LOS ANGELES >> Oscar nominations will (probably) arrive Thursday morning, six days after they were originally scheduled to be announced, though with all that has happened to our city, doesn’t each day feel like it spans a month? Or at least a week? My New Year’s resolution should have been to stay in bed and flip the page to February.

Thanks to the delays, I’ve had extra time to ponder a few things, namely: Is the academy really going to ignore Denzel Washington’s brilliance in “Gladiator II”? What film fills out the last spot of the best picture field: “Sing Sing,” “Nickel Boys” or “September 5”? If people hate “Emilia Pérez” so much, why is it going to earn more Oscar nominations this year than any other movie?

Of course, as you no doubt know, none of these questions are actually important. But they can be, like awards shows, enjoyable distractions during trying times. So, without further fuss, here are my predictions for the main categories for the 97th Academy Awards.

Best picture

“Anora”

“The Brutalist”

“A Complete Unknown”

“Conclave”

“Dune: Part Two”

“Emilia Pérez”

“A Real Pain”

“Sing Sing”

“The Substance”

“Wicked”

Possible surprise: “September 5”

Possible snub: “Sing Sing”

“Emilia Pérez” will likely lead the field with a dozen nominations, maybe 13 if voters give Selena Gomez a pass for her accent. “The Brutalist” and “Conclave” won’t be far behind. And for those of you singing along at home, “Wicked” will be next in line, fervently hoping that writers branch voters give it an adapted screenplay nod and a path toward winning. To take a page from its lexicon, they’re probably going to be devestrated at the disrespectation.

The back end is where things get confusifying. (Sorry. I’ll stop.) The Oscars haven’t embraced body-horror films over the years, but “The Substance” has been widely seen and, it seems, appreciated for its message of self-acceptance. It’s safe. “Sing Sing” hit me in the heart but has struggled to find an audience, both with moviegoers and awards voters. “Nickel Boys” has its admirers, but the decision to shoot subjectively from the point of view of his protagonists has been a challenge for many. “September 5” scored with the Producers Guild and is an easy movie to watch at home on the small screen. Maybe that’s enough. I’m stubbornly sticking with “Sing Sing,” however, for that last spot.

Director

Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”

Sean Baker, “Anora”

Edward Berger, “Conclave”

Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”

Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”

Possible surprise: James Mangold

Possible snub: Fargeat

The Directors Guild nominated Audiard, Baker, Berger, Corbet and Mangold for “A Complete Unknown.” But the academy’s directors branch hasn’t rubber-stamped the DGA’s slate since 2010, so someone’s probably out. Audiard, Baker and Corbet seem safe, as their movies have prevailed with critics groups and guild voters. The “Conclave” campaign seems to be banking on being the beautifully made movie that nearly everyone likes. Is that enough for this demanding group of voters to put Berger in? Perhaps not when the options include Fargeat’s gonzo work on “The Substance” and RaMell Ross’ expressionistic approach to “Nickel Boys,” a movie that feels like the most-directed film of the year. Then there’s Payal Kapadia for the extraordinary beauty and craft of “All We Imagine as Light.” The one certainty: Unless Denis Villeneuve makes it in for “Dune: Part Two,” the slate will be composed entirely of first-time nominees, which hasn’t happened since James Cameron won for “Titanic.”

Actress

Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Hard Truths”

Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”

Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”

Mikey Madison, “Anora”

Demi Moore, “The Substance”

Possible surprise: Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”

Possible snub: Jean-Baptiste

When I wrote about this race a month ago, the headline read: “There’s not enough room for all the deserving lead actress nominees.” And, apparently, there wasn’t enough room in my brain because I omitted Pamela Anderson, who secured a Screen Actors Guild Awards nomination for her lovely work as the veteran dancer in “The Last Showgirl.” I can’t completely dismiss Angelina Jolie (“Maria”) or Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”), though, if recognized, they could be the sole nominees from their films. (Not a great sign.) More likely, for the last spot it’s between Torres, a Golden Globe winner for playing the defiant woman holding her family together in “I’m Still Here,” and Jean-Baptiste, who swept the three major critics groups. “Hard Truths” is a difficult movie, but Jean-Baptiste is so good at showing the pain behind her character’s misanthropy. I think she’s undeniable.

Actor

Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”

Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”

Daniel Craig, “Queer”

Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”

Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”

Possible surprise: Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”

Possible snub: Craig

Talking with voters, I’m not hearing much enthusiasm for Daniel Craig or “Queer,” though his daring, image-altering turn in the movie is the kind of performance that the academy usually can’t resist. (He’s better in the “Knives Out” movies. But I digress.) But what are the alternatives, apart from, say, loaning out the final slot to the lead actress field? Maybe Stan, who won a Golden Globe for playing a struggling actor with neurofibromatosis in the dark satire “A Different Man.”