When President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on U.S. trading partners in early April, economists warned of dire consequences — higher prices, rising unemployment and possibly a recession.

Three months later, inflation remains muted, the job market remains strong and forecasters have dialed backed their recession predictions.

“The so-called ‘Experts’ were wrong again,” Trump declared on social media last week. “Tariffs are making our Country ‘BOOM.’ ”

Not so fast, economists say. They point to evidence that the effects of tariffs are starting to show up in the economic statistics, albeit in subtle ways.

Data from the Labor Department on Tuesday showed that overall inflation remained tame in June, but that prices were up sharply in some categories affected by tariffs, such as toys and appliances. The job market, too, is starting to show some cracks, and there are signs consumers have begun to pull back their spending.

Economists expect that evidence to mount in the months ahead, as companies use up inventories built up before the tariffs took effect and begin passing costs on to customers.

“It was always going to take a few months to filter into the hard data,” said Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University.

Economists once expected a much steeper slowdown. But those dire predictions came in response to the punishingly high tariff rates that Trump announced in early April. Those policies never took effect: The president paused most of the tariffs in response to turmoil in financial markets, and later agreed to temporarily reduce tariffs on China as well.

Even the reduced tariff rates are the highest in decades, and most economists are confident that the policies — and the uncertainty surrounding them — will lead to faster inflation and slower growth. But the damage will be subtler and more gradual than if the duties that Trump announced in April had taken effect.

“The extreme tariff policies haven’t happened yet,” said Michael Madowitz, an economist at the Roosevelt Institute. “If you’re looking for those in the data, you probably aren’t going to find them.”

In recent days, Trump has sent letters to foreign leaders threatening to impose steep tariffs Aug. 1. If he follows through and raises tariffs on major trading partners, the recession warnings could return.

Economists cite several reasons for the delay. With consumer confidence low and concerns about the direction of the economy high, companies can be reluctant to raise prices too quickly lest they scare off customers. The frequent pauses and reversals in Trump’s trade policies may also be leading companies to hold off on pricing decisions until they see where tariffs ultimately settle.

“I think the uncertainty is preventing these adjustments from happening,” Cavallo said. Given that uncertainty, “you might decide to wait because you’re going to pay a cost for adjusting your price — you might antagonize your customers.”