The Tigers saw red flags in Javier Báez before they signed the shortstop to a six-year, $140 million contract.

Al Avila, who served as general manager of the Tigers from August 2015 until his firing in August 2022, said during an appearance on The Detroit News’ Tigers Today podcast that there were concerns about signing Báez. But Avila and Co. didn’t envision what has transpired with Báez, who was a negative-1.1 WAR player in 2024, and came into spring training this year not even guaranteed a spot on the major-league roster.

“We knew the swing and miss was there … and we knew that, even my analyst was telling me, there’s regression there. But nobody could’ve predicted falling off a cliff the way he did,” Avila said in his first extended interview about his Tigers tenure since his firing.

“But, you know, at 28 years old (Baez turned 29 the day he signed the contract, on Dec. 1, 2021), you’re not going to have a perfect rise and maintain.

“We felt there was going to be some regression, but never expected for him to fall off that far.”

The Tigers were in rebuild mode for most of Avila’s tenure as GM, especially after the trade deadline in 2017, when Justin Verlander and J.D. Martinez were dealt away for returns that continue to be criticized to this day.

But entering the 2022 season, the Tigers were an optimistic group, and declared the rebuild over. They boosted their rotation early in the offseason, signing veteran lefty starter Eduardo Rodriguez to a five-year, $77 million contract, including an opt-out after the second season (an opt-out Rodriguez eventually exercised).

Then the Tigers went shopping for a shortstop, a position that was manned in 2021 mostly by Niko Goodrum, Zack Short, Harold Castro and Willi Castro. Prospect Ryan Kreidler was coming along, but wasn’t deemed ready for an everyday role (that remains the case today, on the brink of the 2025 season).

So Avila considered two options: Carlos Correa and Báez. Correa was the first choice.

“With Correa, yeah, we were involved with Correa, but the dollars just didn’t make any sense for us. We were not going to go there. I couldn’t get where he was going,” said Avila, 66, who lives back in Florida. “I’m not gonna give you any details as far as the amount (for Correa); we did come up with an idea of a certain salary and years that, you know, I ran by Chris (Ilitch, Tigers CEO). He was like, ‘Ahhh, I’m not sure,’ but at the end of the day I think if I would’ve been able to convince the player and the agent, I think Chris would’ve given me the OK. But I kind of went forward without that, and (the Tigers’ offer) was turned down, and so we had to move on. And then we ended up with Báez.

“At the end of the day, the only thing we could’ve done was not sign Báez and just go into the season with what we had. … Probably the best choice would’ve been just to not sign anybody.”

The Tigers signed Báez to a six-year, $140-million contract, and his first year in Detroit was actually his best, when he had a 2.4 WAR, down from his peak of 6.8, and down from a year earlier of 4.3, split between the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets. He hit 17 home runs and had a .671 OPS, down from 31 homers and an .813 OPS the year before.

The Báez regression was just one of many problems with the 2022 Tigers, who were 43-68 with a negative-122 run differential and in last place in the American League Central when he was fired in early August 2022. (Ilitch gave Avila the option to resign, and perhaps move into a front-office advisory role, but Avila declined, was fired and moved on; Scott Harris, whom Avila praised repeatedly, was hired as president of baseball operations in September 2022.)

Correa, meanwhile, signed a one-year, $35 million deal with the Minnesota Twins, played well, and eventually signed a six-year, $200 million extension to stay in Minnesota.

Correa has been worth 10.3 WAR in three years in Minnesota; Báez has been worth 2.1 WAR in three years in Detroit. Báez also had an opt-out after Year 2, but unlike Rodriguez, didn’t exercise it, and the Tigers remain on the hook for three years more years and $73 million, regardless if Báez, now 32, plays another game for them. (After posting a .221 on-base percentage and .516 OPS in 2025, he appears poised to platoon with Trey Sweeney at shortstop and he also could some time at third base in 2025).

“It wasn’t a desperation move by any means,” Avila said of signing Báez, whom he first scouted when Baez was a high-schooler in Puerto Rico. “It was a very well-thought out move, OK, this is a guy on our radar, obviously we had other guys on our radar from a contract perspective.

“It was the one that fit into our financial picture.”

Aside from the Correa wish, the Tigers also briefly considered bringing back Jose Iglesias on a short-term, low-money deal to play shortstop in 2022, but that wasn’t an attractive option, Avila said. Iglesias played for the Colorado Rockies in 2022 and didn’t play anywhere in the majors in 2023, before resurrecting his career with the New York Mets in 2024.

Báez was shut down in August 2024 to have hip surgery, right around the time the Tigers started getting hot. They turned a 0.5% playoff chance into a wild-card berth, and beat the Houston Astros in the wild-card round, before falling to the Cleveland Guardians in five games in the American League Division Series. Avila said he was rooting for the 2024 Tigers, and that makes sense, given he spent more than 20 years in Detroit’s front office (he was Dave Dombrowski’s chief lieutenant from 2002 until replacing Dombrowski in 2015), and given the 2024 Tigers had more than 20 players on the roster who were acquired by Avila, including Tarik Skubal, Riley Greene, ColT Keith and others.

On The Detroit News’ Tigers Today podcast, Avila talked about a myriad of topics, including challenges of the job he took over in 2015, how he wishes he had started the rebuild sooner, how he brought the Tigers into the 21st century with analytics, and how he misses being around the game on a daily basis. Avila also talked at length about the difference between Chris Ilitch and his late father, Mike.

While Mike was more in the moment in his pursuit of a World Series championship (given his age; he died in 2017 at the age of 87), Chris thinks more long-term, Avila said. And Chris is very involved, Avila said, despite the perception from some fans and those in the media that is removed from the situation.

Chris was very involved in the Báez signing and he quickly signed off on the terms Avila presented. He then sent his private plane to pick up Báez in Puerto Rico, where he was celebrating his 29th birthday.

“He never told me, ‘Don’t sign this guy,’” Avila said of Chris Ilitch. “He would ask me questions, for sure, but he would never said, ‘Don’t do this,’ or, ‘I don’t want you to do this.’

“Obviously from a financial perspective, everything has to kind of fit. But he never said, ‘No, you can’t do this.’”