


President Donald Trump is torching the U.S. economy. He’s attacking our trade alliances and our ability to control inflation. Yet corporate and political leaders who should have the greatest interest in condemning such destruction remain oddly quiet. Nearly all Republican lawmakers, whose own voters are hurt most by Trump’s trade agenda, remain loyal cheerleaders for the president’s whims. Corporate executives, whose stock prices have plummeted, likewise refuse to question Trump’s actions publicly, saying they will do so only if things get much worse.
But what exactly are they keeping their powder dry for? What would it take for them to even gently critique Trump’s agenda?
The president’s erratic tariff policies are already paralyzing businesses and raising costs. American farmers are shedding customers as other countries retaliate. Yet the captains of industry who might be expected to speak up have mostly rolled over. Even trade associations that loudly criticized economic policies from previous presidents — and can provide political cover for individual companies that fear coming forward — have been curiously restrained.
Many seem to believe they can resolve issues behind the scenes by exploiting personal relationships with White House officials. But there’s little evidence this back-channeling is working, despite some willful delusions otherwise.
Sure, there have been some isolated tariff exemptions, such as for iPhones. But even those are temporary, while the administration prepares more durable duties on the entire semiconductor supply chain. There have also been periodic “leaks” about how a newly chastened Trump is making deals and de-escalating trade wars, thanks to closed-door discussions with wise American executives. But these deals keep turning out to be vaporware.
One such news cycle happened this week. Anonymous officials told the Wall Street Journal that Trump might reduce his China tariffs from 145 percent to “only” 50 or 65 percent. Markets were euphoric. Huzzah, the trade wars might end soon!
But there are at least two problems with this narrative: First, even a 50 percent tariff on Chinese goods is still gargantuan. It’s more than double the average rate the United States levied on such products last year. U.S. companies simply cannot absorb that additional cost. (For context: It’s twice Walmart’s average product markup.)
The second, bigger problem: There’s no evidence Trump will actually do it. He claims he’s had great negotiations with the Chinese government, suggesting a resolution is nigh.
But Beijing denies the two countries have spoken at all, calling reports of an imminent deal “fake news.”
The news cycle then moves on — and the U.S. companies that stand to lose out still say little publicly, aside from bland statements thanking the president for “productive” private meetings.
Trump’s threats to fire Jerome H. Powell are another example. The president has criticized the Federal Reserve chair for pausing interest-rate cuts and warning that escalating tariffs might lead to higher prices. Trump has demanded the Fed slash interest rates anyway, even though that might worsen inflation.
This erosion of Fed political independence could inflict much greater long-term damage than Trump’s trade wars. Countries where politicians, rather than independent civil servants, control the money supply — such as Venezuela and Turkey — tend to have much worse inflationary outcomes. That’s because the public starts to doubt that the central bank will make unpopular decisions necessary to control price growth.
Unfortunately, GOP lawmakers and bank execs have mostly refused to sound the alarm about these risks. Instead, unnamed Republican Senate aides only say that their (also anonymous) Senate bosses “care a heck of a lot” about Fed independence. They just don’t care enough to, you know, say so publicly.
Days later, after some market turmoil, Trump claimed that he had “never” considered firing Powell and that the media fabricated the entire Fed-bullying narrative. Wall Streeters breathed a sigh of relief, apparently believing the threat had passed.
I wish I could take comfort in this development, too. I can’t.
That’s because I’ve heard all the other threats Trump has made against Powell and the Fed — including right after trying to soothe markets this week. Trump has also telegraphed plans to name a much more pliable Fed leader soon. (Powell’s term as chair ends next year.)
The lesson here is that private pleas and even market panic do not chasten Trump. The U.S. economy, like the U.S. democracy, needs real leadership, preferably from people Trump might actually listen to. Sooner or later, business leaders and Republicans must rise to the occasion — if not out of courage, at least due to naked self-interest.