In a widely anticipated move, the Federal Reserve voted earlier this month to lower the federal funds rate by a half point. For the first time since the sharp COVID recession four years ago, the Fed saw enough signs of a weakening economy to lower interest rates. While we can neither control the Fed nor the global economic situation, there are steps we can take to make the most of an easing interest rate environment.
Pivot your safe money. We have been living in a golden era of saving that has rewarded those with money set aside. For the last couple of years, even the “safe” money has performed well. With inflation rates (not actual prices) now below 3% annually by some measures, savvy savers have received real income from money stashed in a CD, money market or online banking account.
But now, savers have a decision to make. Do they take advantage of higher rates on cash now or lock in lower rates for the next few years? It’s difficult to tear yourself away from today’s rates, as you can still find government money market funds paying close to 4.9%. This is where the decision gets challenging. Because of the inverted yield curve with decreasing interest rates as the maturities get longer, savers must accept less interest to lock in rates for a longer period.
If you were to purchase Treasury bonds (or ETFs that hold these bonds) that mature each year from 2025 to 2029, today’s yields to maturity would average about 3.7%. At first glance, locking away money for lower interest than what you can receive on short-term cash makes no sense. Why wouldn’t you put your safe funds in a money market paying more interest? The answer is that if you believe the so-called Fed watchers, interest rates will continue to decline. That means you cannot count on that same rich money market rate of return as it can change daily. Instead, consider shifting some of your cash if you don’t need it right away into medium-term interest-earning instruments.
Consider refinancing if you have high-interest debt. While most of us with mortgages have rates far below the ones available today, 30-year mortgage rates have come down significantly from their highs to now just above 6% for some borrowers. Certainly, there’s a distinct possibility that rates will continue to decline. However, you can still use no-cost options to refinance your significant debt including mortgages, home equity loans and car loans. No-cost debt refinance could help you now even if rates continue to decline.
When does it make sense to refinance your debt? The decision can be more straightforward when costs are minimal. Car loans are often available with no loan costs, so make sure you would be reducing interest costs enough with a new loan to be worth your time.
Refinancing a mortgage can be quite involved and expensive with loan fees, appraisal costs and other closing expenses. One way to evaluate a refinance is to get a quote for a true “no-cost” mortgage, which means the interest rate quoted to you generates enough credit on your refinance transaction to eliminate all costs. This simplifies the math, as you don’t need to weigh paying loan closing costs now versus the ongoing savings of a lower rate. If you get a no-cost mortgage quote with a rate at least a half percent below your current one, that would be enough for me to consider refinancing.
Prepare for a slower economy. One strategy that may not be as evident as the others involves the “why” behind the Fed lowering interest rates. In short, the Fed is lowering rates due to the risk of a slowing economy and higher unemployment. Looking at the periods when the Fed lowered rates in the past, in many cases the economy entered a recession over the next year. While there are different explanations for this phenomenon, one rationale is that the Fed lowers rates when it forecasts a worsening economy.
Accordingly, the stock and employment markets may not continue to perform as well as they have over the past few years. So, this is a good time to consider whether you have enough cash set aside for lean times and also whether the amount of risk you’re taking with your investments is appropriate given your circumstances. In my opinion, it’s better to change your investment strategy now when markets are relatively quiescent than during a more volatile market environment.
David Gardner is a certified financial planner and is admitted to practice before the IRS. He recently retired from an independent investment advisory firm and continues to write about financial topics. As financial planning is only possible after knowing the client, the column is not intended to be personal financial or tax advice. Data presented is believed to be accurate at the time of writing.
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