


New rounds of critical fire weather are in the forecast for the central United States this week, days after devastating wildfires sparked in Oklahoma and Texas late last week and through the weekend.
The risk will be centered on the southern to central high Plains on Monday, then a Level 3 of 3 extremely critical risk spans from west Texas into southeastern New Mexico on Tuesday. From Monday to Wednesday, there will be a Level 2 of 3 risk for a more expansive zone that includes Oklahoma City and other areas that recently experienced major fires.
While warning of an “active fire weather pattern,” the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center said that “fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last few days and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread.”
It’s a pattern that has repeated several times across the central United States. Last week’s Oklahoma fires, which burned through at least 170,000 acres, were spawned by a very intense “bomb cyclone” low-pressure storm system that unleashed widespread wind gusts around 65 to 80 mph.
While the upcoming threat won’t be backed by the same powerful wind boost, the background dryness and strong winds are expected to lead to dangerous conditions nonetheless.
And while the huge fire fronts have been knocked back, hot spots from recent blazes also remain — and there’s a chance they can reignite.
What to know about conditions in the area
Low pressure is forecast to develop over the central Plains late Tuesday through Wednesday. While not on par with the last storm system, it is expected to become seasonably strong and could fuel snow and localized severe weather, as well as lots of wind.
About 50 million people are under fire-weather alerts or wind warnings ahead of its formation.
Red-flag warnings for imminent or ongoing wildfire threats are in place from the Texas-Mexico border to southern South Dakota, and then eastward to Iowa and Missouri. Portions of the high Plains are also under red-flag and high-wind warnings.
The most intense winds of this round are expected to sweep northeastward from southern New Mexico and West Texas on Tuesday through Kansas and the Midwest on Wednesday.
Widespread gusts of 55 to 65 mph are anticipated, with stronger gusts likely in some areas.
According to the Oklahoma Mesonet, more weather stations in the state clocked severe wind gusts (58 mph or greater) than on any other calendar day during the network’s 30-year history on Friday.
The week prior, the Mesonet also reported one of its windiest days to that point in time. The center’s Lake Carl Blackwell station, just west of Stillwater in north-central Oklahoma, was also melted in a major wildfire late Friday afternoon. It logged a temperature of 173 degrees before being destroyed.
Why all the high wind and fire threats?
Prolonged fire-weather conditions stem from a storm track that is persistently swinging low-pressure systems across the central Plains. Each one brings renewed dry and windy conditions, first Monday, then another round Tuesday and yet again on Friday.
Low-pressure systems are like whirlpools in the atmosphere; they vacuum air inward from all sides while spinning. Ahead of them, there’s a humid southerly flow that draws moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico, sometimes helping fuel severe weather including tornadoes.
But behind the systems, westerly winds bring in bone-dry air from the Desert Southwest.
The leading edge of this parched air mass is called the dryline. Sometimes the dryline initiates severe thunderstorms, if sufficient fuel is present ahead of the dry air. For Monday and Tuesday, however, the dryline will just bring arid air and wind — with moisture largely scoured out of the region by the big storm that just ended.
Relative humidities will drop to 8 to 15 percent across much of the southern and high Plains, leaving tinder-dry conditions.
Oklahoma and Texas are also in the midst of drought. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, Texas — especially the Big Bend — is experiencing the worst of it. About 80 percent of the state is abnormally dry or in drought, and roughly 8.7 percent is in “exceptional” drought, the highest category.
Fire weather will remain a concern until meaningful moisture arrives deeper into the spring, which is relatively typical year-to-year.
Fire season in the Plains is typically late winter into early spring, when powerful storms form before the greening of the landscape.
This year’s season has just been more extreme.