The United Nations issued a somber global economic forecast for 2024 on Thursday, pointing to challenges from escalating conflicts, sluggish global trade, persistently high interest rates and increasing climate disasters.
In its flagship economic report, the U.N. projected that global economic growth would slow to 2.4% this year from an estimated 2.7% in 2023, which exceeds expectations. But both are still below the 3.0% growth rate before the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020, it said.
The U.N. forecast is lower than those of the International Monetary Fund in October and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in late November.
The IMF said it expects global growth to slow from an expected 3% in 2023 to 2.9% in 2024. The Paris-based OECD, comprising 38 mainly developed countries, estimated that international growth would also slow from an expected 2.9% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024.
The U.N.’s report — World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024 — warned that the prospects of prolonged tighter credit conditions and higher borrowing costs present “strong headwinds” for a world economy saddled with debt, especially in poorer developing countries, and needing investment to resuscitate growth.
Shantanu Mukherjee, director of the U.N.’s Economic Analysis and Policy Division, said fears of a recession in 2023 were averted mainly due to the United States, the world’s largest economy, curbing high inflation without putting the brakes on the economy.
But he told a news conference launching the report: “We’re still not out of the danger zone.”
Mukherjee said that’s because the unsettled situation in the world could fuel inflation. For example, another supply chain shock or problem in fuel availability or distribution could prompt another interest rate hike to bring the situation under control, he said.
“We’re not expecting a recession, per se, but because there is volatility in the environment around us, this is the major source of risk,” he said.
Kia, Toyota, Ford models win awards
The Kia EV9 large electric SUV won the 2024 North American Utility of the Year award, while the Toyota Prius hybrid took the top car honors, and Ford’s Super Duty pickup won the truck award.
The honors, announced Thursday at a meeting of the Automotive Press Association in Detroit, are often used in advertising by automakers. About 50 automotive journalists from the U.S. and Canada tested and rated the vehicles based on how much they set new benchmarks for their segment of the automobile market.
All of the SUV finalists this year have electric versions including the electrified GV70 small SUV from Genesis, Hyundai’s luxury brand, and the Hyundai Kona and Kona EV.
In addition to the Prius and its plug-in version called the Prius Prime, car finalists included Hyundai’s Ioniq 6 EV and the redesigned Honda Accord midsize sedan.
Private hiring stepped up in December
U.S. companies ramped up hiring in December, suggesting there’s still appetite for workers in a cooling labor market.
Private payrolls increased 164,000 last month after a revised 101,000 gain in November, according to figures published Thursday by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The reading came in above all but one estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
The advance was led by services sectors including leisure and hospitality and education and health services. The West and the Northeast added jobs, while the South and Midwest cut positions.
Meanwhile, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell last week to 202,000 for the week ending Dec. 30, down by 18,000 from the previous week, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
— From news services