North Korean leader could seek leverage with Russia

WAR IN UKRAINE

A trench in Novodarlivka, a village occupied by Russian soldiers and recaptured by Ukrainian forces, in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine is seen on July 6. A possibility of North Korean weaponry aid could move Russia’s war effort forward in Ukraine. DAVID GUTTENFELDER — THE NEW YORK TIMES

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By Choe Sang-Hun

The New York Times

SEOUL, South Korea >> For Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea, a rare trip to Russia this month to discuss military aid for President Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine war effort could provide two things the North has wanted: technical help with its weapons programs, and to finally be needed by an important neighbor.

North Korea has not been used to getting a lot of attention other than global condemnation for its nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests. But Russia’s urgency to make new gains in the war is offering Kim a bit of the geopolitical spotlight — and a new way to both irk the United States and draw closer to Moscow and Beijing.

Though Russia has long been a crucial ally for the isolated North, relations between the two countries have at times grown tense since the disintegration of the Soviet Union. And Russia accounts for very little of the economic trade that North Korea needs; China alone provides nearly all of that.

Now, common interests and worldview are bringing the neighbors closer.

The White House has repeatedly warned that North Korea was starting to ship artillery shells and rockets to Russia and negotiating for more arms deals. And Western officials’ claims this week that Kim will travel to Russia soon indicate that they fear the process is moving forward with more intent.

For its part, North Korea faces critical technological hurdles in its nuclear and missile programs, as well as dire economic need, and Russia could help more on those fronts.

“It’s a win-win situation for both sides,” said Lee Byong-chul, a North Korea expert at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University in Seoul.

One question hanging over such a deal is just how much North Korean aid could move Russia’s war effort forward, especially given the North’s economic difficulties and chronic food shortages. In recent weeks, Kim has visited a series of munitions factories, exhorting the officials there to step up production, according to state media.

But Lee said the North may have a large surplus of ammunition already available, as it has not fought a war since the Korean War armistice in 1953. And with armaments largely based on Soviet weapons systems, North Korean munitions are widely compatible with Russia’s arsenal.

“It’s shocking news for the U.S. and countries in Europe hoping for an early end to the war in Ukraine,” Lee said. “North Korean munitions can add fuel to the fire.”