


One of the things I admire about President Donald Trump is his tendency to do what he says he will do. He promised he would secure the southern border, and did it in a matter of weeks. He gave Iran a deadline to peacefully give up its nuclear weapons program and, when it failed to do so, he launched Operation Midnight Hammer and obliterated the program. During his first term, he promised to “crush and destroy” the Islamic State and did exactly that - driving ISIS from its caliphate and killing its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Trump also promised he would punish Syria if it used chemical weapons on its people, and unlike Barack Obama, he followed through when Syria crossed a red line - not once but twice.
When it comes to Ukraine, Trump has been clear about what he would do if Russian President Vladimir Putin did not agree to end the war: Trump promised to impose crippling secondary tariffs on all oil coming out of Russia and give Ukraine more weapons than they’ve ever received from the U.S. Now that Putin has rejected Trump’s peace efforts, I am confident Trump will do exactly what he said.
Already, the president has reversed a Pentagon pause in weapons shipments to Ukraine, declaring, “We’re going to send some more weapons. We have to. They have to be able to defend themselves.” But, as Putin defiantly escalates his attacks on Kyiv, and the last of the weapons authorized under President Joe Biden will soon run out, Trump needs a new way forward.
So, what should Trump’s strategy be? The goal can’t be to help Ukraine restore its pre-war borders - something every reasonable person knows is unrealistic at least in the near term. But the answer is also not to revert to Biden’s feckless policy of slow-rolling weapons, arming Ukraine just enough to stop Russia from overrunning the country, with no endgame in sight.
Rather, the goal should be to force Putin to do what Trump has demanded from the very beginning - end the war at the negotiating table - by imposing such heavy economic and military costs on Russia that Putin has no choice but to sue for peace.
How to do that? Russia is in economic trouble as war spending has unleashed double-digit inflation, soaring interest rates and catastrophic labor shortages. The only things keeping the Russian economy afloat have been oil and gas sales, which skyrocketed under Biden. But under Trump, Russia’s oil and gas revenue has begun to collapse, falling 33.7 percent last month.
Trump should further tighten the screws with a “maximum pressure” campaign designed to drive Russian oil and gas from the global market, much like he did with Iran in his first term. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) is sponsoring a Russia sanctions bill, which has 85 co-sponsors, that would help Trump do so by barring energy transactions with sanctioned Russian banks and imposing a 500 percent secondary tariff on any country that purchases Russian oil and natural gas. Trump should call on Congress to pass it and sign it into law.
As he crushes the Russian economy, Trump should also apply maximum pressure on the battlefield. He has announced that he will provide Ukraine with more defensive systems to protect Ukrainian civilians from Russian attacks. But to force Putin back to the peace table, he will need to provide Ukraine with increased offensive capabilities as well - including weapons that Biden slow-rolled, such High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), Stinger and Javelin missiles, as well as 155mm artillery rounds.
Those are defensive systems as well, able to destroy Russian airplanes, drones, missile stockpiles and ammo depots before their munitions are dropped on Ukrainian cities or troops on the front lines. If Ukraine begins striking blows against Russia with the help of U.S. arms, it will show Putin that he cannot achieve his objectives.
While the Pentagon faces some short-term stockpile challenges that must be managed, a robust effort to arm Ukraine is an opportunity to boost U.S. defense production - at no cost to American taxpayers. Earlier this year, retired Gen. Jack Keane and I laid out a plan to transition Ukraine from a military aid recipient to a defense consumer. Ukraine could buy U.S. weapons with Foreign Military Financing direct loans, like those we provide to allies. These loans cost taxpayers nothing; indeed, the United States earns a profit, because they come with interest that must be paid to the U.S. government.
What Biden allowed to start, Trump can finish on terms favorable to Ukraine. The only way it becomes Trump’s war is if Russia starts making major advances on the ground during his watch.
I don’t believe Trump will allow that to happen. Because doing so would send a message of weakness to U.S. adversaries. He has repeatedly said that if Putin rejects peace, he will choose sides - and back Ukraine. And when Trump promises to do something, he tends to deliver.