SANTA CRUZ >> Santa Cruz County finds itself, once again, caught in the middle of an atmospheric river sandwich.

Last week’s intense rain and high winds gave way to sunny skies over the weekend, but weather experts told the Sentinel that the streak will be short-lived.

Another round of intense atmospheric activity will arrive late Tuesday, when an atmospheric river storm will park itself above the Bay Area and Central Coast to unload buckets of rain and potentially damaging winds.

National Weather Service meteorologist Crystal Oudit said that while the hazy forecast will come into sharper focus as the storm draws closer, conditions will start to pick up late Tuesday, with the heaviest punch arriving Wednesday and Thursday.

“I would just plan ahead. There’s the possibility of landslides, flash flooding,” said Oudit. “The biggest concern is going to be the rain.”

Oudit said the Santa Cruz Mountains could receive as much as 7.5 inches from Wednesday to Friday, while low-lying areas throughout the county may be tasked with absorbing anywhere from 3 inches to 5 inches before the storm begins tapering off late in the week. Oudit, emphasizing that the forecast was still taking shape, said flash flood warnings or watches in the area were certainly possible.With this in mind, Santa Cruz County Office of Response, Recovery and Resilience Director Dave Reid said local officials will be keeping a close eye on the San Lorenzo River, as rainfall skims off the earth’s surface and flows toward the sea. As the deluge was approaching its peak last Tuesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s prediction service at Big Trees near Felton clocked the river’s water level at 13.8 feet — a hair shy of clearing the 14-foot “action” stage.

The federal agency’s forecast as of Monday predicted the river reaching 12.3 feet around noon Thursday.

“We’ll be closely monitoring (the river) in the overnight hours, Wednesday into Thursday,” said Reid. “We did have a significant amount of rain last week, so we do expect things to respond pretty quickly.”

Luckily, Reid added, the gap between these two recent atmospheric river storms could be long enough to buffer against severe impacts, unlike what was experienced in recent years when the county wasn’t so lucky.

“As we learned in 2023 and 2024, when (the storms) stack themselves up in close succession — closer than this gap that we’ve had — that can be a problem,” Reid said.

Still, he cautioned, residents should keep their wits about them, especially those near Felton Grove and Paradise Park, which are typically on the front lines of flood impacts.

Despite an extended dry spell to start the year, county soils took in their fair share of precipitation last week with nearly 3.5 inches reported in Boulder Creek as of last Tuesday and 1.6 inches in Soquel. With a river of moisture yet again flowing across the sky toward the California coast, the brief warmup this weekend was beneficial but won’t be enough to keep local soils from rapidly reaching a saturation point once it begins to pour.

When that happens, the root systems for local trees are also likelier to pull out of the softened ground, like grabbing a fistful of peanut butter.

“The first round of rain is going to saturate some of that soil again,” said Oudit. “The wind is going to increase the risk of trees and power lines coming down.”

Wind speeds, also expected to peak Wednesday and Thursday, could top out at 40 mph in the mountains while lower elevation regions could experience 30 mph gusts.

Oudit added that a pulse of heavy swells will also roll toward local shores this week with arrival estimated for Thursday or Friday, leading to potentially dangerous conditions for county beachgoers. It also won’t help with the San Lorenzo River concerns, as a surging tide will make it harder for the major water artery to efficiently drain into the ocean.

“As always, maintain connectivity to communication channels,” said Reid, “so if we do need to make any notifications this week or alert people of any concerning issues, they’re paying attention and listening.”

County residents can register for CruzAware, the county’s emergency and non-emergency alert and warning system at cruzaware.genasys.com/portal/en