The Celtics and Cavaliers will face each other in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals on Sunday night at TD Garden. For the Celtics, the best news of all is that they are back home, where they are 10-0 this postseason. But the Cavaliers have LeBron James, perhaps the one player in the NBA capable of carrying his team with one more majestic night.
Here are seven things the Celtics need to do on Sunday to give themselves the best chance to advance to the NBA Finals:
1. Brown’s fast start
In Game 2, James had a masterful opening quarter, erupting for 21 points. Most often, that will be a recipe for a Cavaliers win, or at the very least a sizable early lead. But Cleveland was ahead just 27-23 after one quarter, thanks in large part to Jaylen Brown. The forward matched James nearly shot for shot as he crafted a 14-point opening quarter of his own. The Celtics ultimately won by 13 points.
Brown has been extremely aggressive offensively in the opening quarters of these playoffs, and when he has a hot start, it usually results in a win for Boston.
In the first quarters of the Celtics’ three victories in this series, Brown is averaging 11 points on 57.1 percent shooting, along with 2.3 rebounds and 0.3 turnovers. In the three losses, he is averaging 5.7 points on 43.8 percent shooting, along with 0.3 rebounds and 0.7 turnovers.
The stat differentials are even noticeable when extended through the rest of the playoffs. In the first quarters of Boston’s 11 wins, Brown is averaging 6.6 points on 50.9 percent shooting, and 2 rebounds. In the seven losses, he is averaging 4.1 points on 36.4 percent shooting, and 0.3 rebounds. Keep an eye on Brown at the start.
2. Spring Horford free
Cavaliers big man Tristan Thompson has been an Al Horford stopper. In 142 minutes with Thompson on the court with him, Horford has tallied 36 points and 3 offensive rebounds while shooting 32.3 percent overall and 25 percent on 3-pointers. In 67 minutes without Thompson on the court, Horford has tallied 42 points and 7 offensive rebounds while shooting 61.5 percent from the field and 44.4 percent on 3-pointers.
Thompson, who entered the starting lineup in Game 2, has a unique combination of agility and strength that has given Horford fits.
“Thompson is tremendous defensively,’’ Celtics coach Brad Stevens said, “but one of the things that makes him tremendous is his ability to switch [on screens].’’
When Horford is on the court at the same time as Thompson, the Cavaliers are outscoring the Celtics by 3.2 points per 100 possessions. When Horford is playing and Thompson is not, Boston is outscoring Cleveland by 19.2 points per 100 possessions. Cavs coach Tyronn Lue will continue to make Thompson a Horford-seeking missile, but look for Stevens to find some creative ways to free up his All-Star big man. Horford had success against Kevin Love, but Love has been ruled out with a concussion suffered in Game 6.
3. Get on the rebound
All six games in this series have been won by the team that won the rebounding battle. The Cavaliers have outrebounded the Celtics by 11.3 per game in their wins, and they’ve been outrebounded by five in their losses. Sometimes skewed rebounding numbers are simply a result of poor shooting by the losing team, because there are more rebounds available from all the missed shots.
But the bigger issue in this series has been offensive rebounding. In Cleveland’s three wins, it has offensive rebounding percentages — the percentage of available offensive rebounds it gathered — of 36.6, 24.3, and 22.2. In its three losses, those figures dipped to 17.6, 18.6, and 7.3.
4. Take your chances
James finished off the Celtics in Game 6 with a pair of stepback 3-pointers. He made 5 of 7 3-pointers in the game, just one short of his high from the regular season and playoffs. But despite his solid marksmanship beyond the arc in this series, he remains a pedestrian 34.1 percent 3-point shooter in these playoffs. Furthermore, James has made just 6 of 22 3-pointers at TD Garden in this series (27.2 percent). The Celtics should try to coax him into firing away from long range, because he is generally more dangerous elsewhere.
5. Pick up the pace
James played 46 minutes, 6 seconds in his team’s Game 6 win, and would have topped the 47-minute mark if the game had not been decided by then. Love’s absence means James will likely play just about the entire game again. Lue acknowledged after Game 5 that he thought James appeared fatigued, and after Game 6 he said that he looked to creatively use his timeouts to steal short breaks for his superstar. But the Cavaliers might be resting James in another way, too.
In this series, the teams are averaging just 96.02 possessions apiece. That would have been the lowest mark in the NBA during the regular season by a full possession. During James’s 46-minute Game 5 epic, the adjusted pace was a turtle-slow 92.24. Maybe the young and vibrant Celtics should consider speeding things up to slow James down.
6. Silence role players
The absence of Love is a significant blow to Cleveland’s hopes. Yes, the Cavaliers played well without Love in Game 6, but the fact remains that he is an All-Star who averaged 17.6 points and 9.3 rebounds while making 41.5 percent of his 3-pointers during the regular season. This means that James will likely see extended time at center, as he did in Game 6. Jeff Green will likely replace Love in the starting lineup to help surround James with some of the shooting that is lost with Love’s absence, but the Celtics must try to rattle Green, Jordan Clarkson, and Larry Nance early. When Love is not on the floor, though, Cleveland is more defensively versatile, as it showed with its switch-happy groups in Game 6.
7. Home cooking
There were moments in Game 6, even when the Celtics still trailed, when Cavs fans at Quicken Loans Arena seemed more anxious than enthusiastic. They were silenced several times, ignited mainly by the 46-point performance by James. There is no question that the Celtics crowd has been consistently rowdier, and it is surely a big part of the reason Boston is 10-0 at home in these playoffs and just 1-7 on the road. The players insist it makes quite a difference for them.
“I expect it to be as loud as I’ve seen it,’’ Brown said. “And that’s saying a lot.’’
“We think we have the best fans in the whole league,’’ guard Marcus Smart said. “We all know how we get, especially at home with the energy we take off them. We just have to come and bring it.’’
A loud playoff crowd can give the home team extra energy, but it can also put extra pressure on the three referees who must make snap decisions in front of about 20,000 people.
Adam Himmelsbach can be reached at adam.himmelsbach @globe.com.
