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The Detroit News’ Michigan basketball beat writer, James Hawkins, breaks down three keys for Michigan in today’s game against Michigan State at Crisler Center.
First place is on the line in the first top-15 matchup in the rivalry since January, 2020, as Michigan brings in a six-game win streak on the season, and the Spartans have won three of four.
Limit the giveaways
It’s no secret that Michigan’s Achilles heel this season has been turnovers. The Wolverines turn the ball over an average of 14.4 times per game. That’s a whopping 20.2% of their offensive possessions, per KenPom. Only one Power Four team has worse numbers in those categories, and that’s Colorado.
Michigan coach Dusty May can live with certain turnovers, like if a player makes the right read but a defender gets a fingertip on a pass that would otherwise lead to a layup or dunk. May can’t live with the unforced errors and rushed decisions that result in-action turnovers that lead to scores.
Live-ball turnovers play right into what Michigan State does well. The Spartans are at their best when they’re out and running. They rank near the top nationally in fast-break points and thrive in transition. Look no further than Tuesday’s win over Purdue for evidence of that.
“It jumps off the page at you. They’re elite in transition,” assistant coach Kyle Church said Wednesday. “They just run so fast, all five of them. … They’re as disciplined as any team I’ve ever seen in making it every single possession, trying to get up the floor as fast as possible.”
If Michigan wants to limit Michigan State’s fast-break opportunities, taking care of the ball is paramount. The Wolverines have done a better job of that in recent games (11.7 turnovers in the past three contests). Taking another step forward will go a long way against the Spartans.
“You eliminate half of those possessions that you turn it over, now your defense is significantly better, guys have more touches (on offense), there’s more flow,” May said earlier this month. “I think all parts of the game will function better if we just eliminate that one thing.”
Clean the glass
The way Church broke it down, transition defense is No. 1A on Michigan’s priority list against Michigan State. No. 1B is keeping the Spartans off the offensive glass, a typical strength of Tom Izzo’s teams.
Finishing off possessions with a defensive rebound has been problematic, at times, for Michigan, which has allowed at least 12 offensive boards in four of the past five games. That’s right around what Michigan State averages per game, an 11.9 mark that ranks second in the Big Ten.
The fact that Michigan State regularly deploys a 10-man rotation, with everyone playing at least 15 minutes, allows the Spartans to persistently crash the glass. And getting second-chance opportunities is one way they make up for their 29.1% 3-point shooting, which ranks among the worst in the country.
For Michigan, though, it’s not all on big men Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf’s shoulders to win the battle on the boards.
“Our guards have got to stick their noses in there, come up with some loose basketballs,” Church said. “It’s going to be a group effort.”
The Wolverines, like the Spartans, want to get up and down the court. According to Goldin, the best way to play fast is for a guard to get the defensive rebound and immediately start pushing the ball instead of waiting for a pass.
Meet the challenge
After last month’s blowout loss at Purdue, Michigan coaches felt the scouting strategy was out that the way to beat the Wolverines was to be physical with them. Since then, Michigan has shown it can “take the fight to teams,” as assistant coach Justin Joyner put it, and be more of a hammer than a nail.
That’s going to be put to the test in a game where the Wolverines — a group that has a bunch of coaches and players getting their first taste of the rivalry — are going to need to at least meet the Spartans’ intensity.
“We know exactly what Michigan State wants to do, as far as their physicality. They’ve played like that for years, and they’re darn good at it,” Church said. “We have to prepare ourselves how we’re going to respond and respond in the right way within the rulebook because they’re great at getting to the free throw a lot. … They are very physical, but they also draw fouls, and that’s a big part of their offense.”
Michigan State ranks in the top 10 nationally in free-throw percentage and free throws made per game. And during conference play, no Big Ten team has generated more points at the stripe than the Spartans.
Given Michigan State’s deep rotation and the fact Sam Walters could miss a second straight game due to a lower-back injury, the Wolverines will need to play dogged, disciplined defense.
“When they play 10 deep, foul trouble isn’t as big of an issue for them because you can go the next guy,” Wolf said. “With their size and depth, you don’t want to get into foul trouble. It’s about defending without fouling and just being relentless.”