Take it from Niels Bohr: “Those who are not shocked when they first come across quantum theory cannot possibly have understood it.” Much the same may be said of quantum technologies, a promising — and increasingly crucial — application of that theory.
Last week, Alphabet Inc.’s Google announced a major advancement in the field. Its quantum chip, called Willow, performed a calculation in less than five minutes that might take a regular (or “classical”) computer 10 septillion years, “a number that vastly exceeds the age of the universe,” says Hartmut Neven, manager of Google’s quantum lab. He further mused that the result “lends credence to the notion that quantum computation occurs in many parallel universes, in line with the idea that we live in a multiverse.”
Whatever one makes of that latter theory (evidence TBD), the company’s progress is striking. Quantum computers encode data in units called qubits — analogous to “bits” in traditional parlance — that can take advantage of subatomic oddities to generate potentially enormous computational power. Since achieving a previous milestone, in 2019, Google has doubled the number of qubits on its chip while exponentially reducing its error rate. Other big companies, including International Business Machines Corp. and Microsoft Corp., are also moving ahead quickly. A functional quantum computer, long theorized, now looks plausible within the next decade or so.
That could have significant benefits societywide. By simulating molecular interactions, quantum computers could one day dramatically accelerate drug discovery and lead to more effective treatments. By solving complex optimization problems, they could make logistics and transportation systems more efficient, thereby boosting growth and slashing pollution. Climate and weather modeling might become more accurate, batteries more effective, digital communications more secure. Luminous other possibilities await experimentation.
Quantum technology more broadly — which includes communications, computing and sensing — is advancing rapidly. For militaries and intelligence agencies, the race to dominate this new field is already heated. Quantum sensing may enhance reconnaissance and surveillance systems while providing an alternative to GPS for navigation or positioning. Quantum communications could harden sensitive electronic networks. A quantum computer could (in theory) accelerate development of autonomous weapons or provide unimpeded access to an adversary’s encrypted files.
Although the US has traditionally led the world in such technology, its primacy isn’t assured. Harnessing the vast potential power of qubits should be an urgent goal.
President-elect Donald Trump, who enacted a useful quantum policy in his last term, could do much more in his second. One challenge — perhaps a job for Elon Musk and Co. — is to impose order on the dozen or so quantum centers already established governmentwide, to avoid wasted effort and encourage strategic coherence. The Pentagon’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, which aims to validate algorithms and applications for industrial use, offers a good example of directing resources toward a clear and limited purpose. The next administration will also need to work with allies to bolster quantum supply chains, set technical standards, harmonize export controls and perform other dull but essential work.
Congress, too, should rise to this challenge. Reauthorizing the National Quantum Initiative — which, among other things, would offer $2.7 billion for quantum R&D — should be a priority. More support for quantum-focused tech hubs, such as the Chicago Quantum Exchange, would encourage cooperation between industry and academia and help build a stronger workforce. Finally, as in so many high-tech fields, US immigration policy is inhibiting progress: Lawmakers should make it easier for foreign graduates with in-demand skills to stay in the US, significantly expand access to H-1B visas, or create new visa programs for high-skilled migrants in specialized fields.
One needn’t grasp the baffling complexities of quantum mechanics to see how critical these technologies may soon be. The world is racing ahead, one qubit at a time, and the US should take the lead.
The Editorial Board publishes the views of the editors across a range of national and global affairs.