The intense rounds of air attacks between Israel and Iran have analysts and traders poring over scenarios for the direction of energy markets.

A wide range of outcomes are possible, with prices in the most extreme cases soaring above $120 a barrel, analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote in a note, but also drifting down to $50 a barrel next year.

The initial round of Israeli attacks sent oil prices 7% higher Friday. Still, at about $74 a barrel, Brent crude remains below the $80 average for 2024, the Deutsche Bank analysts wrote. The market continued to waver, though, and by Monday, oil prices had fallen about 3%.

Such relatively modest levels may seem surprising with fighting raging in a region that produces about 25 million barrels a day, according to Rystad Energy, a consulting firm.

The conflict is also flaring up at a crucial time for oil markets with the start of the summer driving season, when demand rises.

Despite increasing risks, traders appear to be skeptical about the possibility of disruption. They are assuming that if international mediation manages to halt the fighting, prices could fall sharply.

“As long as supply has not been disrupted, I don’t think we are going to see huge jumps in oil prices, because the geopolitical risk premium is already factored in,” said Bachar El-Halabi, senior energy markets analyst at Argus Media, a commodities research firm.

On the other hand, some analysts think the market is being complacent.

”We see the risk of a serious supply outage increasing significantly in an extended war scenario,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at investment bank RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a note to clients.

The most worrisome scenario would be if Iran’s leaders close down the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passageway that leads from the Persian Gulf and, eventually, to the Indian Ocean.

About one-third of the volume of crude oil exported by sea as well as 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas, another vital commodity, flow through this cliff-lined channel bordered on the north by Iran, according to Rystad.

Deutsche Bank analysts think that if Iran were to block the strait for two months, prices could soar to $124 a barrel. But an effort to halt shipping is likely to bring a response from the United States, which has ships from the 5th Fleet based in Bahrain on the Persian Gulf, and other countries.

And closing the strait would harm Iran, which exports most of its oil from terminals on Kharg Island in the gulf.

Deutsche Bank figures that based on current prices, the market is now assuming the loss of some of Iran’s exports, which recently have been about 1.5 million barrels a day. Most of this oil goes to China, but the small refineries there, which are Iran’s main customers, would need to find other sources of oil if these flows stopped.

— New York Times

UNH Medicare Advantage commissions cut

UnitedHealth Group is cutting commissions for brokers on some Medicare Advantage plans, according to documents reviewed by Bloomberg News, a move that appears designed to discourage agents from selling those plans.

The decision comes as UnitedHealth grapples with high costs in Medicare Advantage that derailed its financial outlook and sent its share price tumbling. By steering brokers away from selling some of these plans, the insurance giant could ultimately lower its costs.

A representative from UnitedHealth had no comment Monday.

Eden Prairie-based UnitedHealth is the largest seller of Medicare Advantage plans, a private version of the government’s Medicare program for seniors and people with disabilities. It’s historically been a big driver of the company’s growth, but it’s also been a source of problems. In addition to the rising medical costs, the Justice Department is investigating the insurer’s business practices in Medicare Advantage.

In May, UnitedHealth abruptly replaced its CEO and pulled its financial outlook..

China’s economy sees mixed data

China’s economy managed a mixed economic performance in May, as retail sales jumped while factory output slowed in the face of higher U.S. tariffs. Data released Monday showed retail sales rose 6.4% from a year earlier, helped partly by promotions of products stranded as shipments were suspended due to higher tariffs.

Manufacturing output rose 5.8% in May year-on-year, the National Bureau of Statistics said, compared with 6.1% in April and 7.7% in March. Factory activity surged earlier in the year but has slowed as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs took effect. China earlier reported its exports to the United States fell 35% in May from a year earlier, while total exports rose 4.8% in May from a year earlier, much lower than economists’ forecasts and down sharply from an 8.1% jump in April.

— From news services