When Justin Verlander threw his first major-league pitch on July 4, 2005, Buster Posey was a shortstop who had yet to play his first game at Florida State University. When Verlander throws his first major-league pitch for the San Francisco Giants, Posey will be in his first season as the team’s president of baseball operations.

This is to say that Verlander, who reportedly agreed with the Giants on a one-year, $15 million deal, has been pitching for a long time. With Verlander set to turn 42 by Opening Day, it’s fair to wonder how many quality innings he has left in the tank.

Verlander, an MVP and three-time Cy Young Award winner, is coming off the worst season of his career, one in which he battled injuries that hindered his performance. But does Verlander have another productive season left?

On the surface, the future prognosis doesn’t look great. In 17 starts with the Houston Astros last season, Verlander had a 5.48 ERA with 74 strikeouts over 90 1/3 innings. Verlander’s 2.69 walks per nine innings was his worst mark since 2017, the season the Tigers shipped him to Houston. The right-hander’s 1.49 home runs allowed per nine innings is the worst of his career, period.

Verlander’s woes last year partially stem from a diminished four-seam fastball. In 2024, Verlander’s average heater clocked in at 93.5 mph, the slowest of his career since 2014 (92.8 mph).

The right-hander’s fastball has long been elite; when Verlander won the Cy Young in 2022, his four-seam fastball was the single best pitch in all of baseball, per Run Value. Last season, though, opponents had a .299 batting average and a .497 slugging percentage off Verlander’s four-seam fastball, making it one of baseball’s worst pitches.

Injuries didn’t aid Verlander’s fight against Father Time.

Verlander missed Opening Day due to right shoulder inflammation, making his season debut in mid-April. He pitched well early, posting a 3.26 ERA over his first eight starts. In his final start of May, Verlander threw seven innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts against the Mariners, showing he was still capable of dominating.

Once the calendar flipped to June, Verlander’s season went downhill.

Verlander began the month with two similar lines: five innings, four earned runs. He subsequently landed on the injured list due to neck discomfort, which sidelined him until August. Upon returning, Verlander posted an 8.10 ERA over his last seven starts with Houston.

Toward season’s end, Verlander admitted that he returned from the neck injury too soon as the Astros geared up for the postseason. Given that Verlander won his third Cy Young after essentially missing two seasons due to Tommy John surgery, it’s not completely outlandish to wonder if he can parlay a healthy winter into a productive season — even at his age.

Verlander will also have the benefit of pitching at Oracle Park, a stadium that will help him more than most of the Giants’ staff.

Since 2021, San Francisco’s pitchers have a ground ball rate of 47.6%, the highest in all of baseball. Verlander, by contrast, lives in the air with a career fly ball rate of 42.3%. Over the last three seasons, Verlander’s fly ball rate of 46.1% ranks fourth among all pitchers who have thrown at least 400 innings in that span. Last season, Verlander posted a career-high flyball rate of 52.3%. It’s no secret that Oracle Park is a pitcher’s paradise, and Verlander stands to benefit from San Francisco’s cold summer nights.

And while Verlander has lost a couple ticks on his heater, Verlander’s pitch profile still grades out pretty well. Last year, Verlander had 117 Stuff+, a stat that measures the physical traits of a pitch. If Verlander qualified, that would’ve ranked fifth in all of baseball. Verlander’s four-seam fastball, in particular, had a 116 Stuff+, which also would’ve ranked fifth among all fastballs if he qualified.

Great stuff, of course, does not automatically correlate to great results. Logan Webb and Hayden Birdsong had the same Stuff+ last season (111) but had drastically different seasons. That said, Verlander’s ability to spin the baseball at this age isn’t irrelevant.

Verlander’s first year in San Francisco will be his 20th year in the big leagues. Sitting on 262 career victories, Verlander could be the last pitcher for quite some time to have a shot at joining the 300-win club. Time will tell whether Verlander has more years in store or if the Bay Area is the last stop in a Hall of Fame career.

Giants re-sign Wade, Doval, Rogers

The Giants have agreed to contracts with first baseman LaMonte Wade Jr., right-hander Camilo Doval and right-hander Tyler Rogers, avoiding arbitration with all three players.

Wade will make $5 million and Doval will make $4.525 million, according to the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser. Rogers will make $5.25 million, per FanSided’s Jeff Young.

Last November, outfielder Mike Yastrzemski signed a one-year, $9.25 million contract to avoid arbitration as well. Rogers, Wade and Yastrzemski are set to become a free agents following the 2025 season.

Meanwhile, the Giants bolstered their catching depth by claiming backstop Sam Huff off waivers from the Texas Rangers. In a corresponding move, right-hander Austin Warren was designated for assignment.

Huff, 26, is a career .258/.313/.455 hitter with 10 home runs and 20 RBIs over 78 career games. Defensively, Huff is worth -3 defensive runs saved. He’s played in parts of four major-league seasons, only appearing in three games last year.