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Amid the Detroit Lions’ success under general manager Brad Holmes, there’s been much talk about the team’s contending window. “They better win it now,” they say, “because they’re not going to be able to keep all of these young stars.”
However, after reports earlier this week that the NFL is expected to dramatically increase its salary cap for the second year in a row, the Lions’ issue of finding a way to keep all of their draft hits might become less of a problem.
Several news outlets reported the 2025 salary cap is expected to land between $277.5 million and $281.5 million, marking an increase of at least $22.1 million, after the cap already increased by $30.6 million the offseason prior. For context, the minimum $52.7 million increase over the last two years is more than the total increase in the salary cap from 2018 to 2023 ($47.6 million).
Every team in the league will benefit from a jump in the salary cap, to be sure, but figuring out a way to stay under the cap is only half the battle. The other part is acquiring the right players — ones that will live up to their pay — which the Lions have done better than most teams since Holmes took over as GM in 2021. What good is cap room if you spend it on the wrong assets, desperately trying to fill holes in free agency by signing players outside your building to top-of-the-market deals?
Much can change from year to year, but the Lions have about six players from the 2022 and ’23 draft classes who are on a trajectory to be among the highest-paid players at their position. This comes after they signed three players from their 2021 draft class — wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, offensive tackle Penei Sewell and defensive tackle Alim McNeill — to similar extensions during the last year.
How are they going to manage it all? By betting on the cap’s continual rise.
A variety of factors — daily fantasy, sports betting, increased accessibility of games — have made the NFL a hotter commodity than ever before, and everybody wants a piece of it. Amazon is firmly in the mix; Netflix is now getting games. And when the league’s media rights deal goes up for renewal after the 2029 season, one has to think the rabid appetite for football will only cause another explosion in the salary cap.
The timing of the next media rights deal is significant. Hutchinson will soon be eligible to become one of the highest-paid defenders in NFL history, and while he’s deserving, the mere prospect of what it might do to Detroit’s cap situation (in tandem with extensions already signed) can be a bit frightening.
But Hutchinson’s new deal won’t kick in until 2026, and with the way the cap has jumped in recent years, we might be living in a completely different world by the time he (and other proven Lions producers to be drafted in recent years) reach the back half of their second contracts.
From 2020 (when the last CBA went into effect) to 2025, the cap has increased by 40% — even with a 7.9% decrease from 2020 to 2021 due to the lingering effects of the pandemic. This should allow the Lions to backload some important contracts and maintain their Super Bowl window while keeping a decent number of the players who initially took them to the top.
Does this mean the Lions have the future flexibility to go out and make a trade for someone like Cleveland Browns sack machine Myles Garrett? That still might be a stretch, but while I’ve publicly balked at the idea of Detroit making a “marquee” signing this year — only because of the sheer volume of upcoming extension candidates — the recent salary cap news has me rethinking the viability of the Lions making a splash.
One of the more interesting flashpoints in the Holmes era will be upon us this spring. Hutchinson, wide receiver Jameson Williams and All-Pro safety Kerby Joseph headline the list of Detroit players who are eligible for extensions. Out of this group, the one I have the closest eye on is Joseph. I think the Lions will hold off on extending Williams for at least another year, and I’m certain they’ll do everything in their power to get a deal done with Hutchinson eventually.
But Joseph plays a position that’s been traditionally undervalued, and even after an All-Pro season, the Lions have to consider that fellow safety Brian Branch is also going to be looking for the same type of extension next offseason. If both of those guys receive fair market value, you’re looking at a safety tandem that’s being paid in the neighborhood of $36 million to $40 million. Holmes’ willingness — or lack thereof — to extend both Joseph and Branch could tell us a lot about where the Lions believe their cap situation is heading.
Regardless of the individual decisions on Holmes’ agenda, perpetually massive spikes in the salary cap like we’ve seen the last couple of years should only benefit the Lions’ quest to become perennial contenders.