The Grammy Awards boast more than 90 categories.
They range from best classical instrumental solo (our money is on Icelandic pianist Víkingur Ólafsson this year) to best música Mexicana album (go Peso Pluma!).
Still, the event, especially the portion shown on broadcast coverage, tends to be dominated by the biggest names in pop music: Beyoncé, for example, leads all nominees with 11 (she has 99 for her career), followed by Post Malone, Billie Eilish, Kendrick Lamar and Charli XCX with seven each, and Taylor Swift and first-time nominees Sabrina Carpenter and Chappell Roan with six each.
The awards that get the most attention, of course, are the “big four” general field categories, where the nominated singers — irrespective of genre — battle it out for top honors.The big four field this year is absolutely fantastic. There is so much great talent. So many good stories. It should be a treat to see how it all plays out when “music’s biggest night” goes down at Crypto.com Arena in downtown Los Angeles today.
Here are our predictions for who will win the four biggest categories — album of the year, record of the year, song of the year and best new artist.
Tune in to see if they come true when the Grammys air live at 5 p.m. on KCBS Channel 2 and Paramount+. (You can also stream the awards on any service that includes CBS and view the show up to 24 hours afterward on Paramount+.)
Album of the Year
And although you can never count out Tay-Tay in this (or, really, any) Grammy category, we really don’t think the biggest star on planet Earth will win her fifth album of the year prize for what is — no doubt — the worst offering of her beyond-compare career.
On the other side of the coin is Beyoncé, who has lost this category as many times as Swift has won it. (And she has actually lost to Swift twice — in 2010 and 2015).
We’ve spent years predicting that Queen Bey will finally have that breakthrough — for albums far better than 2024’s “Cowboy Carter” — only to have voters keep proving us incorrect. Do we dare being wrong once again and say that this will be Beyonce’s year? That’s a tough one.
Looking beyond Swift and Beyoncé, this category is loaded with great storylines and possible winners.
Putting her Disney Channel tenure ever further in the rearview mirror, Carpenter released the best mainstream pop album of the year with “Short n’ Sweet.” Eilish is always a threat to win, at pretty much every award show, and “Hit Me Hard and Soft” is another excellent offering.
Charli XCX and Roan captured the zeitgeist of 2024 perhaps better than anyone else in the business, as the former turned the title of “Brat” into the word of the year, and the latter skyrocketed from seemingly out of nowhere into pop’s top tier.
Honestly, it’s such a close race that it wouldn’t be shocking to see any of these six women take home the trophy. The only surprise would come if either Andre 3000’s “New Blue Sun” or Jacob Collier’s “Djesse Vol. 4” managed to sneak a win.
Who will win: Yeah, we might be a glutton for punishment, but we’re going with Beyoncé — once again — to finally have that breakthrough and win for “Cowboy Carter.”
Record of the Year
Go figure.
Yet, we’d rather see the award go to any of the nominees besides the Beatles’ “Now and Then,” since they’re all better.
Well, maybe not “Texas Hold ‘Em.”
Lamar’s “Not Like Us” might be the most impressive in the pack, a first-tier “diss track” that serves as further proof he’s the best rapper alive. Yet, we’re not sure how many votes will go to a track that references someone as a pedophile.
Roan’s “Good Luck, Babe!” and Charli’s “360” are — to borrow from summer 2024 — totally brat, but neither delivers that caffeine-style buzz quite like Carpenter’s “Espresso,” which is good but not quite good enough.
“Fortnight” is quite good, even though its parent album by Swift isn’t.
And that leaves an undeniable triumph from an established Grammy winner, a soaring tune that has the look, feel and momentum often associated with a record of the year winner.
Who will win: Look for Eilish to add to another award to her already ridiculously overcrowded trophy case thanks to “Birds of a Feather.”
Song of the Year
So, we thought about going in the other direction and picking the one with the fewest writing credits. And that’s “Not Like Us,” a Lamar-Drake feud number that voters aren’t likely to further reward in the general field. (Although it could win both of the rap-specific categories that it’s nominated in.)
Swift holds the lifetime record for most nominations in the category — eight — and, remarkably, has yet to score a win here. So, that’s definitely something working in favor of “Fortnight.”
A win for “Birds of a Feather” would make it two years in a row in this category for the O’Connell siblings (Eilish and brother Finneas), who triumphed in 2024 with “What Was I Made For?”
Who will win: While it’s tempting to spread the wealth — especially to include Swift — we’re actually going to double up here and say that “Birds of a Feather” will win both record and song of the year.
Best New Artist
Let’s be honest here — the category boils down to a two-artist race between skyrocketing pop stars.
In one corner is Roan, who rode massive internet buzz, an opening slot on Olivia Rodrigo’s Guts World Tour and a collection of solid retro-dance-pop tunes to worldwide fame.
She’d be an absolute shoo-in to win in most years, except that — well — we have the person responsible for the best mainstream pop album of 2024 waiting in the other corner.
That would be Carpenter, whose top-to-bottom solid “Short n’ Sweet” served as a convincing case that she now needs to be ranked among the genre’s top names.
We’re not, however, convinced that Carpenter deserves to even be in this category — given that “Short n’ Sweet” is her sixth (!) album. But Grammy voters probably don’t pay attention to such details — just ask Shelby Lynne.
Beyond the studio, both singers showed they are formidable live artists when they performed at the Outside Lands festival in San Francisco.
Who will win: Roan, by a nose, over Carpenter. Although we’d be willing to accept the first-ever tie in this category.