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WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged Wednesday after cutting it three times in a row last year, a sign of a more cautious approach as the Fed seeks to gauge where inflation is headed and what policies President Donald Trump may pursue.
The Fed reduced its rate last year to 4.3% from 5.3%, in part out of concern that the job market was weakening. Hiring had slowed in the summer and the unemployment rate ticked up, leading Fed officials to approve a large half-point cut in September. Yet hiring rebounded last month and the unemployment rate fell a bit, to a low 4.1%.
In its statement Wednesday, the Fed upgraded its assessment of the job market, calling it “solid,” and noting that the unemployment rate “has stabilized at a low level in recent months.” The Fed also appeared to toughen its assessment of inflation, saying that it “remains somewhat elevated.” Both a healthier job market and more stubborn inflation typically would imply fewer Fed rate cuts in the coming months.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell conveyed a slower approach to interest rate decisions at a news conference with reporters.
“With our policy stance significantly less restrictive than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we did not need to be in a hurry, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance,” Powell said.
Powell has said it is harder to gauge where inflation is headed, in part because of increased uncertainty around what policies Trump will adopt and how quickly they will affect the economy. Trump has promised widespread tariffs, tax cuts and mass deportation of immigrants, all of which could push prices higher. The Fed typically keeps interest rates high to slow borrowing and spending and cool inflation.
In December, Fed officials signaled they may reduce their rate just twice more this year. Goldman Sachs economists believes those cuts won’t happen until June and next December.
In November, inflation was just 2.4%, according to the Fed’s preferred measure, not far from its 2% target. But excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices rose a more painful 2.8% from a year earlier. The Fed pays close attention to core prices because they are often a better guide to inflation’s future path.
Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said “while we continue to think the Fed’s easing cycle has not yet run its course, the (Fed) will want to see further progress in the inflation data to deliver the next rate cut.”
It’s unclear how or if Trump will respond to the Fed’s decision to stand pat. Last week in a video address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump said he would bring down energy prices, then “demand” the Fed lower borrowing costs.
Later, when asked by reporters if he expected the Fed to listen to him, he said, “yes.” Presidents in recent decades have avoided publicly pressuring the Fed out of deference to its political independence.
Asked Wednesday if Trump had communicated his desire for lower rates directly, the Fed chair said he had “no contact.”