I’m hoping to not be embarrassed again this year.

It’s now been four seasons in a row where I have finished second to my dog on my March Madness brackets. This year I’m even more concerned than in previous seasons. We have a new dog and she is way smarter than her predecessor.

Rosie, my previous opponent, wasn’t really a fan. I’d present her with two pieces of paper for each game, and the one she tripped over is the one I interpreted as her choice. Dottie, her successor, is formidable. Only the lack of opposable thumbs keeps her from dunking on me. This year she gives me the two pieces of paper and tells me to choose. I’m hoping not to trip.

I’m not confident.

But then why would I, or anybody else in the world, be confident that they can predict the outcome of the ultimate winner in this yearly foray?

If you are a betting person, the odds of your selecting every game right in the March Madness brackets are one 1-in-120 billion. Not impossible. Except for the fact that it’s never been done.

Those odds, however, are designed for those who are knowledgable in the game of basketball and who would have the head-to-head edge. If you do as most of us do and toss a coin on every game, the chances of winning are a tad less.

Like 1 in 9.2 quintillion. Unless George Washington’s picture is on the quintillion dollar bill, I have never seen or even heard of one. So I checked. A quintillion is merely a trillion billion. Or roughly speaking, slightly more than Elon Musk’s tee-shirt budget.

Two things strike me here: 1) Now I don’t feel so bad about my March Madness track record; and 2) Have you got change for a five?

By the time you read this yarn, the tournament will already have disposed of at least eight teams. That would include my dead-lock-cinch upset teams of the first round. Because of the fact that Johannes Gutenberg still operates the back shop printing press, this column is due by noon Thursday for Friday’s print edition of the Marin IJ. So Thursday’s games, while yet to be played as I type this, are already over — leaving most brackets, and I’m certain my own, left to the shredder.

So here are my early round “I told you so,” or “Sorry about that” upset predictions.

No. 9 Creighton beats No. 8 Louisville. No. 13 Yale upsets No. 5 Michigan. No. 11 Drake drops No. 6 Missouri. On Friday, I like No. 10 Utah State over No. 7 UCLA (with apologies to my pal Brian Murphy).

Then there’s the tried and true handicapping method that the ultimate winner of the “Last Person Standing” pool always adapts. Pick the winner by the school’s nickname.

To that end, may I offer a primer for those who are left using this method.

The first priority is to pick a classification of mascot that is in sync with your own personal view of survival.

Here are some options: birds, dogs, nasty beasts or passive beasts, warriors — either warlike or territorial, natural disasters, or others.

“Birds you say?” Well, you’ve got two kinds of hawks, a blue jay, a cardinal, two eagles, and a duck.

If you’re into a more relatable category, there is a terrier, and the most common name of all at this year’s tournament: five bulldogs.

Nasty beasts seems to be the deepest category this year. So, for your flesh eating pleasure, I give you three cougars, four tigers, two wildcats and assorted gators, razorbacks, badgers, grizzlies, and hornets.

If you prefer your beasts of a more passive nature, you’ve got a couple of rams, the Longhorns, the Bisons, the Bruins, the ‘Lopes and the Terrapins

The natural disaster category includes the Cyclones, Flames, Red Storm, and Crimson Tide. Gruesome.

Now warriors are subjective. On what side of the battle do you lean, and does your mascot have the bite it might have once possessed?

All right. You’ve got the Musketeers, the Aztecs, Rebels, Gaels, Commodores (if your prone to officers’ clubs), and Trojans (not USC) on the world-wide warrior side. On the more regional spectrum, take your pick of the Cowboys, Sooners, Mavericks, Mountaineers, Tar Heels, Volunteers (for you anti-draft supporters), and Fighting Illini.

Finally “others.” This would be the Blue Devils (just seems like a non-sequitur to me), Boilermakers, Tritons, Zips and a couple of Aggies.

Somewhere in there you have the winner of the 2024-25 National Championship.

Just to take a momentary step away from the silliness, this is a very tough tournament to pick against the favorites. There is real quality amongst the teams expected to gather in San Antonio for the Final Four.

Inevitably there is a Cinderella, and inevitably Cinderella’s carriage turns into a pumpkin before the dance is over. Of the four teams who will be there in the end. I think it’ll be two number ones, a number two and a number three seed.

I think that Duke, Houston, and Florida shine the brightest. Auburn is a number one overall seed and yet I think beatable right now. The other number one, Alabama, I think is vulnerable. The number three seed who’ll be there, is Iowa State

I’d be lying if I told you I don’t have a soft spot for Randy Bennett and the Saint Mary’s Gaels. They’re good. I think they can beat Vanderbilt, their first round opponent and Alabama would be next. I can’t predict it, but if the nation’s leading defense holds up and they can shoot the ball (which they didn’t against Gonzaga in the WCC final), it’s not out of the question they get to the round of 16.

But when the dust all subsides, I’m taking Houston to beat Florida in the final; after beating Duke in the semis. The Cougars are talented, quick, play great defense, and are well coached by Kelvin Sampson.

That’s the way I see it.

One second… let me ask my dog Dottie if she agrees.