With Election Day just days away, the presidential race remains stubbornly tight but surprisingly fluid. According to the RealClearPolitics average on Wednesday, Donald Trump is leading in every swing state except Michigan and Wisconsin, but only within the margin of error. As of mid-October, as many as a quarter of voters in swing states said they had not made a firm decision.
Which raises the question: Who, exactly, are these voters who could end up determining the outcome of this election?
A deep dive into their attitudes and concerns indicates that calling them “swing voters” is something of a misnomer; in truth, most of them appear to be “reluctant Trump voters.” They agree with Trump’s critique of the Biden-Harris administration. They think the country is headed in the wrong direction. They overwhelmingly disapprove of Kamala Harris and think Trump would do a better job on the key issues they care about. But they have not committed to vote for him — and might never do so.
A Washington Post-Schar School poll conducted Sept. 30 to Oct. 15 showed 26 percent of swing-state voters were still uncommitted — and they were much more negative about the Biden-Harris administration than the wider electorate. Only 25 percent approved of the job Joe Biden is doing as president (compared with 40 percent of all voters). Only 32 percent approved of the job Harris is doing as vice president (compared with 44 percent of the broader electorate). Fifty-seven percent said Harris is too liberal. By contrast, 50 percent approved of the job Trump did as president.
These voters were also far more negative about the state of the economy than voters at large: Seventy-nine percent said the economy is “poor” or “not so good,” and 66 percent said the economy is getting worse under the current administration, while just 10 percent saw it as getting better. Fifty-two percent said Trump would do a better job handling the economy, while just 18 percent said Harris would. Fifty-two percent also said Trump would do a better job on immigration, compared with 17 percent who said Harris would.
Other polls have found similar results. Recent New York Times-Siena polls found that 18 percent of voters in key swing states were not firmly committed to either candidate. A majority were male and didn’t have college degrees, and 66 percent described themselves as either moderate or conservative. Moreover, 58 percent said the issues they consider most important are ones that favor Trump — including inflation, jobs and immigration - while just 27 percent said they care most about issues such as the climate, abortion and health care, which favor Harris.
This is seemingly good news for Trump. He has far more room to expand his support among these voters than Harris does. And they are numerous enough and negative enough about Harris and the direction of the country to deliver the presidency for him.
But they haven’t necessarily committed to do so. Indeed, many told pollsters that they might not vote at all. According to the Post-Schar poll, 80 percent of registered swing-state voters said they definitely plan to vote, but only 52 percent of uncommitted voters said they definitely will. And just 42 percent believed their vote matters (compared with 69 percent of all voters) while only 54 percent said they care who wins.
In other words, uncommitted voters are unhappy with the direction of the country and unhappy with their choices — and many are thinking about throwing up their hands entirely. That would be a disaster for Trump. He lost the last election by just 42,918 votes in three swing states.
It’s not too late for Trump to win them over. He needs to appeal directly to these reluctant voters and acknowledge that while he knows they don’t like the way he talks or acts, he also knows they liked the results of his presidency — that our border was secure, our cities were safe, our economy was strong, inflation was low, gas was cheap and the world was at peace. His message should be: You don’t get those policies without the personality. It’s precisely because I’m tough that I get things done.
Trump started to make this case a few weeks ago during his conversations at the Detroit Economic Club. “You know, a lot of people say, ‘We love Trump’s policy, but … we don’t like him. He’s a little bit crass,’” Trump said. “And then … Lindsey Graham said, ‘But Trump’s policy doesn’t work without Trump.’ And there’s a lot of truth to that.”
He should make this a central message of his closing argument: Yes, I fight a little dirty at times, but I always fight for you. That simple acknowledgment would tell swing voters he gets what they don’t like about him, and give them permission to vote in their self-interest.
If uncommitted voters break for Trump on Election Day, they could deliver him a landslide victory. If they stay home, they could put Harris in the White House.