As Joe Biden’s presidency enters its final month, one way to assess his foreign policy legacy is to look at how America’s adversaries are doing. And the answer, almost overwhelmingly, is poorly. The “axis of upheaval” — Russia, China, Iran and North Korea — is in much worse shape than it was four years ago. Some of this is good luck, but some is the product of good strategy and painstaking work. In any event, this new reality offers some real opportunities for President-elect Donald Trump to make significant gains over the next year.
Iran might be in its weakest state in decades. During those decades, the Islamic republic developed a careful and complex asymmetrical strategy to undermine the U.S.-led security structure in the Middle East. Iran funded an array of militant groups — from Hezbollah to the Houthis to Hamas — as well as the Syrian government, to keep Israel, plus Saudi Arabia and other moderate Arab states, on edge. That strategy is now in tatters. Israel’s attacks have devastated Hamas and Hezbollah and weakened Iran. Without those pillars of support, and with Russia distracted, Assad’s regime collapsed.
Israel claims to have destroyed many of Iran’s air defenses and ballistic missile capabilities. Rebuilding air defenses might be difficult because the most advanced ones come from Russia, which is bogged down in Ukraine. Iran’s economy has been battered by sanctions, and inflation remains high.
Russia’s weakness is also increasingly clear — something I wrote about last week. Many of its sources of revenue are declining, defense production cannot replace what it is losing on the battlefield, and inflation has also remained high. It can recruit young men to the army only by offering them first-year wages that are about four times Russia’s average income. It has had to rely on North Korea for weapons and even men to keep going.
The China story is more complicated. China is still the world’s second-largest economy, but it is clearly facing a series of huge problems: a collapsing real estate market (which has underpinned economic growth in that country for decades), a huge overall debt load, slowing productivity growth and very low levels of consumer confidence.
China’s malaise goes beyond just economics. Its army seems rife with corruption, as the latest of many crackdowns attest. Xi Jinping’s foreign policy has been largely counterproductive, alienating countries near and far.
How much of this can members of the Biden team take credit for? A fair amount. They rallied the world to oppose Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and put in place sweeping sanctions. They have supplied Ukraine with weapons and encouraged Europeans to do the same on an unprecedented scale. (They could have done more, but they did a lot.)
In the Middle East, the Biden administration has supported Israel more than many realize, even as officials often cautioned it to be more discriminating in its actions. The United States actively participated in the military defense of Israel against two Iranian missile attacks — a rare occurrence.
With China, the Biden team has brought both European and Asian countries together on a converging policy toward Beijing. It’s sometimes forgotten that Europe had agreed in principle to a trade deal with China when Biden entered the presidency. The Biden administration brokered a rapprochement between Japan and South Korea, which has helped solidify the balance of power against China in Asia.
The challenge for Trump, as Thomas Friedman recently noted, lies in handling our adversaries’ weaknesses, not their strengths. Is there a way to keep pressure on Iran but also offer it incentives to cooperate — to cap its nuclear program and lessen support for militias? Can Russia be squeezed to take a deal that allows Ukraine to thrive as a pro-Western democracy yet allows Russia to save face? Can China be weaned off its close alliance with Russia?
These are all difficult tasks, but Biden’s achievements do provide Trump with opportunities. The president will not get a thank-you from his successor, but perhaps he will be treated better by history.
Email: fareed.zakaria.gps@turner.com.