




We’re less than two weeks from Opening Day, and Red Sox manager Alex Cora has indicated that several key roster decisions will be coming on Tuesday.
After that, it probably won’t be much longer before the full Opening Day roster is set.
Who will ultimately make the team? Several injuries over the past week have upset the apple cart, particularly in the starting rotation, but we’ve seen enough to take one more crack at projecting the initial 26-man club.
Starting rotation
MLB: Garrett Crochet (L), Tanner Houck, Walker Buehler, Richard Fitts, Quinn Priester
MiLB depth: Hunter Dobbins, Michael Fulmer, Sean Newcomb (L)
15-day IL: Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford; 60-day IL: Patrick Sandoval (L)
Saturday morning Cora confirmed what most people expected all along, that Crochet will be the Red Sox’s Opening Day starter. Houck will follow him for Game 2, and Buehler will pitch Game 3. After that the club will have to figure out who will take the other two spots with Giolito, Bello and Crawford all expected to open the season on the injured list.
Cora identified Fitts, Priester, Cooper Criswell and Sean Newcomb as the candidates for those spots, and given the way camp has played out, Fitts and Priester seem like the most likely of the bunch to get the nod. Fitts has been outstanding throughout camp and has bumped his fastball velocity from 94-95 mph at the end of last season to 96-97 in his most recent Grapefruit League outings. Priester had also pitched well entering Saturday, and while his poor showing against the Braves wasn’t ideal, he should still be a favorite to make the rotation.
Even if he doesn’t start the season in the rotation, Criswell may be uniquely suited to make the Opening Day roster anyway as a bulk reliever. Newcomb has pitched well this spring too, but given that he isn’t on the 40-man roster, the club would have to clear a 40-man spot to accommodate him, something that might complicate his candidacy.
Bullpen
MLB: Liam Hendriks, Aroldis Chapman (L), Garrett Whitlock, Justin Slaten, Justin Wilson (L), Adam Ottavino, Greg Weissert, Criswell
MiLB depth: Austin Adams, Brennan Bernardino (L), Isaiah Campbell, Noah Davis, Luis Guerrero, Zack Kelly, Bryan Mata, Wyatt Mills, Josh Winckowski
60-day IL: Chris Murphy (L), Zach Penrod (L)
Opt-out: Matt Moore (L)
There’s still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the bullpen, and candidly some of the club’s arms have looked shaky at times this spring. But as far as who’ll likely make the team, we have a good idea of what the core will be.
Hendriks, Chapman, Whitlock and Slaten will be on the big league team, and Wilson probably will be as well. If we presume one of the remaining spots goes to a bulk guy like Criswell, then that leaves just two open spots.
For a while I thought Guerrero was the runaway favorite of the remaining arms to earn a spot, but his last three outings have been really rough. Guerrero walked seven batters over just two innings during that stretch, and even taking into account his first three really good appearances, he’s still allowed six earned runs in five innings so far this camp.
That should open the door for another contender, and Weissert seems to be meeting the moment. So far he’s yet to allow an earned run through seven innings in his first six Grapefruit League appearances, and over that stretch he’s only allowed one hit. Weissert was dominant down the stretch last season too, so if he keeps it up it’s hard to imagine he won’t be on the Opening Day roster.
As for the last spot, I still think the club will keep one of their two veterans on minor league deals. Ottavino got crushed in his last outing, which made his numbers for the spring look horrible, but I could see him still getting a chance. Moore hasn’t been with the team as long, but if the Red Sox decide to let Ottavino opt-out, or if they decide to carry a third lefty, Moore could conceivably stick as well.
Or, if the Red Sox decide to move on from both veterans, guys like Kelly and Bernardino remain strong contenders as well. Both have
pitched well this spring and have enjoyed success in the Red Sox bullpen before.
Catcher
MLB: Connor Wong, Carlos Narvaez
MiLB depth: Nathan Hickey, Mark Kolozsvary, Blake Sabol, Seby Zavala
Nothing new to say here, really. Wong has been out sick but should be back and ready to go by Opening Day, and we’ve been given no indication of where things stand in the competition between Narvaez and Sabol.
My money is still on Narvaez, mainly because of his reputation as a defensive catcher, but Sabol’s chances shouldn’t be discounted.
Infielders
MLB: Triston Casas (1B), Kristian Campbell (2B), Trevor Story (SS), Alex Bregman (3B), Rafael Devers (DH), David Hamilton (Util.), Romy Gonzalez (Util.)
MiLB depth: Vaughn Grissom, Marcelo Mayer, Nick Sogard, Abraham Toro
While the club hasn’t come out and said so officially, I think it’s safe to say that when the Red Sox open the season in Texas, Bregman will take the field as the starting third baseman and Devers will be the designated hitter. Devers all but confirmed that on Thursday, telling reporters that he and the club have spoken and that the team “knows where he stands,” but that he’ll do whatever the team asks.
With that piece of the puzzle in place, the only question remaining is who will slot in as the starting second baseman?
Last weekend I wrote that Campbell was out of the picture, which was a reasonable conclusion at the time. Up to that point he hadn’t started any games with the Red Sox’s big league regulars and was getting most of his playing time in left field. But since then Campbell has reemerged as a viable candidate, starting the team’s last three home games at second base, including Saturday for the first time alongside Story.
With only about a week left to play before camp breaks, the Red Sox are at the point where the regulars are going to start getting most of the remaining playing time. The recent emphasis on Campbell is notable, especially if he keeps starting alongside Story over the next few days.
And if Campbell is the starting second baseman? What would that mean for everyone else?
Grissom would most likely start the season as the every day second baseman in Triple-A, and Hamilton would likely move into a bench role for the big league club. Hamilton would be the back-up middle infielder and late-inning pinch runner, and ideally he’d eliminate the need for Ceddanne Rafaela to play an infield, allowing him to exclusively focus on center field.
As for Gonzalez, he can play pretty much anywhere, but he specifically is the only other person on the roster besides Casas who can play first base. Among his other roles he’d be Casas’ primary backup if the left-handed slugger ever needs a day off, particularly on days where there’s a lefty on the mound.
Outfielders
MLB: Jarren Duran (LF), Ceddanne Rafaela (CF), Wilyer Abreu (RF), Rob Refsnyder (OF)
MiLB depth: Roman Anthony, Nate Eaton, Jhostynxon Garcia, Trayce Thompson
15-day IL: Masataka Yoshida
Man, I really want to believe.
Coming into camp I thought there was a realistic possibility Anthony could make the team, but once he got sick and missed more than a week’s worth of game action, it seemed like that would be too much to overcome. He predictably struggled in his first game back on Wednesday, but since then he’s gotten right back to work and made a series of statements to back up his reputation as one of the finest young players in baseball today.
Thursday night in the Spring Breakout prospect showcase, Anthony hit a tape-measure home run off the roof of a nearby building at the Tampa Bay Rays’ complex, something people who are around the Rays frequently say hardly ever happens. Then he rejoined the big leaguers on Friday and went deep again, hitting a solo shot as part of a 2 for 4 showing with four RBI.
Even taking out the big bomb on Thursday, which technically doesn’t count towards spring training statistics, Anthony came into Saturday batting .316 with a .984 OPS and more walks (4) than strikeouts (3) through eight Grapefruit League games. He’d reached base at least once in every game he’s played but one, with the lone outlier coming Wednesday after he’d just spent a week sick as a dog.
Is there still room to grow? Of course. Does Anthony still have weaknesses to address? Naturally. But I’ve seen enough. This kid is a stud and the Red Sox would be doing themselves a disservice not starting him on the Opening Day roster.
And yet…
When I originally started writing this piece, I planned on projecting Anthony as the Opening Day left fielder. But then two things happened that made me reconsider. One, Campbell got the start again alongside Story, leading me to believe he might have the better chance of the two top prospects to make the Opening Day roster. And two, we spoke to Cora for more than 15 minutes, and during that time he spoke in depth about his plans for the outfield and where everyone fits in.
He didn’t mention Anthony’s name once.
Anthony’s time will come, but for now it feels like the responsible thing to do is assume the plan is to stick with the status quo. That’s Duran in left, Rafaela in center, Abreu in right and Refsnyder off the bench.
The one remaining wild card is Yoshida. He’s been hitting in games as a designated hitter for nearly a month, but if the plan is to have Devers start at DH, then Yoshida will have to play the outfield. The problem is that coming off shoulder surgery he won’t be ready to play the field by Opening Day, so even though he’s been playing regularly, Cora acknowledged that Yoshida could still start the season on the IL.
I think that’s what will ultimately happen, but as anyone who follows baseball knows, the MLB season is long and Opening Day is just a snapshot in time. Sooner or later the Red Sox will have to figure out how Yoshida, Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and others fit into the equation, and those aren’t questions we’ll have an answer to until the season is well underway.
Either way, baseball season is almost here. Let the games begin!