When the NHL revealed the salary cap ceiling would be increasing significantly in each of the next three seasons, it left everyone from fans to players to general managers alike wondering what this new economic boom would mean.

The announcement came Jan. 31, one week after the Avalanche traded Mikko Rantanen to the Carolina Hurricanes. It didn’t help the Avs keep Rantanen. It did help them retain Martin Necas, with an eight-year, $92 million contract and an $11.5 million cap hit through 2034.

The circumstances and timing were different, but the Avs are likely thankful they were able to find “the sweet spot” with Necas.

“I think No. 1 is the (average annual value). That’s the big one,” Avs GM Chris MacFarland said when asked what the critical factors were for him. “We’re in that cycle where we’re trying to win. You can have this wealth of incredible players and three or four of them, but if you can’t win … we’re in this to try and win. You’ve got to try and balance the market, your internal comps and your future structure. We just felt like this was the sweet spot.”

The NHL’s announcement in late January was unprecedented. This league had never publicly revealed what the projected cap ceiling would be this far in advance. And the numbers were dizzying. What happens when five years of almost no growth is followed by an explosion adding more than $25 million to every team’s budget by 2027-28?

Well, the early stages might not be what a lot of people expected.

While the NBA has had seismic increases to its salary cap, the result has been an era of unprecedented player movement. Superstars have switched teams like never before.

Now it’s the NHL’s turn … right? The early returns suggest the opposite.

NHL general managers have craved the ability to hoard core players for years. Giving all 32 clubs more breathing room below the cap has helped them do it.

Rantanen was traded twice before signing with the Dallas Stars. Mitch Marner was traded just before the free-agent market opened to Vegas, and he signed an identical eight-year, $96 million deal with the Golden Knights.

But Marner following Rantanen wasn’t a sign of the floodgates opening. Nikolai Ehlers did sign with a new team, ostensibly helping to replace Necas and then Rantanen in Carolina.

The free-agent class of 2025 wasn’t a huge one for forwards, but the class of 2026 looked spicy, particularly with another increase to the cap coming for next season.

Instead, the dominoes have started falling, and nearly every marquee player who is currently playing on the final year of his contract already has one in place for 2026-27. Necas was just the latest, joining Kirill Kaprizov, Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel and Kyle Connor with new mega-deals before the calendar even reached November.

Five of the top 13 contracts for the 2026-27 season by average annual value were just signed in a span of 31 days. And one of the biggest reasons why the Avs needed to get a deal done with Necas was not just that it strips away the uncertainty that loomed over the Rantanen situation last year, or that if he continues to produce like he has in the first month, the price tag could have kept going up.

It’s because the alternatives to replace him are drying up. The cost to replace Necas might have been severe — not on the cap sheet, but in the standings.

Winnipeg dealt with a similar situation when Connor signed. So did Minnesota with Kaprizov’s $17 million-per-year whopper. Is Connor as good as Marner or Rantanen and therefore worth $12 million per season? Maybe not, but the cost of not having that player might have been the end of this era for the Jets, or derailing an era the Wild think might be about to begin with Kaprizov as the fulcrum around some exciting young players.

The top players who could still be free agents in July, or traded before the deadline, are Artemi Panarin with the Rangers, the Sabres’ Alex Tuch and Kings scorer Adrian Kempe. Given Panarin’s age, not to mention his recent alleged off-ice behavior, and the (relative) ceiling for Tuch and Kempe, none of those players would likely be a one-for-one replacement if Necas went elsewhere.

Any of them could be close, and maybe Nathan MacKinnon would help them find new heights like it appears he’s doing with Necas. But they’re all older — Panarin is much older — and there is little guarantee that any of them are actually attainable.

All three of those clubs are going to try to join the trend of locking down the big-money guys well before the open market is an option. Beyond that trio of players, the true difference-makers up front approaching free agency are … who, exactly?

This summer was supposed to be all about the forwards, but the Class of 2027 is much weaker up front. Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes will dominate the discussion, and both will likely sign well in advance of the market opening.

The Avs were fortunate that Necas was available. He had a rocky recent history with his previous club. He was also far from a sure thing to sign with the Avs, but getting him to Denver and getting him comfortable next to MacKinnon and with the organization helped.

If Necas puts together a strong playoff run or three with the Avs, the long tail of the Rantanen deal will be considered a success. NHL clubs don’t trade homegrown stars in January ahead of a potential free agency. They typically hang on and hang on, and something gets done. Marner and the Maple Leafs were very much the exception to the rule.

But had the Avs needed to go down that road again, the chances of lightning striking twice were not nearly as great. And they knew it.

“You know who’s available, whether it’s a trade — and sometimes it’s a very small window when players are available — or who the free agents to be are,” MacFarland said. “As you guys see, with the cap going up, there might not be the pool (available) that everyone thinks.”

Avalanche beat writer Corey Masisak can be reached at cmasisak@denverpost.com