Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that the Federal Reserve will likely cut its key interest rate slowly and deliberately in the coming months, in part because inflation has shown signs of persistence and the Fed’s officials want to see where it heads next.
Powell, speaking in Dallas, said that inflation is edging closer to the central bank’s 2% target, “but it is not there yet.”
At the same time, he said, the economy is strong, and the policymakers can take time to monitor the path of inflation.
“The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates,” the Fed chair said. “The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.”
Economists expect the Fed to announce another quarter-point rate cut in December, after a quarter-point reduction last week and half-point cut in September.
But the Fed’s steps after that are much less clear. In September, the central bank’s officials collectively signaled that they envisioned cutting their key rate four times in 2025. Wall Street traders, though, now expect just two rate reductions, according to futures pricing tracked by CME FedWatch. And after Powell’s cautious remarks Thursday, traders estimated the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December at just below 59%, down from 83% a day earlier.
The Fed’s benchmark interest rate tends to influence borrowing rates across the economy, including for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards. Other factors, though, can also push up longer-term rates, notably expectations for inflation and economic growth.
For example, Donald Trump’s presidential election victory has sent yields on Treasury securities higher. It is a sign that investors expect faster growth next year as well as potentially larger budget deficits and even higher inflation should Trump impose widespread tariffs and mass deportations of migrants as he has promised.
In his remarks Thursday, Powell suggested that inflation may remain stuck somewhat above the Fed’s target in the coming months. But he reiterated that inflation should eventually decline further, “albeit on a sometimes bumpy path.”
Wholesale prices saw slight October rise
Wholesale prices in the United States rose last month, remaining low but suggesting that the American economy has yet to completely vanquish inflationary pressure.
Thursday’s report from the Labor Department showed that its producer price index — which tracks inflation before it hits consumers — rose 0.2% from September to October, up from a 0.1% gain the month before. Compared with a year earlier, wholesale prices were up 2.4%, accelerating from a year-over-year gain of 1.9% in September.
A 0.3% increase in services prices drove the October increase. Wholesale goods prices edged up 0.1% after falling the previous two months. Excluding food and energy prices, which tend to bounce around from month to month, so-called core wholesale prices rose 0.3 from September and 3.1% from a year earlier. The readings were about what economists had expected.
Mortgage rates dip after six-week climb
The average rate on a 30-year mortgage in the U.S. edged lower this week, ending a six-week climb.
The rate slipped to 6.78% from 6.79% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. That’s still down from a year ago, when the rate averaged 7.4%.
Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, popular with homeowners seeking to refinance their home loan to a lower rate, also eased this week. The average rate slipped to 5.99% from 6% last week. A year ago, it averaged 6.76%, Freddie Mac said.
Mortgage rates are influenced by several factors, including the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds.
Unemployment claims fall to six-month low
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in six months last week as layoffs remain at relatively healthy levels.
The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claim applications fell by 4,000 to 217,000 for the week of Nov. 9. That’s less than the 225,000 analysts forecast.
The four-week average of weekly claims, which evens out some of the weekly ups and downs, fell by 6,250 to 221,000.
Weekly applications for jobless benefits are considered representative of U.S. layoffs in a given week.
EU issues Meta its first antitrust fine
European Union regulators issued their first antitrust fine to Facebook parent Meta on Thursday with a penalty of nearly 800 million euros for what they call “abusive practices” involving its Marketplace online classified ads business.
The European Commission, the 27-nation bloc’s executive branch and top antitrust enforcer, issued the 797.72 million euro ($841 million) penalty after its long-running investigation found that the company abused its dominant position and engaged in anti-competitive behavior.
It’s the first time the EU has imposed a fine on the social media giant for breaches of the bloc’s competition law. Brussels has already slapped Big Tech rivals Google and Apple with billions in antitrust penalties.
Ford to pay $165M fine for bungled recall
Ford Motor Co. will pay a penalty of up to $165 million to the U.S. government for moving too slowly on a recall and failing to give accurate recall information.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said Thursday that the civil penalty is the second-largest in its 54-year history. Only the fine Takata paid for faulty air bag inflators was higher.
The agency said Ford was too slow to recall vehicles with faulty rearview cameras, and it failed to give the agency complete information, which is required by the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Act.
— News service reports