JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. — Income, sales, property and gas taxes: Almost every state cut at least one such broad-based tax as budget surpluses soared over the past three years.

Some states made permanent tax reductions. Others passed one-time rebates or temporary suspensions. One way or another, whether red or blue, all states save Alaska and Nevada joined in.

Even more tax cuts are likely, but the trend may be slowing as 2024 legislative sessions begin. That’s because the pandemic-era revenue surge fueled by federal spending and inflation is receding and, in some states, reversing into negative numbers.

“Next year will likely be a return to normal for state budgets,” said Brian Sigritz, director of state fiscal studies for the National Association of State Budget Officers. “Funds will be more limited. States will have to make decisions on what areas they prioritize.”

California, where financial swings are felt more sharply than most states, has a projected budget deficit of a record $68 billion, an amount exceeding its hefty reserves. Just years after enjoying a record $100 billion surplus, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is facing a challenging task as he prepares to present the state budget in January.

Other states, while not in the same hole as California, have seen tax revenues decline and spending exceed forecasts. Arizona could face a $400 million shortfall in its 2024 fiscal year. Maryland’s legislative staff recently projected a $761 million budget deficit in 2025, growing to nearly $2.7 billion by 2029 without significant revenue increases or spending reductions.

And Minnesota’s budget office says a projected $2.4 billion surplus for the current two-year budget cycle could flip upside-down in the next period, resulting in a $2.3 billion shortfall by fiscal 2026-27.

Still, it’s hard to say how much, if any, of the projected shortfalls are attributable to tax rebates or reductions passed in each particular state.

As a whole, state-level tax reductions are projected to result in $13.3 billion less in general revenue this year compared to what states otherwise would have collected, according to a recent report by the National Association of State Budget Officers. That follows a $15.5 billion net tax reduction from fiscal 2023.

About four-fifths of the states have passed some sort of income tax break since 2021, according to a tally by The Associated Press. Those include cash-back plans, such as Delaware’s $300 rebate and California’s rebate of $200 to $1,050 for individuals earning up to $250,000 and households up to $500,000.

The tally includes targeted tax breaks, such as expanded deductions or credits for families with children and seniors on retirement incomes. It also includes permanent individual income tax rate reductions enacted primarily by GOP-led states, such as Missouri and Mississippi, which is feuding internally over new revenue projections.

Alaska and Nevada are among nine states that levy no individual income tax. Alaska also has no statewide sales tax, instead relying heavily on oil revenue and earnings from investment funds.

The bulk of Nevada’s revenue comes from sales and gambling taxes, which fall heavily on out-of-state travelers spending money in places like the Las Vegas Strip. As a result, Nevada’s revenue plummeted when the COVID-19 pandemic kept tourists away; it rebounded to produce a historic $11.6 billion biennial budget as tourists returned and inflation took hold.

States ended fiscal 2023 with total savings and cash balances of a record $407 billion — up significantly from the $111 billion they had at the close of 2020, according to NASBO. Those balances are projected to decline in the current year, but they should provide a cushion against declining tax revenues.