The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure stayed subdued in April as spending slowed. But the outlook for the economy has become even more muddied amid constant changes to President Donald Trump’s policies.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, released Friday, climbed 2.1% in April from a year earlier, slightly lower than the previous reading of 2.3% and closer in line with the Fed’s 2% target. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.1% after staying flat in March.

The “core” personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out volatile food and energy costs and is closely watched as a measure for underlying inflation, rose 0.1% in April. Compared with the same time last year, it is up 2.5%. In March, it rose at an annual pace of 2.6%.

When adjusted for inflation, personal spending rose 0.1% for the month, a significant drop compared to March’s 0.7% increase. Personal income jumped in April, but that largely reflected a rise in Social Security payments.

The data from the Commerce Department covered a period in which Trump unveiled and then quickly rolled back aggressive tariffs against virtually all of the country’s major trading partners after U.S. government bond markets seized up. He has since minted tentative deals with some countries, like Britain, but also threatened fresh levies on imports from the European Union. He delayed those days later.

In the latest twist, a federal appeals court Thursday agreed to temporarily preserve many of Trump’s tariffs after a lower court deemed them illegal this week.

The back-and-forth has left businesses and consumers uneasy and feeling downbeat about the outlook, data released by the University of Michigan showed Friday. That has complicated assessments of how significantly prices may rise and the economy will slow over time. Costco, the retail giant, announced this week that it was pulling forward purchases in an attempt to avoid tariffs and would only raise prices as a “last resort.” Walmart already warned it is likely to increase prices.

Most economists had expected price pressures to start showing up more meaningfully in the data over the summer and for growth to moderate after that point. But as the scope and scale of the tariffs continue to change, so do those forecasts.

“We know there’s a bulge in prices coming. We just don’t know how big it’s going to be and how long it’s going to last,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander. “That’s got pretty much everybody in limbo, including the Fed at this point.”

The tariff impact has already showed up noticeably in trade-related data, which Friday showed that imports of everyday items dropped nearly 20% in April. That is the biggest monthly decline on record. The goods trade deficit nearly halved to around $88 billion.

How significantly Republicans end up cutting taxes and slashing spending will also affect the economic outlook. The administration’s plans to deport immigrants also risks weighing on the labor market as the supply of workers shrinks.

Friday’s data reinforced the Fed’s decision to be patient about forthcoming interest rate cuts. Officials argue that they can afford to take their time before making any policy moves because the economy is in solid shape so far. Consumers have started to come under a bit more strain, but with layoffs low, the central bank is confident that the labor market is not yet on the verge of cracking.

The concern is that this could change suddenly if businesses, under pressure from rising prices and slower demand, start to cut costs and begin shedding workers. Until that happens, however, the Fed is likely to stay on hold. That approach will keep it in the crosshairs of the president, who wants the central bank to lower borrowing costs now.