If Vikings fans have learned anything over the past three decades, it’s that their purple standouts often meant more in fantasy than reality.

The numbers bear it out. The Vikings’ top stars, whether you’re talking about hall of famers such as Randy Moss or Cris Carter, or stars such as Robert Smith and Randall Cunningham, have often been more highly regarded in terms of fantasy stats posted than, say, championships posted.

But the Vikings are not nearly as highly regarded in fantasy circles this season:

• Justin Jefferson — Everyone’s No. 1 fantasy player heading into last season is all that no longer. His 2023 knee injury, combined with Minnesota’s quarterback issues, has knocked No. 18 all the way down to the mid-to-late first round in most fantasy forecasts.

• T.J. Hockenson — He’s one of the best NFL tight ends when healthy. Which he isn’t. His Christmas Eve knee injury will linger into the start of this season, so a pro who could be counted on as a top 10 TE in the past is nowhere near that in the preseason rankings.

• Aaron Jones — The former Packer lands with the border rival just as he’s about to turn 30. And he was mostly a nonentity last season until a three-game rush at the end brought his stats up to respectability. Joining a team that was 29th in rushing last season, no one is too optimistic.

• Jordan Addison — Last year’s rookie star proved harder to stop on NFL fields than, say, Los Angeles freeways. He posted great numbers in his first season (70 catches, 911 yards, 10 touchdowns), but much of that came during Jefferson’s absence. And this past offseason might confirm that Addison is an all-pro only at idiocy.

But the NFL is filled with players who look significantly better in August than they will in January. So here is our abbreviated list of those who will fall short of their lofty expectations.

Overrated running backs

Breece Hall (Jets) >> Can you remember the last time the Jets had the NFL’s consensus No.2 running back? Neither can we. Hall is coming off a season with 299 touches for 1,585 yards. Impressive. But only nine touchdowns? He’s a late first-round guy who should be drafted only after safer bets such as Bijan Robinson, Ja’Marr Chase or Jefferson.

Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) >> He was a Detroit sensation with 234 touches for 1,261 yards and 11 touchdowns. And he’s ranked by many as high as No. 5 in preseason fantasy lists. But much of that output was enhanced by the absence of backfield-mate David Montgomery, who is healthy again. Do not overbid on anyone in the Lions’ offensive attack.

>> Raheem Mostert (Dolphins) — A personal favorite who had a career season in 2023. But he might be the all-time leader in Likelihood for Regression. While his 22 total touchdowns were very impressive, they were even more so considering he came into the campaign with only 19 career paydirts. Add in the presence of De’Von Achane and Jaylen Wright. Enough said.

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) >> Being a No. 1 running back means less when you play on one of the crumbiest offenses in the history of man. Somehow he’s being ranked in the 20-RB range despite the fact he has run for only five TDs in the first three seasons. Oh … and he’ll be splitting time with the versatile Antonio Gibson. No chance he’s a top 20 rusher.

Nick Chubb (Browns) >> His career may have ended last season with a beyond-traumatic knee injury. Chubb was already over 7,500 career total yards before his knee blew up. Yet he’s still listed among the top 30-or-so running backs this season. You cannot put your faith in a knee that we all saw devastated in 2023. If he ever resembles the Chubb of old, it won’t be in 2024.

Overrated receivers

Puka Nacua (Rams) >> He had arguably the greatest rookie season of any NFL receiver not named Randy Moss, with 105 receptions for 1,486 yards, But there are two big reasons he won’t live up to his top-seven rating this season. First is the return of all-world Cooper Kupp. The second is Nacua’s knee injury, which might limit him in the first few weeks of the season.

Brandon Aiyuk (49ers) >> His current contract issues seem particularly pointless and destructive to a 49ers team that has narrowly missed two Super Bowl titles in the past five years. But just looking at the numbers, a top-12 ranking seems a bit much for a receiver with only seven TDs last season. Even if he ends up in Pittsburgh.

Drake London (Falcons) >> He’s suddenly a top-15 receiver after catching only two touchdown passes last season and only six in his two NFL seasons. Is Kirk Cousins going to improve the Atlanta offensive attack THAT much? We respectfully disagree.

Zay Flowers (Ravens) >> Every season a Baltimore receiver is overrated, and this year it’s Flowers, who posted decent numbers last season (77 catches, 858 yards, 5 touchdowns). But nothing special. With Derrick Henry arriving in Baltimore and shifting the focus some from the passing game, Flowers will be nothing more than a No. 2 option behind star TE Mark Andrews.

DeAndre Hopkins (Titans) >> An excellent player, but he will not be adding to his possible hall of fame résumé this season. He posted OK numbers last season in Nashville (75 catches, 1,057 yards, 7 touchdowns). But Hopkins’ summer injury ended any chances that QB Will Levis will help spark a DeHop revival.

Overrated quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) >> He’s the most obvious first-ballot hall of famer currently in the NFL … and he’s still ranked way too high on fantasy lists. It’s the same story every year. He’s infinitely more likely to win a Super Bowl than he is to live up to his top three QB fantasy ranking (especially since he’s running much less and threw only 27 TD passes last season).

Dak Prescott (Cowboys) >> The No. 1 Hot Take subject on ESPN, and a perennial late-season mess. He’s coming off one of his best passing seasons (4,516 yards and 36 TDs), but he has done little running since his graphic 2020 ankle injury. You cannot overvalue Prescott over under-the-radar vets such as Jared Goff, Cousins or … stop the presses … Aaron Rodgers.

Jordan Love (Packers) >> Somehow his second-half flurry last winter has vaulted him into the top-10 QB conversation. Rodgers isn’t the only one chuckling about that. Love is a fine but overrated QB. And his mobility might be his most overvalued trait as he rushed for only four touchdowns last season. The real top-shelf quarterbacks do more.

Overrated tight ends

Trey McBride (Cardinals) >> The ranks of tight ends are such that this decent-enough player has achieved top-five status despite tallying only four touchdowns in two seasons. He had 81 catches for 825 yards last season. Arizona will post much better offensive numbers in 2024, but we’re betting McBride won’t.

Kyle Pitts (Falcons) >> You might have forgotten The Loop’s praise for Pitts when he was a rookie prospect from Florida. But we cannot, and we feel some shame. This perennial underachiever has averaged two touchdowns and less than 700 over three NFL seasons. And Cousins is supposed to change that? Not very likely …

Coming up

Next Sunday we unveil our pre-draft favorites. Then the spirit of Nipsey Russell will be with us all on Sept. 1 when we present the “Match Game” legend-inspired NFL preview. There’ll be plenty of rhyme and reason for all.

You can hear Kevin Cusick on Wednesdays on Bob Sansevere’s “BS Show” podcast on iTunes. You can follow Kevin on Twitter — @theloopnow. He can be reached at kcusick@pioneerpress.com.