When the flow of official data ran dry during the federal government shutdown, policymakers worried the drought would make it hard for them to know if the economy took a turn for the worse.

Those fears may be becoming a reality.

Private employment fell by 32,000 jobs last month, payroll processing company ADP said Wednesday. It was the third decline in four months and, taken at face value, would be a clear sign that the labor market, after months of cooling, had entered a new, more worrying phase.

But other sources have not shown the same kind of sharp decline, and more authoritative data isn’t available because of the lingering effects of the shutdown. The November jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which was scheduled for release Friday, has been delayed until Dec. 16, and the government is skipping the October report altogether. Data on inflation, spending and production have also been delayed.

The lack of official data has contributed to divisions among policymakers at the Federal Reserve, who disagree about how to weigh the risk of a weakening labor market against the possibility of worsening inflation. Under federal law, the central bank is responsible for keeping employment high and inflation low.

The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its meeting next week. But the decision is unlikely to be unanimous, with some officials preferring to keep rates steady, and at least one wanting a larger cut.

The ADP data showed widespread job losses, with declines in employment among manufacturers, construction companies and professional services firms. Losses were concentrated among small businesses, which cut 120,000 jobs even as larger firms added employees.

“It is those mom-and-pop, Main Street companies, firms, small businesses and establishments that are really weathering what is an uncertain macro environment and a cautious consumer,” Nela Richardson, the chief economist at ADP, said in a call with reporters. “I see them as a canary in the coal mine.”

Richardson said the latest data is consistent with other evidence of a two-track economy, in which wealthy households, buoyed by stock-market gains, are spending freely, while lower-income consumers have become more cautious. Businesses aren’t hiring as many seasonal workers this year, Richardson said, and wage growth has slowed, especially at small businesses, which will put more pressure on family budgets.

Economists have been watching ADP’s data more closely than usual because of the delays in government data. But they warn that ADP’s data doesn’t fully replace the official statistics. It measures only the private sector, meaning it does not reflect federal job cuts. And ADP’s client base, though large, isn’t fully representative of the overall U.S. economy.