Q >> What are our chances of making the playoffs now? I didn’t have us winning against either Baltimore or K.C. but that loss definitely makes our path harder.
— Gabriel, Boston
Parker >> Literally, the Broncos’ postseason chances are 41%, at least according to the New York Times’ playoff prediction model. They were slightly higher, but not much, before the past two games. And that speaks to what you’re getting at: The Broncos weren’t expected to win either game and they didn’t. The fact that the combination of losses was brutal — a blowout and a stunning walk-off — doesn’t change the reality of Denver’s situation. They’re right in the mix and the way the AFC field is shaping up, they don’t figure to go anywhere.
Denver’s next three games are home against Atlanta and Cleveland around a road trip to Las Vegas. They’re likely to be favored in all three. If they get those games, the New York Times model jumps to 71%.
If the postseason started today, the Broncos would be in as the No. 7 seed and visiting Buffalo. The two teams directly behind Denver in the standings: Indianapolis and Cincinnati. The Broncos play both over the last seven games. Win those two plus two of the next three and nine wins just might be enough. Pick off one more and get to 10-7 and you’re almost certainly in the field.
In fact, the importance of those two games can’t be overstated given the way the race looks now. Let’s say the Broncos lose to Atlanta at home to fall to 5-6, but then beat the Raiders, Browns and Colts. Later, they also beat the Bengals. Without knowing any other results, the NYT model puts Denver’s postseason odds at 96%.
The team further back that has a relatively easy schedule and could get hot: Miami. They’re 3-6 but have two games left against the Jets plus Las Vegas, New England and Cleveland. They’d lost six of seven but beat the Rams on Monday night and at least have a chance of getting on a roll.
For the Broncos, though, 2-1 minimum over the next three games plus wins over the Colts and Bengals would be a great start toward Wild Card Weekend.
Q >> Who do you think will be Pro Bowlers this year? I got Pat Surtain II, Nik Bonitto, Jonathon Cooper, Zach Allen and Quinn Meinerz. And maybe Courtland Sutton if he keeps up his production. What say you?
— Rocky, Commerce City
Parker >> That looks like a pretty good list to me. Not sure Bonitto and Coop both make it given the sheer number of pass-rushers in the league and the unlikelihood that both of the Broncos’ guys get to 12-14 sacks. Not to say they’re not both worthy of consideration. They are. And when your unit is good, like the Broncos’ has been so far, the love seems to follow.
I’d bet there aren’t too many nickels playing better overall than Ja’Quan McMillian, though he doesn’t have numbers that jump off the page and a few of his mistakes have been obvious ones.