The debate over power rankings

BASKETBALL NOTEBOOK

Low-win teams have qualified for postseason

Malden Catholic’s Julian Rodriguez, left, jumps for joy as teammates Colin Mannke (12) and Abraham Camara (1) carry the Div. 2 championship trophy after a win over Sharon last March in Lowell. STAFF PHOTO — STUART CAHILL/BOSTON HERALD

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By Matt Feld

mattwfeld@gmail.com

The data on teams qualifying for the MIAA Basketball tournament has coaches and administrators wondering if exploring a win-minimum in the age of power rankings is worth further discussion.

Over the first three seasons of the power rankings system that began in 2021-2022, 147 boys and girls basketball teams have qualified for playoffs with sub-.500 records. Of those 147 teams, 54 recorded seven or fewer wins. As of the latest MIAA power Rankings release on Friday, another 57 sub-.500 teams across all five divisions are slated to earn a tournament berth with nearly half, 26, having under eight wins.

“I’m from the old school when you needed to win 70 percent of your games. Then it became 50-percent,” Sandwich girls coach MIke Barrett said. “You should have to rely on your own success to make the tournament. Now, if you play enough good teams who win enough games then you can get in. I don’t agree with winning two or three games and making the tournament because you play some teams that win a lot of games.”

Barrett is in his third year at Sandwich and for the first time is chasing a tournament bid despite potentially finishing below .500. Last season, the Blue Knights were 19-1 and secured the seven seed in Division 3. This year, largely due to ACL injuries to stars Madison Lawrence and Aubrey Schwager, Barrett’s group is 7-11. Regardless, they still find themselves in position for a postseason spot as the No. 22 seed in the latest MIAA rankings.

“I don’t like the formula, I have said that many times,” Barrett said. “My message to the kids though is that we’re playing a tough schedule. We thought we’d have Madison and Aubrey. Aubrey is working her way back. If we’re able to get in with our schedule though, I know our kids believe in themselves.”

Sharon’s Andrew Ferguson has found his boys program on both sides of tournament qualification.

In 2023, the Eagles were the No. 3 seed in Division 2 after posting an impressive 17-3 record. Last year they qualified via the old-fashioned method of posting a record above .500 (13-7) while also achieving the No. 7 seed in the power rankings. This time, however, Ferguson’s group is relying solely on the power rankings to achieve a tournament seed. Not all hope is lost. Despite being 3-15, Sharon enters the final week of the regular season as the No. 35 seed in Division 2 and a mere 0.05 points out of a tournament berth.

“This system definitely helps to keep seniors engaged. We play one of the hardest schedules in the state. And now we’re trying to prove we belong in that top 32,” Ferguson said.

Ferguson said the opportunity to get in despite a lackluster winning percentage is “without question” impacting his coaching. He recalled a recent situation where he decided not to have his fouls at the end when down single digits in hopes by losing by less than 10 points — the maximum a team can get docked for under the current formula.

“We got it down to eight against Taunton a few Fridays ago and in previous years we have been fouling,” Ferguson said. “Then, though, we just played defense. Those extra two points are very valuable.”

Mansfield coach Mike Vaughan has never had to fret about his team qualifying for the postseason under the new format, but still believes changes are in order. While Vaughan’s group is being rewarded from their tough schedule by being slated as a No. 2 seed despite four losses, the 21-year head coach does not believe it is just.

“I feel almost guilty having four losses and being a top seed, it’s not right,” Vaughan said. “The power rankings should be used to separate teams who are clustered together. If you have one or zero losses, you should be guaranteed to be towards the top, and then separated based on power ranking. No one with one loss should be a nine seed, or a 13 seed. It makes zero sense.”

Vaughan used the example of Somerset Berkley, who knocked off the Hornets en route to the Final Four last year. The Blue Raiders’ have nine of those key pieces back this year and are 16-1 but are poised to be outside of the top four seeds due to their opponents value.

“The power rankings are supposed to help teams get in with eight or nine wins with a brutal schedule,” Vaughan said. “It should not reward teams and it should not be meant for teams that win two, three, or four games. That’s almost ludicrous.”

The final boys and girls basketball MIAA Power Rankings and brackets will be released on Saturday, Feb. 22.

Quick hits

Masconomet has had plenty to cheer about this season. On Friday night, the Chieftains boys and girls program clinched “perfect” Northeastern Conference seasons with wins over Salem. The boys, currently the eighth overall seed in Division 2 at 18-1, were led by Jimmy Farrell who scored a game-high 24 points.

The girls clinched a second straight league title with a 44-23 win on Tuesday. Samia Lalikos and Ava Allen are both averaging over 10 points per game for the Lady Chieftains who enter the final week of the regular season at 16-2.