SANTA CRUZ >> You can read as many polls as you’d like, but when it comes to predicting elections at any level, guaranteeing an outcome is often a fool’s errand.

However, for the two open seats on the Santa Cruz County Board of Supervisors that appeared on 2nd and 5th district ballots this November, one thing was for certain: next term’s board would seat at least one female supervisor for the first time in 12 years.

While each candidate failed to garner more than 50% of the vote in the March primary, the 2nd District runoff last month between Kim De Serpa and Kristen Brown — of which De Serpa came out on top — did cement a change in the board’s gender balance come January. What local voters may not have known is that when the last ballots were finally tabulated in the 5th District race between Monica Martinez and Christopher Bradford, they would be ushering in a few more firsts of historic proportion.

Not only will Martinez, 42, who wound up defeating Bradford by 13 points, be the second woman to join the board next term, she said she will also become the first openly LGBTQ person to take a seat on the five member board and the first women ever elected to represent the 5th District, which includes the San Lorenzo Valley, Scotts Valley and a portion of Santa Cruz.

“It’s a meaningful milestone for representation in this county,” Martinez, who has been an out lesbian for years, told the Sentinel. “Growing up, I didn’t see many leaders who looked like me or shared my experience. And so my hope is that this election sends a message to others that they belong and that their voices matter and that they can serve their communities at the highest levels.”

In a practical sense, Martinez elaborated, representation leads to better decision making and more inclusive polices for everyone in a time where the national conversation about rights for LGBTQ people appears more fraught than it has been in recent memory. Donald Trump’s successful reelection campaign frequently targeted and demeaned people from the LGBTQ community, particularly transgender people. According to the Associated Press, the Trump campaign and an aligned political action committee spent tens of millions of dollars on advertising that attacked his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, for previous statements she made in support of rights for transgender people.

Many in the LGBTQ-rights movement told the AP last month that they fear the coming administration will roll back protections and civil liberties for transgender people including in the education, health care, athletics and military service spheres.

“I truly believe that the first line of defense for what could happen at the national level will be our local leaders,” said Martinez. “It has been disheartening to be elected during a time when the national narrative is so full of negativity and negative attacks toward people who are marginalized and that makes it feel even more important to have diverse voices on the board locally.”

Martinez rose to prominence in the county first as a leader in the behavioral health sector. She became executive director of Housing Matters in 2010 and eventually left to join Encompass Community Services, the county’s largest community-based nonprofit, as CEO in 2014 — a role she resigned from last month when the outcome of the election became clear.

And while Martinez is cognizant of the historical significance of her victory, she centered her campaign around disaster recovery and resilience, improvement of transportation infrastructure, development of affordable housing and support for local youth; all of which she said will remain central priorities when she takes office next month.

“Really my primary focus is delivering for my community,” Martinez, a Felton resident, said. “While my identify is part of who I am, it really is my deep experience and leadership that will guide me in this role.”

De Serpa’s delight

Leadership is something De Serpa also feels ready to bring to her first term in countywide office. The Salinas native served as a trustee on the Pajaro Valley Unified School District board for 14 years before resigning earlier this month due to an incompatibility with her new role as supervisor.

She also brings with her a decades-long career in social work, most recently spending four years with Salinas Valley Memorial Healthcare System as a lead clinical social worker and manager of social services, work that she has also transitioned out of to focus on her coming job representing the 2nd District.

“I’m hopeful that my experience in governance and my big, compassionate heart will bring similar improvements to the county,” said De Serpa.

For De Serpa, 57, politics was a major part of her life long before she joined any local boards or committees. She said her mother, Nancy, was an aide to the first woman elected to the Monterey County Board of Supervisors, Barbara Shipnuck, and she later worked in a similar role for two decades with now-retired U.S. Rep. Sam Farr.

De Serpa said watching her mother work for years as a single parent to support their family taught her the meaning of truly hard work and helped her embrace a similar role at one point in her own life.

“I’ve been a single mom and I know how hard it is to make ends meet and how the pressures of trying to do that alone can be overwhelming,” said De Serpa. “To the extent that I understand what it’s like to struggle, especially in a community like Santa Cruz County that’s so expensive … I feel like I’m more in touch with everyday people.”

Part of that, she continued, is knowing how to manage a budget — something she said she did well in her time at the school district and plans to continue to focus on as supervisor in the face of a bleak budgetary environment at state and county levels.

“We’re all going to have to tighten the belt,” said De Serpa, adding that one thing she hopes to make some progress on is increasing the county’s property tax revenue, which is much lower than neighboring counties. A solution has proven elusive, in part, because a rate change would require action at the state level that has so far failed to materialize.

De Serpa also plans to bring her health care expertise to the dais, particularly when it comes to abortion rights, which faced a major rollback with the overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022.

“I feel like we’re insulated here in Santa Cruz, but we have to be vigilant,” said De Serpa.

Martinez and De Serpa were formally sworn in Dec. 23, though their terms don’t officially begin until noon on Jan. 6. But as the campaign fades deeper into the rearview mirror and De Serpa finds herself with some openings on her calendar for the first time in 18 months, she said she remains eager to get back to work.

“I just can’t believe I get to do this,” said De Serpa. “I feel so grateful this is my job.”