NEW YORK >> U.S. stocks drifted lower Monday ahead of a momentous week full of potential flashpoints in Washington, D.C., and around the world. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, although it remains near its record set last month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 257 points, or 0.6%, while the Nasdaq composite slipped 0.3%.
Intel fell 2.9%, and chemical producer Dow sank 2.1% in their first trading since getting notified they’ll no longer be included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway dropped 2.2% and was one of the heaviest weights on the market after reporting a drop in operating profit for the latest quarter.
But most stocks within the S&P 500 rose, including a 2.8% gain for Fox after it reported a stronger profit than expected. That was despite increases in some costs, including for newsgathering at Fox News to cover this election cycle.
Election Day will arrive Tuesday, although its result may not be known for some time as officials count all the votes. That’s raised fears about the possibility of sharp swings around the world because markets infamously hate uncertainty.
History may be less foreboding. The broad U.S. stock market has historically gone on to rise regardless of which party wins the White House. And in 2020, U.S. stocks climbed immediately after Election Day and kept going even after former President Donald Trump refused to concede and challenged the results, creating plenty of uncertainty. A large part of that rally was due to excitement about the potential for a vaccine for COVID-19, which had just shut down the global economy.
“Bottom line — the U.S. election is incredibly important, but the process is likely to be incredibly noisy,” according to Michael Zezas, a strategist at Morgan Stanley.
For markets, Zezas also points to how prices may have already moved ahead of expected outcomes from the election. A win for Trump this election could mean U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports, for example, which could hurt the value of the Mexican peso. But the peso has already fallen against the U.S. dollar in recent months, which could limit further moves if a Trump win were actually to happen.
A Trump victory would be less of a surprise to markets this time around than in 2016, when Treasury yields soared on expectations for tax cuts that could further inflate the nation’s debt or fuel a stronger U.S economy. Treasury yields have already climbed in recent weeks, in part due to rising expectations in some market corners for a Trump win, along with a spate of data showing the U.S. economy has remained stronger than feared.