Donald Trump’s implicit threat to use military force will hopefully put an end to the Iran-Hamas led hostage crisis.
Even before taking office, Trump has repeatedly threatened Hamas and it’s puppet-masters in Iran that “all hell will break loose” if the estimated 100 hostages, about 70 of whom may still be alive, are not released before he takes office on January 20th. For those keeping track, Trump will assume office 471 days after the October 7th massacre.
Forty-three Americans were murdered, dozens more injured, and American hostages were kidnapped and taken to Palestinian territory in Gaza. The hostages were used as human shields by Iran’s armed terrorist proxy force. Multiple American hostages are believed to still be alive and it’s time to deprive Hamas and Iran of this latest inhumane bargaining chip.
The deplorable conditions the hostages have faced should make your blood boil. Israel’s Health Ministry submitted a harrowing report to the United Nations this week detailing the neglect, physical abuse, torture, humiliation and sexual abuse endured by the innocent hostages.
Teenagers were forced to perform sexual acts on each other and their monstrous captors performed sexual acts on them, including whipping their genitals. Two young children were burned. Male captives have suffered severe torture, continued starvation, and been forced to defecate on themselves. Many of the hostages have been murdered or died from medical complications.
Over 450 days into this crisis, the Biden administration has failed to secure the safety or return of these hostages. By its own admission, the Biden administration’s public pressure on Israel made matters worse and caused Hamas to pull back from a hostage deal. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken told the New York Times, “whenever there has been public daylight between the United States and Israel, and the public perception that pressure was growing on Israel, we’ve seen it: Hamas has pulled back from agreeing to a cease-fire and the release of hostages.”
Conversely, there is no daylight when it comes to Trump and Israel. Trump is a proven supporter of Israel and is expected to take an assertive posture to conflicts with Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and Iran as further evidenced by his initial appointments to key administration posts. Trump praised his incoming Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, who is on his way to Qatar and has been engaged with the Biden team.
History may repeat itself as this hostage crisis is reminiscent of the first Iranian hostage crisis 44 years ago.
On November 4, 1979, a group of armed militant Iranian college students who supported the Iranian revolution, stormed the United States Embassy in Tehran and took 66 hostages. Shortly thereafter, they released some of the hostages.
Ayatollah Khomeini, Iran’s new political and religious leader refused to release the remaining 52 American hostages. Day after day, American hostages, in handcuffs and blindfolds, were terrified and even paraded in front of hostile crowds chanting “death to America.” These hostages were treated inhumanely and didn’t know whether they would be tortured or murdered.
The American hostage crisis became a symbol of President Jimmy Carter’s presidency and was a key factor in his failed re-election campaign. On January 21, 1981, a few hours after President Ronald Reagan was sworn in, the hostages were released after being held captive for 444 days.
Carter and Biden each served one-term as president and have been viewed by these adversaries as weak. Both fumbled the ball when it came to solving this issue diplomatically. In Biden’s case, Hamas and Iran have taken advantage of Biden’s public disagreements with Israel. Carter and Biden were followed by Reagan and Trump, who ushered in a new era of conservatism and created an aura of strength as they juxtaposed their positions against them during the presidential campaigns.
Ironically, the hostile and dangerous Iranian regime, which took power with a deep animus toward both Israel and the United States, has sown the seeds of the current crisis through its massive financial and military support of Hamas.
Four decades later, Iran, like its proxies, finds itself on the ropes. Israel has decimated Hamas and Hezbollah while embarrassing and exposing Iran’s military weaknesses. Trump also has a personal vendetta after suggesting assassination attempts were tied to Iran. Two months ago, Attorney General Merrick Garland announced that the Justice Department charged an asset of the Iranian regime “who was tasked by the regime to direct a network of criminal associates to further Iran’s assassination plots against its targets, including President-elect Donald Trump.”
Here’s the bottom line: Hamas and Iran don’t know what Trump will do. They do, however, know that Trump isn’t going to engage in endless negotiations that don’t bear fruit. If the hostages are released now it will only be because of Trump’s coercive diplomacy.
If all hell were to break loose, the Iranian regime that started the first hostage crisis may find itself coming to an end as a result of the second one they perpetuated. And, Iran will carry much more than blood on their hands.
Forewarned is forearmed.
My bet is that to save themselves, Iran will order Hamas to end it, just as they did forty-four years ago when Reagan walked into the White House.
Doug Friednash grew up in Denver and is a partner with the law firm Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck. He is the former chief of staff for Gov. John Hickenlooper.