Caleb Williams’ growth and recent performance has been impressive. As best as I can tell, he hasn’t had to encounter the same volume of blitzes and heavy pressure that he did in the first few games. Have you seen any evidence of progress in his ability to recognize blitzes and hit the hot read? — Allan C., Solon, Ohio
Congratulations. You hit on one of the areas in which Williams and the offense have been a ton better in the last three games than the first three.
The Bears were a mess against the blitz at the start of the season and have been lethal against it over the last three games. The numbers don’t lie. Here are Williams’ statistics when teams rush five or more:
Weeks 1-3: 10 of 24 (41.7%), 56 yards (2.3 per attempt), 1 TD, 1 INT, 5 sacks, 45.8 passer rating, 5.6 QBR
Weeks 4-6: 19 of 24 (79.2%), 245 yards (10.2 per attempt), 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 2 sacks, 148.8 passer rating, 91.7 QBR
It’s like night and day with identical passing volume and, interestingly, pretty much the same time before each throw. Williams averaged 2.75 seconds per attempt versus the blitz in the first three games and 2.82 seconds in the last three.
Protection has been better. He was hit 14 times on a blitz through the first three games and only four times over the last three. This is throwing an awful lot of statistics at you and we could be in the weeds for a while if we wanted, but I don’t think we need to go deeper to understand he has shown some real gains.
It’s a combination of recognizing presnap what’s going to come and making an adjustment or check before the play begins, as well as reacting and diagnosing where the ball needs to go postsnap with more proficiency. Credit goes to the offensive line for communicating better how it will handle pressure and for giving Williams time and to the skill-position players for getting open. I bet Williams would tell you offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has had him better prepared, too, with good calls against pressure. Williams has shown the most improvement, but the offense as a whole has gotten better in this regard.
This is just one way we can study what Williams has done in what remains a very small sample size and say, “He’s legitimately getting better.” That was more of a mind-bending exercise during the rookie seasons of other quarterbacks who have gone through Halas Hall in recent years.
Will this make future opponents reluctant to pressure Williams? No. They’re still going to bring pressure and try to exploit matchups they believe are tilted in their favor. We’ll get a better handle on how he’s playing against the blitz when the Bears get into the thick of the NFC North schedule.
I’d point out the last three games included two at Soldier Field and one at a neutral site with a heavy pro-Bears crowd. It’s a little more challenging to face pressure on third down when you’re on the road in a loud stadium. Here’s where the six opponents, beginning with the most recent, rank through Week 7 in pass defense (yards allowed per game and per attempt):
Jaguars: 31st ypg, 30th ypa
Panthers: 25th, 31st
Rams: 18th, 27th
Colts: 23rd, 24th
Texans: 4th, 2nd
Titans: 3rd, 4th
As you can see, the degree of difficulty has been low the last three games. That’s part of the equation too. What did you do and whom did you do it against? When you look at how the next three opponents stack up, it’s fair to expect the passing game to continue to produce:
Commanders: 12th, 26th
Cardinals: 26th, 32nd
Patriots: 24th, 25th
I would note the Commanders are sixth in sacks per pass attempt (9.95%) — slightly ahead of the Bears — so Dan Quinn’s defense has been getting home but also has a propensity to allow big plays.
Instead of being a buyer at the trade deadline, what are the chances Ryan Poles is a seller? I’m thinking Nate Davis and Khalil Hebert. — Thomas B., Johnsburg
There were numerous questions about potential trades with the deadline less than two weeks away at 3 p.m. Nov. 5. I would describe Poles as aggressive in a calculated manner. While nothing can be ruled out, I’ve been pretty clear in this space that I don’t expect a big acquisition unless a sudden need emerges.
Plenty of folks have asked for weeks about the potential addition of an offensive lineman. The Bears hope to have Ryan Bates and Larry Borom back from injured reserve in the near future. Folks banging the drum for a trade to supplement the line have either forgotten or are overlooking the potential return of these veterans.
In terms of being a seller, I’d also be a little surprised if something came together. Would the Bears be willing to trade Davis? Sure. They told you as much when he was a healthy inactive for the last game in London, and they signaled as much the week before when he was behind Bill Murray on the depth chart. Is this a realistic move? I think it’s more likely the Bears wind up releasing Davis during the season, especially if they need a roster spot for Bates or Borom.
Davis has an $8.75 million base salary, and the same level of play that led the Bears to demote him is available for the other 31 teams to review. If the Bears are going to put Murray on the field for the first offensive snaps of his NFL career, don’t you figure other teams would explore other alternatives before offering to trade for a veteran making a lot of money? Davis looks like the kind of player who could benefit from a change of scenery, but I have serious doubts such a change would be created by a trade.
As for Herbert, my opinion is he provides more value to the Bears — as a reliable backup who knows the offense and as a kickoff returner — than he would in a trade that might be nothing more than a pick swap. In the event something happens to D’Andre Swift or Roschon Johnson, Herbert can step right in. And with more than half the season to go, odds are decent he’ll be needed for a larger role at some point.
If the Bears moved Herbert and got little in return, they would be scrambling if a need arose unless Travis Homer was back from finger surgery. And Herbert is a better offensive option than Homer, whose primary role is as a core special teams player.
Is this Sunday a revenge game for Montez Sweat? In general, how often is revenge a motivating factor in a player’s performance assuming there’s a trigger (trade, draft selection, etc.)? — @brooklyncorn
I won’t try to speak for Sweat, but I doubt he looks at this as a “revenge game.” The first point I would make is that players are pretty good, generally speaking, about not putting more emphasis on one game over another. There are so few of them and they all carry a ton of weight.
Revenge implies that the Commanders did wrong by Sweat, and I don’t know that they did. They had a heck of a run drafting defensive linemen, and guys in front of him got paid: tackle Jonathan Allen (2017 draft), who is out for the season with a torn pectoral muscle, and tackle Daron Payne (2018). That made it difficult for the Commanders to write another huge contract for a defensive lineman. They were effectively rebooting and in a position where they could have used extra draft capital.
The trade to the Bears helped Sweat achieve his goal quicker of receiving a contract extension. The key players in the front office when Sweat was in Washington are gone. The coaches are gone. The owner is gone. I’d bet most of the folks remaining are people Sweat maintains a pretty good relationship with.
The Commanders believed in Sweat enough to use a first-round draft pick on him in 2019 when some teams had medical concerns about him coming out of Mississippi State. The Commanders helped develop him. Obviously he did a lot of that work on his own, but I’m not convinced there’s anything here to avenge. Of course he’ll want to excel against former teammates and in front of fans who once rooted for him.
After self-scouting during the bye, how does the offense continue to improve? — @mmesq11
The most obvious area in which the Bears need to improve is starting faster. They’ve scored only 10 points in the first quarter, which ranks 30th in the league. It’s tough sledding when you’re consistently falling behind in games and taking three or four series to find a rhythm. The biggest problem is the Bears have been dreadful on third down in the first quarter.
“I wouldn’t say it’s the script,” tight end Cole Kmet said. “It’s player execution and us being better in that regard. Just having that mentality of coming out fast, not getting our beaks wet. We’ve got to be out there ready to roll. Whether it’s handling our warmups or whatever that is, we’ve just got to be more dialed in to start the game. I know that’s a focus for us this week.”
The coaching staff would tell you the offense needs to get better in every regard, and there is a lot to tighten up.
The Bears need to run the ball more consistently. They’re averaging 104.8 yards per game (24th in the league) and 3.74 yards per attempt (31st). The best way to improve that is to sprinkle in more explosive runs.
The good news is they had seven explosive runs (10 yards or more) in the blowout victory over the Jaguars after totaling only eight through the first five games. Caleb Williams had three of those against Jacksonville and is more than capable of picking up chunks of yardage when the opponent is locked in man coverage.
If the Bears can have more success running the ball, it would allow the offense to be more balanced.