeling a little nervous right now.
ROOM TO GROW
Mexico City not ready for big time
A couple of thoughts on the Patriots’ game in Mexico City last week:
■ The game appeared to be a rousing success. The locals were fired up for the game, the logistics all worked out pretty well (the transportation to and from the game, the safety, the updated locker rooms, the temporary press facilities), and everything seemed to go off without a hitch. Mexico embraced the NFL, and the NFL announced last Sunday that it will return for one game a year through the 2021 season.
But the Mexico City game isn’t ready to be more, either. Estadio Azteca doesn’t have the luxury suites needed to generate significant income. It doesn’t have a suitable press box; we sat on benches in the stands, and it was fine. The Wi-Fi didn’t work for most of the game. For a big event, it felt a bit small time.
The game was great for what it was. It’s a terrific way to spread the NFL internationally and reward Mexican fans for being so supportive of the league. But as far as hosting multiple games in Mexico City, or a Super Bowl, or putting a franchise there, that is still a long ways off.
■ The NFL wants to expand its regular season, wants to expand its International Series to Germany, Canada, and possibly Brazil and Asia, and ideally would like to hold the Super Bowl over Presidents’ Day weekend (and who wouldn’t want the game to be held then, when Monday is a federal holiday?).
So let’s not overthink this. During the 2021 collective bargaining agreement negotiations, the NFL and the players should find a way to expand the regular season to 17 games, with the 17th game being an international game for all teams (eight home, eight road, one international).
Add in a second bye week, and voila, you’ve got the Super Bowl on Presidents’ Day weekend. You’re also generating a lot more money for all parties involved. Everyone wins.
ETC.
Jones says he’s backing down
Jerry Jones has made a stink about Roger Goodell’s contract situation and his displeasure with the league office, even threatening litigation. But after the other NFL owners countered with a “conduct detrimental to the league’’ threat, Jones now is backing down and calling off the dogs.
Except, does anyone really believe that? Jones is arguably the most powerful man in the NFL, and when the 32 owners convene in the Dallas area for a quarterly meeting on Dec. 13, Jones will still command the room and try to convince the other owners not to simply rubber-stamp Goodell’s impending contract extension, which reportedly will pay him about $200 million from 2019-24.
“The business of the standing down there didn’t necessarily mean that you’re not standing up someplace else,’’ Jones told reporters Thursday after the Cowboys’ loss to the Chargers.
Though the owners voted, 32-0, in May to let the six owners of the compensation committee (of which Jones isn’t a member) negotiate and execute a new contract with Goodell, Jones is adamant that all 32 owners will have a voice in the process. He is reportedly calling for a secret ballot at the meeting, per Pro Football Talk, though no one is quite sure exactly what will be on the secret ballot.
“The [compensation] committee is being responsive, and we’re having some real owner participation,’’ Jones said. “I just want to say that we really have had, are having a lot of owner participation. So that’s a part of it. It doesn’t mean at all that we’re not really pursuing what we want to get done, and that is have the owners in a very positive way give input and make everyone, including ourselves, accountable.’’
Peterman not fully at fault
Poor Nathan Peterman. It’s not his fault that he was woefully unprepared to start his first NFL game last week, a 54-24 shellacking from the Chargers in which Peterman threw five interceptions in the first half. Blame it on Bills first-year coach Sean McDermott, who threw Peterman, a fifth-round pick, to the wolves — on the road and against one of the top defenses in the NFL. And McDermott did it even though Tyrod Taylor played credibly enough to get the Bills to a 5-4 record entering last Sunday.
Peterman threw five interceptions in just 24 pass attempts before being benched for Taylor at halftime. By comparison, Taylor has just three interceptions all season.
For a totally unfair comparison, Tom Brady has thrown five interceptions in his last 851 regular-season pass attempts, dating to Week 15 of 2015.
Tradition on tap
The 16th annual Tradition Gala will be held Tuesday at TD Garden, and Patriots president Jonathan Kraft will be on hand to present Willie McGinest, the former Pro Bowl linebacker who is among this year’s honorees.
Also being honored are Jason Varitek, Dave Cowens, Rick Middleton, Martina Navratilova, and Chris Berman. Tickets are available by contacting Ashley Walenta at 617-624-1231 or going to sportsmuseum.org.
Extra points
It hasn’t even been two years since the Broncos won Super Bowl 50 and sent Peyton Manning out on top. Now John Elway is calling his players soft, the players are getting into fights at practice, and Vance Joseph is playing musical chairs at quarterback. Brock Osweiler, who started the last two games, will now be No. 3 behind Paxton Lynch, who will make his third career start on Sunday, and Trevor Siemian. “It’s not a good mood at all,’’ cornerback Chris Harris said of the Broncos’ locker room. Elway needs to point a finger at himself for letting the offense turn to disarray and not figuring out a better succession plan after Manning . . . Everson Griffen’s third child wasn’t due for a few weeks, but when his wife unexpectedly went into labor on Thursday morning, Griffen watched it via FaceTime during warm-ups before the Vikings took on the Lions. After sacking Matthew Stafford during the game, he lifted up his jersey to reveal his undershirt, which read, “I just had a baby boy what should we name him?’’ He said his wife prefers Sebastian . . . Darrelle Revis is back! Details of his contract aren’t yet known, but it’s likely he’s playing for free, since he receives $6 million guaranteed from the Jets this year, and it’s highly unlikely that the Chiefs are paying Revis $1 million per week. But Revis, 32, gets to showcase his talents to the rest of the league and potentially set himself up for another contract this offseason . . . The Dolphins released linebacker Rey Maualuga last week after he was arrested in Miami on a battery charge stemming from an incident at a nightclub. Per Andy Slater of WINZ radio in South Florida, Maualuga’s judge will be Ed Newman, a four-time Pro Bowl guard for the Dolphins between 1973-84. “The years’ difference is extraordinary and we believe that if Judge Newman had any concerns, he would disqualify himself,’’ the state attorney’s office told Slater.
Ben Volin can be reached at ben.volin@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @BenVolin. Material from interviews, wire services, other beat writers, and league and team sources was used in this report.
