Treasuries are on track for their worst month in more than two years amid signs of economic strength, posturing for next week’s presidential election and heavy supply of new notes and bonds.

U.S. government debt was briefly buoyed Tuesday by a surprise slide in job openings that was then offset by a jump in consumer confidence. Despite generally stronger-than-expected economic data since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in mid-September, traders are clinging to wagers on a quarter-point reduction at next week’s Fed meeting.

The recent rout had shaved 2.4% off a key gauge of Treasuries in October as of Monday’s close. That puts the market on track for its worst monthly performance since September 2022 as traders grapple with a slew of risks associated with economic indicators, the Treasury debt supply outlook, the election and the Fed’s next policy announcement.

“There’s still a good deal of information for the market to digest in the coming days and weeks,” said Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. .rates trading and strategy for AmeriVet Securities. “Sentiment feels fragile.”

The selloff has lifted yields by some 60 basis points this month and driven a measure of term premium toward the highest since last year. The ICE BofA Move Index — a gauge of volatility that tracks anticipated swings in yields based on options — reached a 2024 peak, showing investors expect little relief from the turbulence.

Yields rose further Tuesday ahead of the third auction of fixed-rate Treasury debt this week, a $44 billion seven-year note sale that followed tepid demand for two- and five-year note auctions on Monday. The selloff abated after the seven-year notes drew a lower-than-anticipated yield. Late in New York, Treasury yields were about 1 basis point lower out to five years and close to flat for longer-dated benchmarks.

Still, the auction schedule is unusually congested, with sales of three-, 10- and 30-year debt ahead next week, giving investors reason to be cautious. The Treasury is set to announce the size of next week’s debt sales today.

Tuesday’s yield peaks were the highest since early August for the two-year, while the 10-year reached a level last seen in early July.

The economic data had limited impact on expectations for what the Fed will do, suggesting that Treasury supply is a leading driver of higher yields. Traders continued to price in about 23 basis points of easing for the November meeting and a sum of about 42 basis points by the end of the year. That reflects doubt that the Fed will deliver the two quarter-point cuts for this year officials had projected.

Proximity to the presidential election is also a factor. Selling Treasuries has become “the most well-known” trade in the lead-up to the vote, according to Harry Colvin, senior market strategist at Longview Economics.

“Fiscal support will boost growth and inflation and, all else equal, result in tighter monetary policy and higher rates,” he said. That combination adds to “concerns about the potential lack of U.S. fiscal discipline in Congress and rising indebtedness.”

A barometer of U.S. fiscal concern are the margins by which Treasury yields exceed interest-rate swap rates. ive and 10-year swap rates are lower than equivalent Treasury yields by the widest margins the post-Libor era, and reached new extremes Tuesday.