Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell repeated that the U.S. central bank probably would have cut rates further this year absent President Donald Trump’s expanded use of tariffs.

“In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs and essentially all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs,” Powell said Tuesday on a panel alongside other prominent central bank leaders.

“We think that the prudent thing to do is to wait and learn more and see what those effects might be,” he added.

Still, when asked if July were too soon for a rate cut, Powell didn’t rule out the possibility.

“We are going meeting by meeting,” he said at the European Central Bank’s annual Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. “I wouldn’t take any meeting off the table or put it directly on the table. It’s going to depend on how the data evolve.”

The Federal Open Market Committee next meets July 29-30 in Washington.

The Fed chief said he expects the impact of tariffs to show up in inflation data in coming months, while acknowledging that uncertainties remain.

“We’re watching. We expect to see over the summer some higher readings,” he said.

He added that policymakers are prepared to learn the impact could be “higher or lower, or later or sooner than we expected.”

The U.S. central bank is wrestling with an awkward tension between its forecasts and recent data.

The Fed has held off on lowering interest rates this year — despite intense pressure from Trump — in part to determine whether tariff-driven price hikes might evolve into more persistent inflation. But so far, broad price hikes aren’t showing up.

Policymakers voted unanimously in June to once again hold rates steady. However, updated quarterly projections showed a divide among officials over the likely forward path of rates.

While 10 policymakers foresee at least two cuts this year, seven projected no cuts in 2025. Another two penciled in just one reduction before year’s end.

Trump’s imposition of new levies on dozens of U.S. trading partners, along with his frequent variations on the specifics of the duties and halting progress on striking trade deals, has injected uncertainty into the economic outlook. Forecasters widely expect the tariffs to put upward pressure on inflation and dent economic growth.

Still, economic data have shown little impact from the tariffs, either in prices or the labor market.

Trump and several top administration officials have seized on the positive data as they demand lower rates.

“We’ve always said that the timing, amount and persistence of the inflation would be highly uncertain,” Powell said Tuesday.

Two Trump-appointed Fed governors, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, have argued a rate cut could be appropriate as soon as the Fed’s meeting later this month. Both have cited benign economic data as among the factors influencing their view.

When asked whether attacks from Trump were making it more difficult for him to do his job, Powell drew a sustained round of applause with his response.

“I’m very focused on just doing my job. The things that matter are using our tools to achieve the goals that Congress has given us,” he said. “That’s what we focus on 100%.”

Powell once again declined to say whether he would leave the Fed when his term as chair expires next May. His term as a governor continues until 2028, but Fed chairs traditionally exit the central bank when their leadership role ends.

— Bloomberg News

U.S. job openings rise in May

U.S. job openings rose unexpectedly in May, a sign that the American labor market remains resilien t in the face of high borrowing costs and uncertainty over U.S. economic policy.

U.S. employers posted 7.8 million vacancies in May, the Labor Department reported Tuesday, up from 7.4 million in April and the highest November’s 8 million, when former President Joe Biden was still in the White House. Economists had expected a slight decrease to 7.3 million. Openings were reported at hotels and restaurants and at finance companies. Vacancies at the federal government fell to the lowest level since May 2020, likely reflecting President Donald Trump’s hiring freeze.

The Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that the number of Americans quitting their job — a sign of confidence in their prospects — rose modestly, and layoffs fell.

Navy CU gets reprieve from fee refunds

Navy Federal Credit Union will no longer have to refund $80 million to servicemen and women for illegally charging them overdraft fees on their accounts, after the President Donald Trump-led Consumer Financial Protection Bureau moved to dismiss the case.

It’s the latest example of how the Trump-led CFPB is undoing much of the work it did under President Joe Biden, even in instances where the bad actors agreed to provide redress and compensation to victims.

The case dates from late 2024 and deals with an issue known as “authorized positive overdraft fees,” which happen when a bank initially approves a debit card transaction but later charges the customer a overdraft fee when that earlier transaction settles, typically a couple of days later, and there’s insufficient funds in the customer’s bank account.

Under its previous settlement, Navy Federal would have needed to pay a $15 million fine to the CFPB and refund $80 million in illegally paid overdraft fees.

Lululemon sues Costco over knockoff apparel

Lululemon has filed a lawsuit against Costco that accuses the wholesale club operator of selling lower-priced duplicates of some of its popular athleisure clothing.

Lululemon Athletica claims in its lawsuit filed in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California that Costco has “unlawfully traded” on its reputation, goodwill and sweat equity by selling unauthorized and unlicensed apparel that uses knockoff, infringing versions of its patents.

Some of the products Lululemon says Costco is making duplicates of include its popular Scuba hoodies, Define jackets, and ABC pants.

Costco, based in Issaquah, Wash., did not respond to a request for comment on Tuesday.

Lululemon is requesting a jury trial and wants Costco to stop selling the products that it considers to be duplicates. It is also seeking an unspecified amount in monetary damages.

— From news services