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DETROIT >> The Tigers’ off-season to-do list, as the Major League Baseball winter meetings begin on Monday in Dallas, remains the same as it was when president Scott Harris addressed the media in early October.
The boxes — adding a right-handed bat or two, specifically on the infield, and bolster both the starting pitching and the bullpen — remain unchecked. And the club’s inactivity to this point feels strategic.
Part of it, certainly, is that a few elite-level dominoes — Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman — have yet to fall. Once they do, the trickle down will likely impact the Tigers. But also, Harris, who in past years has been aggressive prior to the winter meetings (the trade for Mark Canha and the signing of Kenta Maeda happened last November), might be allowing the market prices to settle.
The pitcher market especially has been bananas. Blake Snell is a two-time Cy Young Award winner, but he’s 32 and pitched 180 innings just twice in his nine-year career. The Dodgers will pay him $182 million over five years, with deferrals.
Yusei Kikuchi got three years and $63 million from the Angels. The Mets spent $72 million on Clay Holmes (three years, $38 million) and Frankie Montas (two years, $34 million). Old friend Matthew Boyd parlayed 39.2 innings and three strong outings in the postseason into a two-year, $29 million payday from the Cubs.
The Athletics paid soon to be 31-year-old Luis Severino $67 million for three years.
Pretty steep.
The Guardians brought back Shane Bieber for one year and $14 million. That’s been the type of deal Harris has sought in past years. It’s what he signed Jack Flaherty for last December.
Harris, ever opportunistic, might be waiting for the Burnes domino to fall and then see where the market settles for the likes of Max Fried, Walker Buehler, Michael Soroka or even Nick Pivetta, whose signing would cost the Tigers a draft pick.
The trade market could also be a viable path for Harris. One name that is especially intriguing is Tampa lefty Jeffrey Springs. He is 32 and returned late last season after Tommy John surgery in 2023.
Right before the injury, on April 3, 2023, he punched out 12 Tigers over six hitless innings. Over his career, he’s posted 31% whiff and chase rates. Tampa, reportedly, is listening to trade offers. He’s got two years and $32 million left on his contract.
As for the right-handed bat, it’s likely to be a corner infielder (or outfielder, since Matt Vierling can toggle between third base and outfield). And the names the Tigers have been linked to throughout the industry come with concerns, financial and otherwise.
Bregman, with his still-tight bond with manager AJ Hinch and championship pedigree, seems a natural free agent target. But he is entering his age 31 season and is reportedly seeking six years and up to $200 million. That’s a potential albatross deal.
The Tigers have also been linked to Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado, who is being made available on the trade market. No doubt, the 10-time Gold Glove winner, would be a huge upgrade on the left side of the infield.
But Arenado is 33 and owed $74 million (Javier Baez money) over the next three seasons. Even if the Tigers get the Cardinals to eat some of his salary and he waives his no-trade clause, Arenado has battled injuries and his production has declined the last two seasons.
A trade for Arenado would almost certainly cost the Tigers third base prospect Jace Jung and possibly one or two of their young pitchers. Harris is willing to use prospect capital in trade deals but for a short-term upgrade like this?
That seems out of character, but who knows what intel they are sorting through.Bottom line: It would be a mistake to view Harris’ inactivity as inertia. The winter meetings aren’t the deadline for roster renovation, though with all the attention thrown at it, it can feel like it.
The industry experts believe the Soto verdict will be in soon, perhaps serving as the impetus for a flurry of action at the meetings. If that happens, things will start shaking out pretty quickly. But big deals are often done in January and, as we saw last year, into February.
There’s time for Harris to prudently and effectively improve his ballclub. It’s not like he’s missed out on any player he’s targeted to this point — with the possible exception of Bieber, who seemed to fit the starting pitcher profile he’s seeking.
Here’s a few questions that will hopefully become clearer, if not fully answered, in the next few days:
—Will the Tigers bid on a top-level reliever like Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman or Blake Treinan? The Tigers’ bullpen was an obvious strength last season but its one deficiency was the lack of swing-and-miss at the back end of games. A reliever like Scott is expected to command a multi-year deal with an average annual value of at least $10 million.
—Will the Tigers bring in a veteran first baseman to compete with Spencer Torkelson? The Tigers aren’t ready to bail on Torkelson but his .444 slug, .781 OPS and six home runs in 151 plate appearances after he came back from Toledo last year didn’t exactly secure him a spot in 2025.
The short-term options would include aging and still somewhat pricey players like Carlos Santana (39), Paul Goldschmidt (37) and Justin Turner (40). Mark Canha, who played first base while Torkelson was in Triple-A last year, is also on the market.
Additionally, it is expected that outfielder Justyn-Henry Malloy will get first base reps in spring training.
—How much prospect capital is Harris willing to burn? Are there any untouchables? Jackson Jobe? Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle? Josue Briceno and Thayron Liranzo? Probably. But the untouchable list is probably short.
Jung is ranked as the No. 62 prospect by MLB Pipeline. His best defensive position is probably second base and for now the Tigers have committed that position to Colt Keith.
He and Max Anderson (ranked No. 17 in the Tigers’ system and has a profile similar to Jung) seem viable as trade chips. But what about second baseman Hao-Yu Lee (No. 8 in the system)?
On the pitching side, would they make Ty Madden or Matt Manning available? Would they make Keider Montero available? How about a lower-level prospect like Jaden Hamm?
—Are the Tigers content with a mix of Trey Sweeney, Javier Baez, Zach McKinstry and Ryan Kreidler at shortstop? Would a potentially pricey free agent like Ha-Seong Kim, a right-handed hitter who could plug the hole at third or shortstop, be worth a look?
The Tigers have payroll flexibility (roughly $78 million in committed payroll for 2025) and they have plenty of prospect depth. They also have a president who understands how fast things can fall apart when teams outreach their grasp.
“I understand that dollars spent is the most convenient measure of activity in a given offseason,” Harris said. “It’s not really how we think about it. We don’t chase payroll thresholds. We chase talent.”
To that end, Harris vowed to pursue all avenues, trades, free-agent signings and waiver-wire additions. But he also stressed that the primary path forward was still internal growth.
“If there is a talented player we have conviction in that fits how we play and fits our clubhouse and it costs money, we’re going to pursue him aggressively,” he said. “If we find a talented player we have conviction in that fits how we play and fits our clubhouse and it costs prospects — we’ve done a lot of work to restock our farm system and we should have prospects available to make a trade with.
“If we find a talented player we have conviction in and fits how we play and fits into our clubhouse that costs both money and prospects, we’re prepared to do that, too.”
Preparedness, patience, prudence — these aren’t sexy words for a fan base that was reignited by a late push into the playoffs last season. But the MLB landscape is littered with franchises that misread their own tea leaves, overreached and went backwards.
The MLB landscape is also littered with franchises that waited too long to push in all their chips and go for it.
Harris seems acutely aware of the potholes and pratfalls of both.