A ballot initiative asking Californians if they would like to secede from the United States was cleared to gather signatures late last month.

According to the Legislative Analyst’s Office, the California Independence Plebiscite of 2025, or Calexit, would create “a 20-member state commission on California sovereignty and independence from the United States” that, by 2028, would “be required to produce a public report on the ability of California to govern itself as an independent nation.”

Then, on the November 2028 ballot, voters would be asked: “Should California leave the United States and become a free and independent country?”

If at least 50% of registered voters participate and at least 55% vote “yes,” then the vote “shall constitute a vote of no confidence in the United States of America and an expression of the will of the people of California to become a free and independent country.”

The problem is, Section 1 of Article III of our state constitution says California “is an inseparable part of the United States of America.” The state constitution also says, “the U.S. Constitution is the supreme law of the land.”

The U.S. Constitution meanwhile is silent on the issue. It doesn’t provide a method for leaving the federal union. But there was a Civil War to seemingly settle it back in the 1860s — and the union won.

But let’s, for a moment, put all that reality aside. Let’s convene a state commission on California sovereignty and independence from the United States right here on these pages and answer the question. Can California govern itself as an independent nation? Well, to answer that you really need to ask, can we afford it?

It is often said that California is the world’s fifth or sixth largest economy, which bodes well for us. The governor likes to call us a “nation state.”

California also has some of the highest taxes in the nation. We have the highest individual income tax rates, highest state sales tax, one of the highest gas taxes, highest corporate tax west of the Mississippi and while we aren’t the highest in property taxes thanks to Prop. 13, we aren’t all that low either.

This year, the governor has proposed a $322 billion spending plan, which would be the second largest budget in state history. That’s a lot of money. But is it enough money for California to take care of itself?

If the state’s response to these disastrous fires in Southern California is any indication, the answer is a resounding no. According to CalMatters, “[t]he economic impact of the ongoing Los Angeles-area fires alone is estimated to be at least $135 billion.” That apparently could upend the state’s already troubled finances.

“The bottom could completely fall out,” Gov. Gavin Newsom told reporters at his budget presentation.

Newsom had to go to the federal government for help and President Joe Biden agreed they would cover the cost of our disaster efforts for 180 days. But Biden isn’t president anymore. Donald Trump is. The same guy the governor called a special session to “safeguard” California against.

That led to an odd exchange on the tarmac when Trump came to California to visit the disaster areas.

“They’re going to need a lot of federal help. Unless you don’t need any, which would be OK,” Trump said. Newsom replied, “We’re going to need a lot of federal help.” We’re not even a country yet and already we need foreign aid.

Now we hear that Newsom was in the nation’s capital this week to beg for even more federal assistance.

While California may have an economy and tax base sufficient to be its own country, it appears to be incredibly lacking in the necessary leadership. The governor and the Democratic supermajority in the Legislature prefer political grandstanding over fiscal responsibility and have little to show for it.

In fact, all they have done is make California an incredibly difficult place to live for many. Or, to put it another way, as former British Prime Minister Tony Blair supposedly said, “A simple way to take measure of a country is to look at how many want in and how many want out.”

In 2023, the last year of available data, 268,052 more people left California than moved in. That probably explains why a U-Haul from Sacramento to Boise costs more than $2,000 while one coming the opposite direct is only about $500.

California fails the “nation state” test.

Jon Coupal heads the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association.