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President Donald Trump on Monday announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports as part of an aggressive effort to remake the existing terms of world trade that so far has compounded economic uncertainty.
Trump also intends this week to reset U.S. taxes on all imports to match the same levels charged by other countries, all of which comes on top of the 10% tariffs he already put on China, China’s retaliatory tariffs that started Monday and the U.S. tariffs planned for Canada and Mexico that have been suspended until March 1.
All of this carries inflation risks at a moment when voters are already weary of high prices and fearful that price increases will eclipse any income gains. Trump maintains that the tariffs will level the playing field in international trade and make U.S. factories more competitive, such that any pain felt by consumers and businesses would eventually be worthwhile.
“ ‘Fairness’ is in the eye of the beholder, but the more fundamental question is whether the U.S. actually benefits from such new tariffs,” Benn Steil, director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, a New York-based nonpartisan think tank, said in an email. “The costs to the U.S. will include higher prices to U.S. consumers, retaliatory tariffs abroad, and the loss of U.S. jobs and competitiveness in firms hit by higher input costs.”
Steil noted that other countries are already adopting Trump’s approach from his first term as the president imposes tariffs on the premise that the imports create national security risks. That’s because national security-related tariffs are legally unchallengeable at the World Trade Organization, meaning that so far Trump’s approach has encouraged other countries to increase trade barriers.
“Not surprisingly, everything from ‘door frames’ to ‘alcoholic beverages’ have of late been subject to new import barriers in the developing world on the grounds of national security,” Steil said.
The White House has yet to fully counter economic analyses showing that tariffs would hurt growth and intensify inflation, only saying that such analyses are incomplete without including the full extent of Trump’s planned income tax cuts and regulatory curbs. But Trump has yet to propose a budget plan that would flesh out his policies so that economists can judge them.
Consumers already appear to be anticipating that inflation will become a bigger problem. On Friday, the preliminary February results from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers found that year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.3% from 3.3% a month prior.
The government inflation report scheduled to be released on Wednesday is expected by economists to show consumer prices rising at 2.8%, which would suggest that the public sees tariffs as a major risk to their financial wellbeing.
The stock prices of steel companies climbed sharply on Monday as investors assumed the tariffs would increase their profits. Cleveland-Cliffs, which wants to buy Pittsburgh’s U.S. Steel, rose 13% in morning trading. U.S. Steel climbed 4%. Nucor increased almost 6%, and Steel Dynamics rose about 5%.
But companies that rely on steel and aluminum saw their share prices decrease, since tariffs mean that the cost of their raw materials could increase. For example, shares in automaker General Motors sold off, which could ultimately signal trouble for a manufacturing sector that Trump has promised to revive.