They’re off and running. The checkered flag has been waved, and a flock of candidates have emerged to campaign for two wide open North Bay seats in California’s state Legislature.

The dominoes began to fall because a Sonoma County Democrat, state Senate President Pro Tem Mike McGuire, is term-limited out of his North Bay-North Coast Senate District 2 seat at the end of 2026. McGuire has yet to announce what he’s running for in 2026. It’s likely for a state constitutional office.

A vacancy in the Marin-Sonoma Assembly District 12 was precipitated when its incumbent, past San Rafael Councilmember and Marin Supervisor Damon Connolly, decided to run for the state Senate in McGuire’s soon-to-be-vacant district.

Three well-qualified candidates have now declared their intention to campaign for the Senate District 2 post. They include Connolly, James Gore, a member of the Sonoma County Board of Supervisors, and Santa Rosa City Councilmember Natalie Rogers. All are Democrats.

District 2 stretches from the Golden Gate to the Oregon border. It includes the counties of Marin, Sonoma, Mendocino, Trinity, Humboldt and Del Norte.

Populationwise, Sonoma is the largest county with 254,790 registered voters. Marin comes in second with 173,872. Districtwide, of those voters, 53.3% are Democrats, 19.8% are Republicans and 18.9% are “no party preference” independents.

Connolly’s desire to move to the Legislature’s Upper House was no secret. Out of respect for him, potential Assembly candidates held off declaring their intentions to run for the District 12 post until he formally declared his state Senate candidacy. He took that step last week.

Assembly District 12 encompasses all of Marin and 45% of Sonoma County. It includes Petaluma, Rohnert Park, Cotati, Penngrove, southern parts of Santa Rosa and a sliver of Sebastopol. Marin is the district’s largest county with 173,872 registered voters. The Sonoma portion has 140,257 voters. Districtwide, 59% of voters are registered Democrats, 18.6% are no-party-preference and 15.5% are Republicans.

The first two Assembly candidates declaring their intention to succeed Connolly were Marin Supervisor Eric Lucan, a former Novato mayor, and Corte Madera Councilmember Eli Beckman.

Following close behind are San Anselmo Vice Mayor Steve Burdo, who confirmed his candidacy mid week, and Tiburon Mayor Holli Thier, who also serves as a Golden Gate Bridge District board member.

Others mentioned as possible District 12 candidates are Sebastopol farmer and past Assembly candidate Steve Schwartz and Rohnert Park Councilmember Jackie Elward. Neither have responded to my inquiries, so their candidacies haven’t been confirmed. All six are Democrats.

All 2026 elections for the state Legislature will be conducted under California’s “top two” election system. All candidates run in the June primary. Candidates placing first and second in the primary, regardless of party designation, will face off in November 2026.

With only three candidates in the Senate District 2 election, it seems inevitable that November’s runoff will be between two Democrats.

There’s a different dynamic in the Assembly District 12 campaign. If there are five or six candidates, all of whom are Democrats, there’s a good possibility that any Republican who enters the race, even at the last minute, will have a decent chance to make November’s runoff.

It’s a matter of mathematics. Six Democrats will divide the vote so that a Republican who achieves 20%, the GOP registration, could come in second. Of course, they’ll inevitably lose the November runoff in a landslide given Assembly District 12’s politically “deep blue” electorate.

The Republicans’ best potential candidate, Novato business owner and past Assembly candidate Andy Podshadley, won’t run. A pragmatic, center-right conservative, Podshadley wisely shuns the divisive culture wars. He’d be a viable candidate if he ran as an independent and sticks to economic issues.

In future columns, I’ll look at the Senate District 2 and Assembly District 12 candidates, describing their individual qualifications and legislative priorities.

Columnist Dick Spotswood of Mill Valley writes on local issues Sundays and Wednesdays. Email him at spotswood@comcast.net.